Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/15/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:29
no
Guest
9:29
Jeff I saw a documentary about the Yellowstone volcano eruption that will destroy us all someday. What can you say to reassure me?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
You will die from something else
j6takish
9:31
What do the white sox do if they don't contend this year? They only have Sale/Abreru for 3 more seasons and no farm or promising young players on the uprising
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
It kind of depends on *how* the White Sox don't contend, if that's what happens, but three more years is a long time. And there's Quintana, and Rodon, and so on. They're not in a horrible place
Brett Lawrie's Empty Redbull Can
9:32
Hey Jeff, first time/long time. I just wanted to say Josh Donaldson is great. Do you think he's great? I'll hang up and listen.
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
He's not Jeremy Hazelbaker great, but he's pretty solid
2-D
9:33
How is it possible for a RH slider to have a negative value for horizontal movement? Brooks has Carrasco's sliders from Wednesday at -1.62.
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
I think people get the wrong idea about how sliders move horizontally. Frisbee sliders are uncommon and thrown almost exclusively by side-armers. Curves are the pitches that really sweep across. Sliders are essentially cut fastballs, or fastballs with dip and minimal tail
Marcus Semien's Dad
9:34
Andrelton Simmons is an inferior defender. My son is awesome!
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
At this moment, right now, they're tied in DRS!
Johnny5Alive
9:35
so basically start every pitcher against the padres? also, i own VV in an NL only, can we change the schedule so he get to pitch against san diego like 20 more times?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
The Padres are bad. This is not insightful fantasy advice, but it is fantasy advice
Raindog
9:37
Braves get 3 games against Miami now, but then get LAD, NYM, BOS, CHC, NYM for the 16 games after that. Their W-L record come early May... my goodness.
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Make sure to buy your 2017 season tickets!
Zonk
9:37
Last year, Maddon batted the pitcher 8th. This year, he's back to batting the pitcher 9th, but several other managers are batting the pitcher 8th now. Where do you sit on this issue?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
I'm going to be totally honest with you: I don't have an opinion. Not a single one. It's kind of embarrassing because I know this is supposed to be one of those sabermetric hot topics, but I can't bring myself to ever care about lineup construction, unless there's just something egregious. I don't find it very interesting
Ryan
9:39
I know that its a very small sample size, but so far the Cubs offense looks like its going to be great. How do they stack up against some of the better offensive teams of the last decade?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
They're very good, but I'm not sure they're even better than this year's Dodgers. If Russell is legit, that changes things. I'm not yet convinced
Sean P
9:41
Do you think Zobrist returns to his defensive value from a couple years back now that he is healthy? Wondering how much of an impact his injury last year had on his defensive.
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
Health isn't quite as binary as we want it to be. Zobrist right now is probably feeling better than he did at any point in 2015, and that's helpful. Look at Angel Pagan for an example of a guy who seems like a different player now that he has his knees. But I'm not convinced that knee problems just go away. Not permanently. Zobrist is probably susceptible to soreness or further injury, so I don't think we can expect him to last the year close to 100%
In short: I think Zobrist will be better than last year! But not way way better, in the end
Josh
9:45
Wily Peralta has been horrendous in his three starts this year after a bad 2015. Is there any hope at this point that he can even be replacement-level?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
The only consolation is probably that Peralta still throws 94 and sometimes pitchers just randomly click. For the time being he is dreadful
Otakon
9:45
Since the horrible start of the Twins, how do you think they will handle Berrios this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
I doubt the plans have changed. If the Twins stay bad, that should make it easier to keep Berrios controlled with caution
kris
9:46
Nice use of the word 'pseudoevolutionary' on EW!
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Recording early in the morning, I was just happy to not stumble over every other word
Q-Ball
9:47
Cubs pitching is #1 in least walks surrendered (19). Cubs are #1 in most walks taken (53). Cubs are not among the leaders in ANY other pitching or hitting category not related to walks. This is the only reason they are winning....they are winning the strike zone.
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Strike zone's important
Zonk
9:47
I know you are not supposed to call a team toast in April, but given the low margin of error, do you think the Twins are toast? And are the D-Backs that far behind?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
Let's say you set a target at...85 wins. A low 85-win target! The Twins are already 0-9, so they'd need to play out at 85-68. That's a .556 pace. 90-win pace over a full season. It's doable, but it seems well above the Twins' collective head
9:50
The D-Backs are also in big trouble, but a lot of that is just from losing Pollock. Without him, I don't buy them as a contender, bad start aside
The Dude of NY
9:51
Assuming Jason Hammel has around a 2 WAR 2016 (which all the projection systems project) do the Cubs pick up his 2017, 10mil option with 2mil buyout?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
If he's healthy, I think he'd be worth $10 million to them
9:52
(It's a $12-million option, with a $2-million buyout)
blake
9:52
At what point, if you're a fan of a team that starts off like the braves or twins have, do you lean into the skid and start rooting for the losing streak, hoping for historical awfulness rather than just an ordinary lost season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
I was just talking to a baseball person about this yesterday. Here's the problem with rooting for losing: things have to happen in a certain way for losses to follow. Losses are caused by lousy performance. And if your team is performing lousy, that means critical pieces are performing lousy. If the difference between a bad Twins team and a horrible Twins team is that the horrible Twins team gets nothing at all out of Sano, Park, Buxton, etc, is that really something you want? Wouldn't you rather those players look like they could help for a while?
9:54
I mean, maybe you could say the "ideal" is losing despite good performances from core players. But that's not very possible
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