Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/31/17
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The Average Sports Fan
10:06
I too am on the Aaron Altherr bandwagon. Is 100-120 games a realistic hope for him this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
I think he'll get into a bunch of games if only because he's going to be used as a corner OF defensive replacement. Hoping for 400 PA, while 250-300 is more realistic for now
Q-Ball
10:07
What contending teams do you feel like have a limited contention window that is closing? Would you put WSN, BAL, TOR in that category? Who else?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
Orioles, Jays, Rangers. That's the top of my list
v2micca
10:08
I was supposed to file my taxes this weekend. With baseball back, there is in increasing chance that doesn't happen.
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Do your taxes!
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
10:09
Is there a sabermetric equivalent of the Mendoza line?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
0 WAR?
Makes it pretty easy, and it comes with obvious meaning
Maddux in a Row
10:09
Lucas Duda is the most polarizing player (Top 10 1B! Mets should just cut him!) no one really cares to talk about. Agree?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
I don't know if those two can work together in the same statement
10:10
Can a player be both polarizing and un-discussed at the same time?
But I do agree that no one really *wants* to have a conversation about Lucas Duda, which is funny, considering how many people do want to have a conversation about Greg Bird
CubFan
10:11
You expecting much from Price if/when he comes back from injury? My concern is he's pitching with a partial tear of his UCL. In an earlier interview he said he was told if he were younger he'd have the surgery?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
My expectations for Price and, therefore, the Red Sox, have been reduced significantly
Steve
10:11
What's your outlook on the Twins? They were certainly unlucky last season (BaseRuns had them at 71 wins), and there is some offensive potential.
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
There will be a lot of runs
A lot of runs are going to score in Twins games
Erik
10:12
Are Britton, Miller, and Chapman worse off for being left-handed? If you aren't going to be a specialist, it's better to have the platoon advantave more often, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I think they benefit some from possessing uncommon stuff that comes from an uncommon side. So I don't think it's much of a disadvantage overall
10:15
2 minutes, phone call
Q-Ball
10:17
Is there anything we should look for in spring training as far as carryover to regular season? Not the stats, but what...velocity? Power surge?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
Velocity is a good one. You can keep track of big changes in strikeout rates. While it would take some digging, you might be able to learn from changes in GB%, too
10:18
I think that, like, John Jaso has dramatically trimmed his grounder rate this spring? Which ties in to what the Pirates were saying about production coming in the air. So there's something to think about
Carl
10:19
I was looking through the SP team projections and ranked them 1-30 and then I was looking at the SP WAR ranks from last year and ranked them 1-30 and the projections were higher for every single rank by an average of 2.5 wins (75 wins total). Do you think the SP WAR projections need to be recalibrated? I know injuries happen but that should be baked into the projection and it seems off to me that there is such a massive projection improvement.
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
One thing to consider is that in any given year there are only 1,000 WAR, but for some reason we're currently projecting for like 1,050. That's just an overshoot I can't explain.
10:22
Right now, we're projecting starters to be worth about 38% of all WAR. Over the past three actual seasons, starters have been worth about 34% of all WAR
10:23
That points to something being off. Maybe we're too conservative when it comes to trying to fold in injury risk. Plans, as you know, go awry. What's most important, though, is the order, the relative rankings of teams. Those should remain valid
Dustin
10:23
My son was born Wednesday. Will he grow to hate me for raising him a Braves fan?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
He'll grow to hate you for a whole bunch of reasons
Timbersnaps
10:24
do you enjoy laughter?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
Yes
Ross
10:24
Rank the likeliness of a 5 WAR season: Cano, Seager, Paxton, Felix and Segura.
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
From greatest to least: Cano, Seager, Segura, Paxton, Felix
:(
John
10:25
On the subject of a long DL stints, you think a AAAA player has ever faked an injury when he thinks he's getting sent down soon? Get an extra 15-60 days major league pay
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
That's a good question. I assume in any given situation like that, the team would look at things extra closely.
Josh
10:25
What stories are you most interested tracking in the first month? HR rate continuing? KEON BROXTON contact rate? Anything you want to look at on May 1st to see what happened?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
I'll be watching the homer rate and the strike-zone size
Also will be looking for a continuation of the rumored fly-ball trend
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