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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/31/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:25
I'm concerned about anyone coming off an arm injury and Nola will need to re-prove himself to me
9:26
Still love him, on ability, but I need to know he's OK
Bork
9:26
I know this isn't the case, but if an MLB team wanted to murder August they've pretty much set themselves up perfectly, haven't they? Nobody knows where he is or hears from him, and we all just kind of accept it. OH GOD IS AUGUST OKAY
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
He texted me yesterday!
Or someone texted me yesterday using his phone
9:27
I guess I don't know if he's alive
ChiSox2020
9:27
Jose Quintana said he's a huge fan of the Jimmy Fallon show. Does that explain why teams don't want him in their clubhouse?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Baseball players have awful taste
Charlie
9:27
I just want to say that I appreciate the way you reply to every email sent to Effectively Wild.
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
It's not every email. That would kill me. And if there are *more* emails, well, I'm about tapped out. So!
Ross
9:28
What is your current level of worry about Smyly and the M's staff as a whole?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
7/10, 6/10
3/10 for the bullpen
Mike sixel
9:29
Should I go try to see whales from the shore this afternoon, taste beer, hike near the city, or finish packing for my move this weekend? Re baseball: How long until the Twins get at least one playoff vote in staff predictions?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Go hike at Cape Lookout to search for whales at the end. Six years
Jack
9:30
Which managers get fired this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
I'm guessing Ausmus is on top of the probability list
SunTrust
9:32
How do park-adjusted stats account for a brand-new park like Suntrust field? Assume it's neutral until proven otherwise? Or make an estimate based on the park dimensions?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
So, I don't actually know, but what I *assume* is that they call everything neutral, and then the numbers are adjusted retroactively when we have a year+ of new data
9:34
There's a shift in 2012, corresponding to the team moving into Marlins Park, but I don't know when that shift worked its way into the numbers. I bet, in actual 2012, it was even 100s across the board
Too dangerous to assume park effects based on dimensions
merlin
9:34
Name one (or more than one) pitcher not thought of a true ace today that will possibly be thought of as a true ace heading into 2018
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
JAMES
PAXTONNNNNNNNNNNN
Glasnow Half Full
9:35
6 months from now the Pirates have won the NL Central. How did it happen?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
You threw strikes
McCutchen bounced most of the way back, the good players stayed healthy, Rivero became an elite reliever
One of the Cubs' good starters got hurt early on
Maddux in a Row
9:38
Hey Jeff. I heard a less-than-serious proposal that teams should list a reliever as their starter for road games so they can pinch hit for him in the event they bat around in the first, and still not lose their "real" starter. Besides the sad loss of the W for the true starter, is this within the rules?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
I can't find, in a quick search, whether this violates any rules. I could see it either way. But it comes with the downside of burning that one pitcher. Granted, in theory, you could just list the previous day's starter
Feels like the sort of thing that would've been tried if it were doable, but you'd talking about such a small potential impact, given the unlikelihood of a massive top of the first
9:40
And if you *have* such a massive top of the first, the leverage of that PH at-bat is low
Ted
9:40
With Bryant eligible for 4 years of arbitration starting next year, what might a 4 year extension look like? Or does Boras just laugh Theo off the phone when he calls...
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Bryant already has a signing bonus of almost $7 million, plus his other income since. He's not as incentivized as, say, Jose Ramirez to sign an extension at this point. I know the Nationals agreed to a small two-year extension a few years back with Bryce Harper, so that's a data point
9:43
I guess you asked about four years, not five years or more. Can't see why Bryant would want to give up free-agency years.
9:44
I could see something like four years and $55 - 60 million
Simon
9:45
I own Madson & Casilla as a dual closer threat. Would you dump Casilla for a better RP option, or hold steady to see how things shake out the first month.
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
The A's have like five or six pretty good relievers who could close. Good luck
Tim
9:46
Who wins Sunday's Opening Day games? On a related note, holy shit, real baseball starts in 49 hours
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