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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/22/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:35
Sorry about that hiccup, got stuck doing preemptive research before submitting this question
9:36
First thing to recognize: Price has what would be a career-best K-BB%. The peripherals look good, and Price was strong against the Indians and Blue Jays
9:37
But the stuff *is* down a little bit. Price hasn't done a good job yet of burying cutters. And he might be adjusting to a more first-base-side release point. Price isn't going glove-side very much these days, which makes the plate easier to cover
9:38
I suspect that Price is going to be okay but for the moment the velocity drop is notable
j6takish
9:39
Is yasmany tomas good now? Is Major league baseball colluding to troll Dave as hard as possible?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Tomas still can't do anything *but* hit, and it's worth noting two of his three dingers came against Robbie Erlin, who's a Triple-A pitcher. So, you know, you don't want to go crazy, but it was said from the beginning that Tomas had power. He might finally be starting to show it
Bork
9:42
How many no hitters will the Reds be victim to this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
My guess is it won't happen again but my gut says that wasn't the last
Curtis
9:43
First significant player trade of the season will involve _____________ to ___________?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
an outfielder to Anaheim?
Gary
9:44
Thoughts on Joe Mauer? Are we seeing his 2013 form reincarnate?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I love what I've seen. I'm aboard the Mauer train
Erik
9:45
Does someone like Arrieta, who became dominant at age 28, have any chance of making the Hall of Fame? He's undoubtedly pitching at that level today, but how long would he have to continue to get his overall resume up to that level?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Randy Johnson wasn't dominant until his later 20s. He got in on the first ballot, with 97% support. So there's precedent right there, and obviously Arrieta doesn't need to have Johnson's career to get in. You could shave off a few seasons and still have a compelling case
But, I mean, that's still unlikely. Arrieta has to keep this up a few more seasons, and then have a graceful decline period. There's no question he's got a shot, but the fact that he was nothing until 2014 works very much against him
B
9:48
So the projections have the Rangers as the worst team in the AL through the rest of the season, despite getting Darvish back in less than a month. You disagree?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
I don't love the Rangers, but the Twins are worse. Kela's surgery hurts my case that the Rangers have an underrated bullpen. Still, I think they're about a .500 team
Brad
9:50
Colome keep his job when Box returns?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Doubt it
OnSight
9:52
Brewers team wide change of chasing and swinging less sustainable? Or will players go back to their old ways?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
It's not an accident. Now, I don't care for much of the lineup, long-term, but the Santana stuff is really exciting. As the season wears on it can be tough to sustain these gains, because you grow mentally exhausted, but this is an encouraging start
BakedBean
9:53
I don't want to get too heavy, but for the first time in my baseball fandom, I'm having an ethical dilemma cheering for Thor. He is so good, but I feel like I'm cheering for a blown-out elbow. Is it ethical for his coaches and organization to let him throw that way? I don't want to sound like I'm coddling him either, it just seems like thats what he should be saving for October, not going full steam in April.
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
There's no compelling reason to believe Syndergaard is about to blow out his arm. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't, but careful teams get burned just like aggressive teams get burned. Syndergaard's heat is easy. He might just be a freak, like Randy Johnson. The whole point of this is the spectacle, and we want to see players at their best, not at a fraction of their best because it might allow them to perform below their ability level for longer
9:57
You might as well say you can have an ethical dilemma cheering for any pitcher. Shit's dangerous
Ryan
9:57
The Jays have taken some chances on vets on minor league contracts, none of them have worked. Will Bourne be any different?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Probably not
Bork
9:58
Which trade was a bigger hindsight is 20/20 loss, Arietta to the Cubs or Thor to the Mets?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Syndergaard was still way down there in the minors, and Dickey looked to be a good get. I can understand that move, mostly. And it's not like the Arrieta move didn't make enough sense at the time, but Arrieta was frustrated in Baltimore's system. That was and probably still is a problem
Yordano
10:00
Is my decline in velo a concern?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Nah. Pretty typical for this point in time
Suck Bhowalter
10:00
All else being equal (starting pitchers, team matchup, playoff implications etc.) which would you find more entertaining as a viewer: a no-hitter / perfect game which ends 16-0, or one which ends 1-0?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
1-0, by far. More decisions, more stress, greater leverage at all points
Curtis
10:03
Which player's slow start worries you the most? Why?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
There are a few. Just to pick off the top of my head, I don't like what I've seen from Tulowitzki. Doug Fister clearly isn't back. Adam Wainwright should not be getting hit like this. And I'm a little troubled by Felix's command
Tulio
10:05
So, how about him Bryce Harper? How crazy would it be if he actually threatened Bonds' HR record? On a scale from 1 to Munenori Kawasaki, how awesome would that be?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
I think what's insane to me is that Harper is slugging .849 and if he wants to challenge Bonds' record he can barely afford to slow down
Harper isn't going to do that, in part because the intentional walks are going to start happening
Mike
10:07
Jeff, I saw an image of an island in Japan that had a huge crack in it. The logical conclusion is that the Earth is getting bigger right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
Getting bigger by the addition of nothingness. One for the philosophers
Erik
10:08
Odubel Herrera was a popular candidate for regression before the season, given his high BABIP and short track record. But this year, he seems to have a new approach, including a third-best in the majors walk rate. Is that change for real, and if so, how good does that make him? Good enough to lead off for a playoff team?
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