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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/6/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:07
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friend
Daniel Vogelbach
9:08
By how much do I have to outperform Healy to become the starter or at least platoon full time?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Not sure you'll even get the chance, at first. The Mariners appear committed to giving Healy a long leash, and they won't replace him until it's clear that he's bad or that Vogelbach is amazing
Vogelbach will probably have a return trip to Tacoma coming up
Bork
9:09
Is Gabe Kapler being paid by the Yankees to make Aaron Boone look good?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Gabe Kapler made the unforgivable mistake of being different
9:10
Never be different in Philadelphia
Taxes
9:10
Should I do them?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Someone should
Doesn't have to be you
9:11
Unless you don't feel like it
Who am I to tell you how to live your life
Monsignor Martinez
9:12
With a career K/9 of under 4 and an opposing BABIP of .280, how did Cy Young pitch so successfully?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
Over his career the league-average strikeout rate was even lower than his
And his walk rate was far better than average, too
9:14
Wasn't so bad to allow a lot of contact when no one had the ability to hit the ball out of the yard. Cy Young allowed 138 homers in 22 seasons
Whitty
9:14
Thought on Nick Williams calling out Kapler for his lineup creation? Are players already turning on him? Or is this an isolated incident from an immature player?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
To a certain extent this isn't even Kapler's fault. The front office forced his hand by moving Hoskins to the outfield and by signing Kingery
The roster construction demands that players get regular breaks, so that there's room for everybody. The players who have to sit aren't going to be thrilled about it. But I'm not sure what Kapler is supposed to do. No way for Williams to get 150 starts
Wiggle
9:16
Thoughts on where Johnny Cueto ends up?  Walks are closer to career levels but other peripherals don't look so hot.
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
Stuff looks fine, contact rate looks more or less normal. Cueto should be solid provided no more blisters
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:18
Much has been written about Chris Archer's peripherals vs his results. Who is another pitcher you consider to be about as good as Archer?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
I think a big part of this probably comes down to the competition that Archer has faced. Since 2012, when he debuted, his divisional opponents rank 4th, 6th, 8th, and 11th in wRC+
9:21
The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Yankees rank 1st, 2nd, and 6th in HR/FB%
So of course Archer's home runs are somewhat inflated -- he's faced an unusual number of powerful lineups
9:22
Anyway, to answer your question, Gerrit Cole?
3 Ben Sheets to the Wind
9:22
Confidence in Corbin to pitch relatively like this all year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
Well he won't maintain *this* kind of strikeout rate but I don't know how it could hurt him to use his best pitch more. I think he'll be legitimately improved
Armchair Manager
9:23
Hi Jeff, If I’m reading run expectancy tables correctly, it’s basically always a bad idea to sacrifice a runner over to second base. Is this true, and if so, why do managers keep doing it? I don't know much but the numbers seem kind of clear.
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
There's a reason sac bunts are disappearing, especially among non-pitchers. It's not an optimal play
9:24
Now, sometimes you have particular bad matchups. If there's a really good righty on the mound and you have a weak right-handed hitter, it makes more sense to bunt if someone better is on deck
And the run-expectancy tables, viewed simplistically, don't tell you that on a non-negligible number of sac bunts, there can be defensive errors that allow everyone to reach
THE Average Sports Fan
9:24
What is your take on Kapler?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
From the beginning, it was understood that some people would love him and some people would hate him. Anyone who's that polarizing will get buried at any and every opportunity
9:26
The challenge is and has always been maintaining the confidence in the clubhouse. Kapler doesn't have to give a shit what anyone is writing. None of it matters. He just needs to make sure he has buy-in from the Phillies themselves. He's going to make some unusual decisions. How many of them work out, we won't know for months. I'm glad he's getting this opportunity
9:27
There's a real chance Kapler could be a failure. Just might not be cut out to be a leader. We don't know that yet, and we can't learn anything, really, from a shift that doesn't work
TKDC
9:28
Should pitcher hitting count towards Cy Young voting? How about Ohtani’s hitting?
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