Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/3/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:00
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
This time atypically on schedule!
CamdenWarehouse
9:00
wha? on time???
Jeff Sullivan
9:00
I could've even started early if I wanted to. I'm on top of the ball!
9:01
Waiting for Bork, waiting for Bork...
Well, we'll see if Bork shows up
Fake Bork
9:02
Hi Friend?
Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Almost
Ronnie
9:02
Do you pronounce the "la" in lava like the "la" in lavender or like the "la" in la-di-da?
Jeff Sullivan
9:02
The latter
The Average Sports Fan
9:02
For what team with the lowest projected win total can you build a realistic path to the playoffs? What is it?
Jeff Sullivan
9:03
Well let's just try with the terrible 65-97 Padres http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
Firstly, the bullpen excels with Capps, Buchter, Hand, Maurer, etc. This I wouldn't consider too unlikely
9:05
Myers keeps hitting, and Hedges brings over his offensive improvements from last season. Schimpf, Solarte, Jankowski, Renfroe -- these aren't *terrible* supporting pieces. Let's say Margot resembles an average CF or something like that
9:06
There might be just enough pitching you can squeeze out of Chacin, Richard, Cahill, Perdomo, Friedrich. I know full well this sounds insane but there isn't nothing here, especially if Hedges helps them out and the bullpen helps Andy Green get the starters out early
Then you throw in some BaseRuns luck. Voila! The Padres had everything go right and they made the playoffs!
9:07
If that's too much, I probably wouldn't have to work too hard to get the 76-86 Diamondbacks into the postseason
Q-Ball
9:08
Does Mike Trout still have the most hypothetical trade value in baseball? Or with his higher salaries and 4 years of control, do you think Bryant may be passing him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Right now it's probably either Bryant or Seager. Trout would still be extremely close, just because of what he's clearly proven himself to be, but Bryant and Seager have cheaper control, and that money is crucial
Gest
9:10
If you could watch only 3 players this spring training, who would you choose?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Players with something to prove. Felix, Keon Broxton, Alex Meyer?
I tried to watch Meyer the other afternoon but the camera angle was one of the worst I've ever seen.
Matty
9:11
I have the Indians vs nationals in the World Series. Would you enjoy that matchup?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
I would enjoy any matchup in the World Series so long as the games themselves gave me something to write about
Andrew Miller vs. Bryce Harper would give me something to write about
JT
9:12
Jeff, does Strasburg ever have the breakout season we’re all waiting for? People perceive him as an ace but looking at his player page, reality doesn’t really match the perception. He has the talent clearly, he’s been ace-like during certain stretches of his partial seasons but he’s always hurt and the only time he has stayed healthy an entire season he was worth “only” 4.5 WAR. Plus, FIP seems to like him quite a bit more than other metrics. Are we looking at another Rich Harden where we spend the rest of our lives wondering what-if?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
I think there's a six-win season or two in there, but I'm not buying him as a developing durable workhorse. Clearly, that's going to hold him back
kevinthecomic
9:15
What is the biggest obstacle Lewis Brinson needs to overcome this year? Strikeouts, Staying Healthy, Something Else?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Just needs to generally improve his approach. The Brewers, at least, can be patient here, with Broxton/Santana/Braun already in the bigs
Bob
9:15
Read a few articles about process of Heyward's swing reconstruction. Have you heard anything about how it looks? Keith Law said yesterday in his chat he hadn't heard anything positive.
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
This is one of those things that's going to be determined after the fact. It's good if it works and it's not if it doesn't. We can't just look at a guy taking swings in March and determine whether or not he made the right adjustments. No one is nearly that good at swing analysis
9:17
Heyward, for whatever it's worth, has made very frequent swing adjustments. Seldom has he ever looked smooth, but he still has a good career batting line. Raul Ibanez and Hunter Pence have had what I consider reasonably ugly swings and they still produced
Jack
9:18
What do you think of Casey Gillaspie? He doesn't seem to get much love despite the fact that he was a first-round pick, is a switch hitter with power and patience, and had a 145 WRC+ in 357 PAs at Double-A last year before being called up to Triple-A and posting a 163 WRC+ in 203 PAs. Do you think he supplants LoMo as TB's first baseman at some point this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
I'm going to be honest with you: I've never once thought about Casey Gillaspie. Looking at him, though, and considering the low bar that Logan Morrison sets, a midseason replacement wouldn't be at all surprising. Gillaspie might not blossom into anything special, but Morrison never did, either
Sam
9:20
As a Yankees fan, I have to say with the way spring training is going, that it's probably down hill from here
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Going uphill is tiring
Guest
9:21
KATOH seems really high on little Vlad. Do you agree with it, and will we see him in the bigs by his 20 b-day?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
I will never be able to be so optimistic about a player with so little a performance record. Doesn't make me right and KATOH wrong; I'm just cautious with that entire player pool
Eric
9:21
Phil Hughes made his 2nd start and was consistently at 87-88 MPH on the radar gun. Do you think he can ramp up to 90? Are all pitchers in ST sitting at 2-4 MPH below their normal velocity?
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