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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/9/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:04
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friend
Dylan
9:05
I know it’s early and spring training but this is the best you could hope for out of Dan Vogelbach, right? How encouraged can we be?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
.636 OBP, with as many home runs as strikeouts!
9:06
Ultimately, the ceiling is low -- Vogelbach will never be valued for his athleticism. We've seen how even a good version of this player is viewed in the free-agent market. But he should be an option if and when Ryon Healy disappoints his new employer
TF Fredrik
9:06
Are you a fan of parity or would you rather MLB have a pure free market and let anything go a la European soccer? Youth academies, no cap, no revenue sharing, no draft etc.
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
I like parity, but I've also never followed a sport that doesn't try to have it. So even the basic idea of European soccer rules is foreign to me
I imagine I would prefer the MLB way anyhow
Adenolith
9:08
Zimmerman's note that the pitch readings from Salt River Fields might be running high has me concerned about Greinke’s velocity dip. Is it too early to start worrying?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
It's seldom too early to worry about a velocity dip, especially given that Greinke has already started losing some of his miles, but it feels like Greinke has had velocity questions like eight springs in a row
9:09
He's pretty much always recovered. And I think, when Greinke was signed, he was viewed as someone who could age gracefully even with a slower fastball, because the command and movement are there
If Greinke is throwing 85, that's not good, but I bet he'll get up to the 89-91 range by June
Dontrelle Willis
9:11
Why do contracts ever include mutual options if they're never actually exercised?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
He found that, over two decades examined, just four of 100 mutual options were mutually exercised
9:13
Part of the function, I think, is that mutual options tend to come with a seven-figure buyout, so that pushes some of the cost into the future for the team
9:14
And mutual options also serve to inflate the terms. In the Mike Moustakas case, he signed for one year and $6.5 million, but it's easy to see there's an existing option that would make it an eight-figure deal. It won't *actually* be an eight-figure deal, but it just looks better, which is psychologically appealing
Nate
9:15
What is Moustakas' best case scenario for his contract next winter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
I mean, *best case* best case, he's an MVP this season and he signs for a fortune. But he should probably think about something similar to the Jay Bruce terms
TF Fredrik
9:17
Is identifying talent or developing talent more important. If you had to pick one, obviously you would love to do both well.
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
I'm going to say developing talent. Across teams, I don't think there's all that much difference in talent identification anymore
9:18
You can tell when someone has power, or a strong right arm. Even if you're 10% worse at spotting talented young baseball players, you can weaponize the farm system if you're 20% better at making decent players good
Dingers!
9:19
If Kershaw was exactly the pitcher he is now except every time he threw to a base he had to use Lester's  bounce pass, how much worse would he be?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Kershaw has averaged about 30 assists per 200 innings. How many of those are close enough that a bounce pass would allow the runner to reach? Half?
So you're turning 15 outs into 15 baserunners. To say nothing of Kershaw becoming a far inferior pick-off threat. Total estimated cost: roughly two wins
manse gray
9:21
mlb should not rely on television feeds for instant replay.  at a cost shared by owners and players (who have a great interest in true representations of any given game event) all parks should be outfitted with cameras and sensors appropriately located for precise mapping of each park to capture all game events.  additionally, the data gathered would produce truer representations than data extrapolated using video recorded from static television camera locations.  is the cost worth it?  with all the lip service paid to 'integrity,'  i say 'yes.'
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
I imagine we're going to see a gradual improvement across the league in instant-replay technology
Bork
9:22
Sooo is there going to be a spike in free agents accepting QO's next year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
Every case is different, and teams might learn from this market and extend fewer qualifying offers in the first place. But I do think the QO will become more appealing, just because you can't get it twice
Jack
9:24
Are you at the point where you’re starting to believe there will be some big name free agents who don’t have a team by Opening Day? Do you think any of Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn are regretting not taking the qualifying offer the way Moustakas definitely is?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
It's a different situation, I think, for pitchers. Nearly every team could end up with an opening in the rotation. Look at the Rays, who have already lost two would-be starters to Tommy John surgery. It was going to be much harder for Moustakas to find a new 3B opening
9:26
I think the pitchers will still find multi-year contracts, and I think they're coming soon, as we're approaching the point where signing players won't be able to get up to speed in time for opening day
Gets tougher with, say, Jonathan Lucroy. But he didn't have a good season
Raindog
9:27
Pretty ballsy by KC: yes we offered you 17.6M before, but now we're gonna cut our offer to you by 63%.
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Business is cold
Cold and unfeeling
Spring's Sprung?
9:27
Hey Jeff! Any pitchers stand out to you so far in spring as potential breakout guys? Last year we saw Morton and Jordan Montgomery. Anyone like that this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Maybe now Wade Miley isn't terrible
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