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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/21/17
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Naveen
10:32
I went to the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and wished you could have had the experience the whole time I was there!
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
It's on the list. I was never real interested in going to Hawaii until I realized I wouldn't *have* to go to the beach
Luck Dragons
10:33
Why use Gio Gonzalez over Joe Ross?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
Stronger belief in Gio Gonzalez being able to pitch consistently
10:34
Ross needs to prove his own health and mechanical repeatability
Relsh
10:34
Is Headley Deadly again?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Probably not
DN
10:34
80 xFIP- isn't dominant? Last year only 5 qualified pitchers had an xFIP- 80 or better.
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
I don't think that 80 xFIP- reflects their true talent
(referring to Harvey/Wheeler/Gsellman)
10:35
All they've faced are the Braves, Marlins, and Phillies
Robin
10:35
Recent articles (including the residency piece on FG) have mentioned how players are bigger, stronger, etc. That said, what is your average player? Would a 0 WAR today be >0 25 years ago? Would Spezio be actually decent with pitchers throwing slower? Does it make comparing WAR between time periods a bit deceiving?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
It depends what you're trying to do. A bad player today is way better than a bad player 40 years ago. But you can't really hold that against the bad player from 40 years ago -- he didn't have access to contemporary...everything. When we compare across eras, we're just trying to put numbers within league-specific contexts. Just because Mike Trout is better than Babe Ruth doesn't mean Ruth wasn't similarly exceptional, relative to his peers at the time
Put me in coach
10:37
In last night's Mets game, Conforto and Granderson both started in the OF and Conforto started in CF. Is that an acknowledgment by the Mets that Conforto is the better CF?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
Going to guess Granderson the veteran gets to just stay in one spot since that's less hectic, and it's Conforto who has to bounce around. Players don't really like to bounce around if they don't have to, and the difference between Granderson and Conforto in center isn't big. Neither one of them should play it
The Jolly Roger
10:39
Thoughts on Amir Garrett? The SwStr % on his curveball and change are pretty impressive. I know the fastball velo isn't crazy, but if his secondary stuff is this good, can he continue to put up good numbers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
Last year in the minors, Garrett threw 62% strikes. So far in three starts in the majors, he's thrown 68% strikes. I haven't looked at him closely enough to know whether this reflects improvement, but he's pounded the zone and gotten whiffs within it, which is promising. Command and secondary stuff can definitely carry a big-league starter
It's nice to see the Reds have a young starter have something good happen
Luck Dragons
10:41
Is Lance McCullers legit?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
He's been good for a while
ted the friend of all children
10:41
Headley got 1 war in 12 games. Are we looking at an all star?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
No
Too many good third basemen, and the Yankees have more visible representatives
Steve Zissou
10:42
Hey Jeff, Big Sens fan here. Thoughts on the renaissance of Bobby Ryan in the playoffs? Most of Ottawa had been ready to kill him a month ago.
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
I find listening to Guy Boucher to be very reassuring
I am a deliberately stupid hockey fan, and so I love the bounceback story being told. Playoffs!
Nats Fan
10:42
How much stock should I put in the hot starts by Harper and Zimmerman?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
More in Harper, I guess, but I think Zimmerman is a genuinely good hitter for as long as he's healthy. That, of course, is the issue
Dahl Makhani
10:43
Archaeologists peddle the Atlantis thing as a way to drum up public interest, when there's really little evidence it wasn't just a place Plato made up to make a point
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Nevertheless, it's interesting to evaluate the damage wrought by the massive eruption
Steve
10:44
Any reasons to believe Duvall will bat higher than .240 this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
Last year he batted .241
Joey Hacks
10:45
There's nothing that looks good on Bautista's 2017 lines. However, looking back at 2016 and his career, I thought he could bounce back based off of his Hard% data last year versus being higher than his career average. Statcast though showed his Brls/BBE being down in 2016 versus the previous year. I weighted the Hard% over the later due to more data. Was I wrong to do so, and how can we accept why these two similar metrics are suggesting radically different things?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
It's possible to make hard contact without making nearly perfect contact, which is what barrels essentially measure
It's also worth noting that Hard% baselines have shifted over the years, so it's best to consider Hard% against average
humble
10:46
When Smyly gets back, does Miranda kick Gallardo out of the rotation?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
Can't take that for granted. Can't actually take any part of that for granted
kdallas
10:46
When do you expect to see Meadows? Right around July/whenever Super 2 is?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
I doubt they'll promote him just to sit behind three guys when Marte returns. Also, right now Meadows is slugging .286
10:47
The Pirates said that Meadows isn't ready. Often, when teams say that about top prospects, they're using it as a cover because of what are truly service-time concerns. In this case, I think the Pirates were being honest
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