Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/18/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
This one isn't going to go as long as usual because of other work stuff. Apologies in advance
Brian
9:05
Kyle Seager looks like he has to practice high-fives
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
I have to imagine he wakes up every single day flabbergasted that he somehow managed to survive the Mariners' player-development system
florida man
9:05
Jeff, which do you think is the most accurate projection system out there? Zips? Steamer? other?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Honestly I think they're all basically the same. They use much of the same information to generate much of the same result, and while of course they're not identical, all the differences are at the margins. If System A is 1% more accurate than System B, that's cool, but it's not enough to say that System A is awesome and System B is useless
9:07
I'm happy with our Steamer/ZiPS blend. I don't think we're going to have anything better any time soon. In all the years of trying to forecast baseball players, it's not like we've gotten all that much better at it
Gest
9:08
How much does the Alvarez signing effect trumbos playing time? I noticed his depth chart numbers took a big hit.
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Shouldn't be a huge effect. Definitely a little bit of a reduction, just because the DH slot isn't a black hole anymore, but Trumbo will still be a regular
dmo
9:09
Has Jesus Montero lost the platoon job yet considering Lee’s and Romero’s performances? And does Montero have any trade value if the Mariners want to get something out of him rather than putting him through waivers? Also, still a chance M’s bullpen is better than last year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Montero does not have any trade value. And the bullpen should be better than last year, when it was one of the five or so worst in the majors. I don't think it's going to be a strength, especially if Cishek doesn't rebound all the way, but there's enough depth in there when Scribner is healthy again
carl
9:10
What do you make of Juan Nicasio? It's ST and he's pitched 10 innings... but boy is it hard to ignore what he's done...
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
I like him as a multi-inning reliever. I don't think he'd be a great starting option, but we know he can dominate righties, without any improvement
daneyko
9:12
the small sample of Jon Gray in 2015 was not very good. Do you expect a decent season ? 160 IP, 155 K, 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP ?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
To Gray's credit, even though his ERA was bad, he did have an 87 FIP- and a 99 xFIP-. He's a big-league starter, and I don't think your numbers are unrealistic. Maybe 4.10 is too difficult in Colorado, but I like him enough and he can handle lefties
cargo
9:13
the stats of (Ben Paulsen and Mark Reynolds) could be the same with Lucas Duda ?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
No part of me is counting on that
JDogg
9:15
Kevin Pillar ... what are the chances he gets to lead off? And if he does, how do you think he finishes the year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
Seems like it's a virtual lock he at least opens as the leadoff guy. He might not stay there depending on whether Saunders stays healthy and hits, but Pillar will get the first crack. He's not a great hitter, so I expect he finishes the year as not a great hitter
Ronnie
9:16
"Born to Love Volcanos" by the Dead Milkmen or "Eruption" by Van Halen?
Daniel Carroll
9:17
Given that he's a year older, should M's fans be worried at all about Nelson Cruz not yet hitting a HR in spring?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
He didn't homer in spring training 2014, either. Then he slugged .525
Bob
9:20
Arenado and LeMahieu for Giolito, Ross and Turner. Who says no?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Nationals. Way too much value to give up
JDogg
9:23
who says no .. Tigers trade Castellanos and Moya for Longoria
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
I spent maybe too long thinking about this
9:24
And I didn't even get anywhere great, but my sense is the Rays would still say no. As much as Longoria is a player in decline, there's too much risk in the return, and Longoria's future salaries are not outlandish
Ronnie
9:24
Do you think Jose Altuve can dunk?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
No, but I bet he can get closer to me, and I'm 6'5
*than me. *than me.
William
9:25
With the potential expansion issue coming up, what do you think the likelihood of Montreal getting back a team is?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
I think it'll happen eventually
Guest
9:25
whats your prediction for how many wins the mariners get this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
84
Wanted to type 83 but I guess I'm an optimist
Ray Nicholas
9:25
Boxberger down? Who next? Colome? Farquhar? Some crazy move?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
I don't think there's a crazy move happening at this point in the spring
Guest
9:27
Is there something BP is seeing that everyone else isn't with the Rays projection?
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