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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/14/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:07
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friend
Daniel
9:08
How can I learn to be as handsome as you?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Silence those that find you not handsome
Pretty Tony
9:09
On the Tigers broadcast the other day they said Verlander has gone 20+ starts without giving up more than 3 runs. And the only other pitcher in the majors to also have that streak going? Daniel Norris?! I had to go check because it seemed so unbelievable!
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
This seems like a good time to run a quick check using the Baseball-Reference streak finder!
9:10
In the past decade, the longest such streak belongs to Jake Arrieta, at 29 starts
Clayton Kershaw's in second, at 24
9:11
I don't know where they got those numbers. Verlander allowed five runs last August 16, and Norris allowed four runs September 18
I suppose they're talking about *earned* runs!
There we go. There's the magic
9:12
Indeed, story checks out
JTT
9:13
Jeff, why does it seem like we never see good players post flukey BABIP based years? If Danny Santana or Chris Johnson can BABIP .400 for an entire season, in theory it should be just as likely to have Miguel cabrera or Votto or Mike Trout to get lucky and BABIP like .450. If a bad hitter like Chris Johnson can luck his way into a .321 BA one year, why can’t an actual good hitter luck his way into a .400 BA
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
David Wright had a .394 BABIP in 2009. Josh Hamilton was at .390 in 2010. Jorge Posada somehow finished a year at .389. It happens
9:15
I think you run into two issues, though. One, there's only so much space for batted balls to find, so getting additional hits becomes harder and harder. And two, when elite hitters make their best contact, oftentimes that contact results in a homer, which BABIP ignores
Joel
9:16
Let’s say SEA finishes 77-85 or something similarly underwhelming. Is it time for Dipoto to put the U.S.S. Mariner in dry dock, and re-build her? If so, what would that look like?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
Well, there's the problem: It's not an easy rebuild. The Mariners don't have, like, a Manny Machado they could conceivably sell
9:18
There are some parallels between the Mariners' situation and the Tigers' situation. You're not getting out from under Felix's deal. You're not getting out from under Cano's deal. To say nothing of how the expensive players would likely have to perform for the Mariners to finish sub-.500
9:19
You can try to flip individual pieces like the Tigers did with Price and Cespedes, but I don't think the Mariners *have* a Price or Cespedes
seth
9:19
will the Reds win 100 or 110 games this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
They won 16 games in spring training, so they have a very, very slim shot at 100!
Bork
9:21
So uh..how bout them Jays?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
That was already going to be a tough division top to bottom. They're already 3.5 games back of the team in fourth place.
Nothing at this point counts as devastating, and even losing Josh Donaldson for a couple weeks does something short of devastate, but if this doesn't turn around in a hurry, they're screwed
9:23
"It's early" works when you're 1-3. It doesn't work when you're 1-20. Somewhere in between, there's a red line
Zonk
9:23
Statistically, the best pitching staff in the NL is the Reds. Wait, what? Explain this, Jeff!
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
By WAR, it's the Rockies!
Baseball!
DN
9:25
Loved the Mets game last night. Hate the proposal to change extra innings. What are your thoughts on it?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
I don't like it, and I also don't think it's going to happen. I don't see compelling reason to believe it would even result in shorter games. Just higher-scoring games
9:26
Right now, teams enter extra innings tied. Under the proposal, teams would still enter extra innings tied. Maybe increasing run probability slightly decreases the likelihood of a tie sustaining, but I doubt the effect would be dramatic
botchatheny
9:26
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
It is very great
Maybe less so for Tommy Pham
Another Bad Dynasty Manager
9:27
I know it's just April, but when should the Jays start panicking?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
The Jays should never panic. To panic is to be unproductive. The fans, however, would be free to initiate a panic sequence. And the front office should start having some tough conversations
As soon as the Leafs are eliminated, there won't be any escaping this
Steve
9:29
Pretending the Blue Jays can't get it together and Donaldson becomes available, what kind of return do you imagine he gets?
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