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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/9/18
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Francis
10:44
Expectations for Severino? Truly become an ace or some rough patches?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
Hard not to like him a whole lot
Tommy La Stella
10:44
What's the verdict on bounce houses - as dangerous as trampolines?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
Less dangerous
Jacket
10:44
Are you in on the Greg Bird hype train
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
I think he is good
Stevil
10:45
4-man rotations complemented by 8 or 9-man bullpens. Bad idea, or the evolution of baseball given the lack of starters that can get through a lineup unscathed 3 times?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Why stop there? What does "starter" even mean these days? In 15 or 20 years there might be like 50 actual good starters, and a whole bunch of swingmen everywhere
Andrew
10:46
What do you think is the most likely outcome to Ichiro's second chapter with the Mariners?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
Two or three wonderful memories, and an 85 wRC+
Chris
10:47
What do you think the Astros starting outfield is at the end of this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
Tucker/Springer/Reddick
Nate
10:47
Thoughts on Kershaw and Turner's comments about Ohtani? Legitimate gripes or sour grapes?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
Little of both. I can't quibble with their impressions, since they were there and I was not
Peter
10:48
Noting the speed/defense decline of case like Moustakas, wouldn't it serve players better to have a DH in both leagues, at least offering up 15 more teams able to be flexible in signing hitters? Ever think the union would push hard for that?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
I don't know when the union might push hard -- lots of pitchers still like to hit -- but the universal DH is inevitable
Dan
10:49
I know you don’t work in a front office setting - but I’m wondering if there’s a place for me in modern front offices and if it’s a career worth pursuing. I’m just not a mathematician or adept to create new statistical models or innovate on technologies. I have some skills down (SQL, R), and have an advanced competency for analysis/research/baseball metrics. But I’m wondering to make it in this as a career - do I stand a chance to work in any capacity of a front office (video doesn’t count), when I’m not ultra advanced at computer science or advanced statistics.
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
Yes, there could be opportunities. Obviously, it helps your own case to be more technologically proficient, but to say this in the least arrogant way possible -- I've been approached several times and my computer skills are shit. Like, you wouldn't believe. It's embarrassing. I've only even known about VLOOKUP for like four years
10:51
If you can demonstrate your eye for talent or analysis, and if you can demonstrate how you'd be of utility to a major-league organization, a team would be interested in you. They already have enough coders
Billy Beane
10:51
Jonathon Lucroy to the A's is so horrifyingly obvious that I cannot comprehend wy it hasn't already happened unless Lucroy just doesn't want to play in Oakland (which is, I suppose, possible)
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
It's probably the strongest explanation
Hal
10:52
The split between teams gunning for the playoffs and teams developing guys for the future has never felt bigger. Do you think that's a good thing? How could MLB incentivize more teams to try to win?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
I don't think this is necessarily accurate. Just about every team out there wants to win, and is trying to be competitive in 2018. They just haven't felt like the best way to advance the goal is to throw money at free agents
10:54
And even if, like, the White Sox signed Mike Moustakas for three years, then what? Does that mean they're suddenly "trying to win," because they went from 66 projected wins to 68?
Dave Kingman
10:54
If/When the remaining FA starters sign, how long would it take them to get up to speed? Assuming they wouldn't be ready for opening day.
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
They could still be ready for opening day, at this point
They're all staying stretched out. Would probably take about three weeks or so
Guest
10:54
Mike Moustakas is guaranteed 130 million less than Eric Hosmer. Just FYI.
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
Eric Hosmer is more athletic, and athleticism is important for future projection
Amber
10:55
Any teams in recent memory projected for as many wins (before the season starts) as Fangraphs has the Astros at? 101. That's usually a conservative figure, no?
Jeff Sullivan
mmddyyyy
10:55
How long will you chat today?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
A few more minutes!
Gavin
10:56
How much should we glean from Exit Velocity? Guys like Mookie Betts and Alex Bregman are lower on the scale--but is that reason for concern?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
I think average EV only tells part of the story. You also want to look for EV consistency. And also launch-angle consistency. If you can hit a bunch of balls 100 miles per hour, it doesn't matter if you never touch 115
10:57
Joey Votto doesn't generate outstanding average EVs. He's Joey Votto!
Jim Tracy
10:57
My rotation ideas were ahead of their time.
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
Current ideas are like your ideas, except with good pitchers instead
Dominik
10:58
Craig wrote that article about the rays 4 men rotation. Isn't that actually a logical step to reduce the off days of the starters if the IP per game go down? Relievers also get less off days than starters after all. We won't see the guys throwing 300 innings in a 4 men again, but if you only go 4-5 a 4 men rotation could offer enough rest especially if you do a 4-3 inning tandem, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
Yes
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