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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/6/18
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Jeff Sullivan
Joey Votto
10:47
What's wrong with me?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
Last player in baseball I'd ever worry about
That being said, I watched him strike out against Tyler Chatwood the other day on three pitches. Three absolutely perfect inner-edge fastballs. Nothing Votto could've done
Kraznys mo Nakloz
10:48
Ryan Flaherty is the best 3B in baseball.  Change my mind.
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
I'd rather allow you to live in that world. Why close the door on possibility
Guest
10:49
I've read before in Fangraphs chats that relievers receive a leverage adjustment in WAR. Do you have an idea of how this actually works, or how significant the adjustments are? Is this accounted for in projections?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
Here's a short and very old article that is modestly enlightening https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/war-and-relievers/
DC
10:50
Are the Mets real?
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
Are any of us?
Mike W.
10:51
Are the Rangers the worst team in the AL West?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
I believe so, by a fairly narrow margin
10:52
I think it's about 40% likely to be the Rangers, 30% to be the A's, 25% to be the Mariners, and 5% to be the Angels
Kyler
10:53
How early does fly ball% or GB/FB ratio become meaningful? At what point does it become sign of a real change?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
I'd give it at least, say, 100 batted balls before making anything of it
Anthony
10:54
It's really nice to see Tim Anderson off to a great start after an awful year last year on and off the field. Have you noticed any changes to his approach so far?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
Well, he's already 23% of the way to matching last year's walk total
But he's still swinging at more than half of the pitches he's seeing
10:55
He's drawn his walks against Daniel Norris, Warwick Saupold, and Burch Smith
10:56
That's, uh
Let's just move on
Rick
10:57
What is the worst case scenario at the end of April (playing the Dodgers 10 times, Nats 3, Angels 3, Dbacks 6) where the Giants can still make the playoffs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
This is all useless estimation but the Giants will be 29 games in. They wouldn't want to be worse than, I don't know, 12-17
10:58
The second wild card in the NL shouldn't be too hard to reach, but there's also plenty of competition for those 84 wins or however many
Miguel
10:58
Can Kenley Jansen be excellent at a reduced velocity? Seems like one of the key reasons he's been so good with one pitch is because of the command. But I've also been a fan of his slider and have thought he should use it more.
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
That all depends on the cause for the velocity loss. If he's hurt or his mechanics are out of whack, that's real bad news. But if, hypothetically, he were just aging gracefully and gradually, then a tick or two wouldn't matter too much, because he'd still have his precision
Right now he doesn't have his precision. It's also been only two innings
JV
11:00
Is Matt Chapman the next coming of Scott Rolen?  I'm convinced of it
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
Rolen didn't have so much swing-and-miss to his game, but I do support the general profile here
Chapman could be very, very good. Very fast!
Scott
11:00
Do you think the Angels have told Ohtani not to steal bases, in hopes of avoiding injury? It seems like he has enough speed to make that a part of his game.
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
Yeah, hard to see the Angels wanting to be very aggressive with his baserunning
11:01
And besides, this early on, you want Ohtani focusing on his pitching and hitting, not on trying to read the moves and times of different opposing pitchers
Ohtani only stole 13 bases over his career in Japan. He just doesn't do it
Lunar verLander
11:02
Has mankind exhausted every possible kind of pitch, or is it conceivable that there is an undiscovered new pitch type?
Jeff Sullivan
Not a whole lot left to do, I'm afraid
OddBall Herrera
11:03
Does the fact that the MLB statcast page only starts displaying average exit velocity once a player gets over 25 recorded events mean that number becomes meaningful around 25, or is it just an arbitrary cutoff? (p.s. Andrus atop the leaderboard!!!...of 8 players)
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
Arbitrary
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