Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/22/16
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Beltway
10:53
Who would you rather have on your favorite team: Trout or Harper?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Since they're basically equally as good these days, I'll take Harper, because there's generally more emotion involved in observing him
Max
10:55
You might not follow sports betting, but I'm curious what you think of what's been happening with games at Coors. The over/unders are higher than ever this year, with today's game with two pretty good pitchers having an over/under of 11.5. Any idea why sports bettors are pounding the over in these games, despite the over/under's been astronomically high?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
I don't know anything about what's been going on with sports betting, but I know that for however much Coors generated attention for the humidor, it's back to being a crazy hitter's environment. And the Rockies can hit now. And they don't really pitch. Maybe this makes some sense?
Jon
10:56
Cubs odds at the 2001 Mariners win record? 10%?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
Let's say they're a true-talent...60% team?
10:58
The Mariners went 116-46, so let's put a target at 117-45. The Cubs would need to play out at 105-41
That would give them a 0.2% chance
Lower than I expected
10:59
Goes up to about 5% if you think the Cubs are a true-talent 65% team
11:00
In short: don't think about the record yet
The Mariners Moose
11:00
Chance that my Mariners luck into a wild card spot this year?
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
Might actually have a better chance at the division if the Astros don't figure their pitching out
Brett
11:01
With bullpens getting better and better, is there less value than there used to be in seeing more pitches and getting the starter out of the game earlier?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
Absolutely yes
chelben
11:02
how do you feel the Wainwrightization of Porcello is going in 2016?
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
Haven't seen enough curves yet for the comp to be stronger, but you can't ignore 24 strikeouts against three walks. And the funny thing is that there's been a Porcelloization of Wainwright! An early-2015 Porcelloization
Baked Bean
11:04
At what point do the Red Sox have to go out and get SP reinforcements?
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
Rodriguez will be a reinforcement
Deece
11:04
what is happening to Votto early on? just poor luck? all his hitting peripherals look ok apart from the low walk rate (for him)
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
I gotta think he's fine. Maybe he just doesn't feel like he's in a groove yet, but he'll find his liners
Dug
11:05
Dbacks offence looks good and if the pitching improves do they have a shot at winning the division ?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
They have a small shot, but a shot. The absence of Pollock is a big deal, I think, but if they really are going to get hits out of Segura and Tomas, that erases some of it
Matt
11:07
Which Diamondback do you most believe in thus far between Segura, Lamb and Tomas?
Jeff Sullivan
11:07
Tomas, offensively speaking
Forgot about Dres
11:08
Are the Padres the worst franchise? Not much to be hopeful for in the minors, pitching staff is a mess and their 4-5-6 hitters are Melvin Upton, Alexei Ramirez and Christian Bethancourt.
Jeff Sullivan
11:09
If I were choosing to follow a team right now, the Padres would probably be at the bottom of the list. I mean, I'd never really want to follow the Loria Marlins, but it's unfair that they have Fernandez, Yelich, and Stanton, so that's too compelling. The Padres are a total mess
Steve
11:10
Why do you think stolen base attempts have declined over the past few years?
Jeff Sullivan
11:10
Maybe less emphasis on teaching it?
Mike_C
11:10
The Braves offense is almost historically bad right now. Other than a handful of position prospects the strength of their farm is their pitching. Is 2018 a realistic contention date?
Jeff Sullivan
11:10
I can buy 2018. I'm having all kinds of trouble buying 2017
Roe Bott
11:11
Any concerns with Cole Hamels?
Jeff Sullivan
11:12
I'd like to see him get into the zone more. He's traded some fastballs for cutters. I wonder how well he works with Bryan Holaday
squirrels
11:13
Does Veasquez have the highest ceiling of pitchers on the Phillies? Nola seems like a great 2 pitcher, but outside of cliff lee control, he probably isnt a 1
Jeff Sullivan
11:13
Based on how we think we can evaluate ceilings, yeah, it's Velasquez by a ton
PadsfanUK
11:15
Please give me something to be excited about as a Padres fan. Anything!
Jeff Sullivan
11:15
You were born into the privilege of not having to worry about where your next meal will come from
That's a pretty sweet perk
Bill
11:16
Let's assume that Trout does not suffer a serious injury and plays a normal workload until retiring at a normal age. In this scenario what are the chances he misses the HOF?
Jeff Sullivan
11:16
Like 5% or something. There would need to be a scandal because he's already like more than halfway there
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