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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/30/18
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Mac
10:36
Why do some some teams have an off day today in the middle of a series after playing 1 game?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Rain-out protection
I don't know why the Mariners are included among them
Davie Ping Pong
10:36
Do you like any of Vince Velasquez, Brent Suter, or Joey Luccesi as breakout candidates this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Not really. I like them all for their talent, but I don't trust Velasquez's health, I think Suter's upside is low, and I didn't know who Lucchesi was until about a month ago
John
10:37
Which number is higher at the end of the year, Stanton homers or Marlins wins?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Marlins wins, barely
CarrotJuice
10:39
Re Syndergaard BABIP: if you take his Statcast xBA and subtract all ABs that ended in the ball not being put in play, his "xBABIP" (not an official stat on Baseball Savant) was ~.315 in 2015 and ~.324 in 2016. So maybe he doesn't have a BABIP "problem" per se, but it seems like it isn't just bad defense causing it.
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
Syndergaard's xwOBA on batted balls in 2016: .340. That ranked him 18th out of 142 starters
In 2015, he ranked 29th out of 150 starters
If anything, it turns out he's a *weak*-contact pitcher!
Hans Gruber
10:41
Speaking of breakouts, could Ketel Marte come through this season with some powwwaaa (power, sorry). Maybe a breakout? He’s got a good eye and I heard that helps things like this.
Jeff Sullivan
Rubber Sand
10:41
In your opinion, what percent of a home run is a pitcher's fault and what percent is just completely random(due to batter, ballpark, temp etc)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
Guessing it's like 25% pitcher, 70% hitter, 5% randomness
Maybe that gives the hitter too much credit, but he's the guy swinging the bat
Dan (sad Texas fan)
10:43
Is Willie Calhoun kinda Mookie Betts (in the box only, obviously) but with a bit more pop, no wheels? I feel like his high contact, moderate walk, low K, good power profile is a rare commodity nowadays. Annnnndddd, I'm really hoping the Rangers quit trotting Rua out there in the interim...
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Betts walked more than Calhoun, and also, if you take Betts but subtract the wheels, you don't have Betts anymore
10:44
But Calhoun's pure bat-to-ball skills are still plus. He'll hit. Will he do enough else well? In a way it's kind of like the Kyle Schwarber question
Schmoo
10:45
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
The middle one, obviously
Strikeout rates are always inflated after Day One since that's when most of the aces pitch
Sean
10:45
What's your level of concern about whatever is going on with Josh Donaldson's arm?  I feel like not being able to throw is problematic
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
3/10. Looks kind of weird, but dozens of pitchers experience something similar during the spring
Daniel Carroll
10:46
I'm presuming that ALWC1 is the NYY or BOS team that doesn't win ALE, so the "ALWC2 Division" would be what, SEA, LAA, TOR, TB, MIN?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
I'd include Oakland, although it hurts that they'll be without Puk
Pham
10:47
Hi Jeff! I worried about Pham's K/BB in spring. What do you think?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
I don't think it was bad enough to be worried about
10:49
Last spring, Pham had a .599 OPS, and 32% strikeouts. This spring, Pham had a .706 OPS, and 29% strikeouts
Julie
10:49
Do you think that Ohtani joining the major leagues this early will hinder his development as a player?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
I do think he could probably benefit from a month or two in Triple-A, especially since he didn't get to do a whole lot in 2017, but I don't think the damage will be significant. He's talented enough to give it a go against the best in the world
Mountie Votto
10:51
Thoughts on Cody Reed getting the Reds' temporary 5th SP role over Amir Garrett? Price says it's so Garrett can contribute more against LH-heavy lineups, but it seems like a bummer after Garrett's spring
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
I don't think there's anything here worth reading into. The Reds are going to have to sort out like ten young starters this season. If Garrett pitches well, he's going to get his 20-25 starts eventually, first series be damned
Tyler
10:51
If you had to put a number on Stanton’s home runs what would it be?
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
60
Terrible Ted
10:52
How does one work 8+ hours per day of baseball in without alarming long weekend family visitors?
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
Warn them
If they're family, they should probably already know what you're about
Kevin
10:52
I contend that looking at Fangraphs leaderboards after opening is the best way for a novice to understand WAR. Matt Davidson worth half a win; Jose Urena is a negative third of a win. It's pretty intuitive at the micro level!
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
I love single-day WARs! Even though this early, we don't have anything for defense
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