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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/30/18
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Alex
10:04
With Tyler Flowers seeming to be missing significant time with his oblique injury, do the Braves start Suzuki every game, look to acquire a cheap catcher, or some other alternative? Alex Jackson, our only real catcher prospect, seems to be pretty far out from the majors, especially defensively.
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Chris Stewart is still around, right? Somewhere? He's made for this
Billy Beane
10:04
AJ Puk needs TJS and I wonder if we all love a sport that is basically trash.
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Football still has it worse
10:05
But, yeah. Puk, Cotton, Honeywell, De Leon, and (kind of) Eovaldi. Elbows have already significantly damaged the Cinderella aspirations of two AL dark horses
Upton Sr.
10:05
Main takeaway from opening day?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Baseball is so much better than no baseball
Jg
10:05
Is Schwarbers D actually a problem or nah?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
He is not a good defensive outfielder, and he will never be a good defensive outfielder
But it's not like he's unplayable. He's good enough to be acceptably bad, as long as he's hitting
Tyler
10:06
Your taking the over on 55.5 home runs.  Do you realize how insane that sounds?  Not that your wrong, but still insane.
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
Stanton is projected for 58!
10:07
Stanton is amazing
AT
10:08
Why did Garrett Cooper get the start in Miami over Maybin?   Not that it really matters...
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
I don't know. Maybe Maybin was under the weather. Maybe something else. Could just be that, because Cooper is 27, the Marlins want to give him a chance to see if they have something. Maybin is more of a known entity
zvazda
10:10
I've been doing a fair amount of looking at all-time WAR leaders over the last few days...
How reliable is it as you go further back in history?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
The further back you go, the worse the data is. For much of baseball history, our only baserunning data includes steals and caught steals. And, obviously, the defensive metrics are decreasingly reliable as you flip back through the decades
In general, the good players are still good players and the bad ones are still bad ones, but the error bars grow
KilleBrews
10:11
Where do you find a players SwStr% for individual pitches?
Jeff Sullivan
seth
10:12
will statcast estimated distances need to be adjusted at the new Arizona Humidor?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
The humidor will suppress exit velocity
It won't have an effect on how exit velocity translates to distance
Guest
10:13
As I have been saying all off-season, Mike Freaking Scioscia is going to skewer all of the front office's efforts by continuing to roll out Pujols in the 4-hole
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
Albert Pujols had a home run and a +.113 WPA. Mike Trout went hitless and had a -.252 WPA
Alex
10:14
Now that we know you don’t need to be on a good team to win MVP (Stanton last year), what odds would you put on Freddie Freeman to win NL MVP?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
15%?
GS
10:14
Nimmo on base 4 times in his first 2018 start. How hard should the Mets try to work him into the everyday lineup?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
He should be playing almost every day, but it would be fine if he finished around 550 PA
There's value in rest
Moltar
10:14
I didn't watch the game last night, but seems like the humidor didn't exactly keep the ball in the park in Arizona. How long until we can ascertain if there's a noticeable difference?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Even after a month or so, we should see some drop in EV
David
10:15
Only one start, but it looked like true junk balling from Felix last night, curious to see how goes with more starts.
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
In terms of pitch mix, wasn't too different. Plurality of fastballs, lots of curves and changeups, topping out around 91-92
THe law
10:16
So what if 2017 second half Giancarlo is the real Giancarlo now? Could he then have a claim to baseball's best player?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
Second-half Stanton had a 175 wRC+. Mike Trout projects for a 172 wRC+, with better secondary skills
Brian
10:17
Its weird to be excited about Felix going 5.1 innings,  but his stuff looked great!  He's pegged at ~2 WAR in the projections--are you allowing yourself to get at little excited about him returning to form?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
I'm allowing my optimism to take center stage over my realism
Joey Lucchesi Day
10:18
Time to get excited..
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I knew he was coming quick. I didn't know he was coming this quick
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