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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/8/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:48
we're all friends here
Hipster Mecca
9:50
If you're facing Taijuan Walker, do you just sit on the fastball and wait for it to inevitably creep into the center of the zone? The man definitely needs another pitch, no?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
Yeah, I'd go out hunting a fastball in the upper half. I'd basically eliminate the curve and split-change until there were two strikes
Walker started messing around with a slider in spring training to replace his cutter, and that could turn into a pitch to watch, but I wouldn't yet be afraid of it. Too inexperienced
Sean
9:51
SSS, but one of the current leaders (three) in DRS? Chris Owings in CF. And by the eyeball test, he's actually looked pretty good out there. Who knew!?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Decent shortstops can play anywhere, turns out
Hanley Ramirez can't, but Hanley Ramirez wasn't a decent shortstop
TF Fredrik
9:53
There are sooo many stats to look at and evaluations to read on players. I have been trying to think of a shorter general checklist to go thru for major leaguers to think about where they are at any given moment. For a basis to look at, what do you think of for hitters (in no particular order): Production (hitting, baserunning, defense), Projection, Health, & Pedigree. For pitchers: Stuff, Stats, Health, Projection, Pedigree?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
I think you look at results, then you look at projections, then you look at *recent* results to see if there might be any reason to think the projection could be off. Health is always a factor but it's hard to pin down given the amount of randomness. I worry less and less about pedigree as a player gains experience in the majors
9:55
The real problem with general checklists is that each player is an individual. Each player is also constantly trying to tweak his own game, and each player has his own strengths and weaknesses. It's why I do so many deep dives into individuals -- there's so much to study for every single guy.
Doc
9:55
Could the Jays finish with a top 5 rotation? Or is that too optimistic?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
They *could*, but, yes, too optimistic to think it's probable
Even if Sanchez turns out really good, he's not lasting the year in the rotation because of his innings
Cecil Fielder
9:55
when will player pages be updated with current season data?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
It's in there. It's just underneath the projections part
Guest
9:56
Given his contract, what would Greinkes trade value be?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Very low. Arizona outbid the competition
Matt
9:57
Are we all just living in Joey Rickard's world?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
From Joey Rickard's perspective, yes
Ronnie
9:57
New Stat Suggestion. wOBAdif, which would essentially be the difference in a hitter's wOBA against opposite versus same handed pitchers. Seems like it'd be easy to compute and would give a good quick/dirty proxy to measure consistency of production against different handed pitchers. Same could also be done for pitchers but for wOBA allowed instead.
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
We probably should make it easier to see a player's platoon splits. I mean, it's simple enough to click on the splits page, but it feels like a thing that would be trivial to include on the main player pages
Jaack
9:58
Which is more likely to exist in reality: the Cubs' curse or Tim Lincecum's showcase?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Lincecum's showcase! But not because I believe in it. More because I don't not believe in it
Erik
9:59
Dave Cameron suggested in the podcast today that MLB might "do something" about the rapid increase in pitcher velocity. How likely do think that will be, and what changes would be most likely?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Nothing's going to happen soon, or quickly. They'll need a ton of evidence showing that hitters are screwed. And since strikeouts just plateaued, with runs going up, right now Manfred doesn't need to act. But in a hypothetical world where pitchers have more and more of an advantage, you could see the league further lower the mound. A more radical move would be pushing the mound back a foot or three, but I can't see that happening
TKDC
10:02
Is the Pirates 3-game sweep the biggest of all the not that important starts to the season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
Yep, Pirates playoff odds increased from 28% to 36%. Cardinals, meanwhile, dropped from 45% to 35%
I'll probably do my annual post on this stuff early next Monday. The games matter! Already!
Cyril B-B
10:02
How long would the Padres have to remain scoreless before someone gets fired? A week? Longer?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
It's funny, Matthew Kory and I were just talking about this at a bar Wednesday night
10:04
A couple more games and you get a players-only meeting. Another week and you lose a hitting coach. Another week and a half or two weeks and you might lose a manager. Beyond that you lose the general manager
I'm not not rooting for it
Ed
10:04
Joey Rickard slash over a full season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Worse than you're hoping for. Let's all just bask in the current glory
el crapo
10:07
have we had a recorded 95mph slider before Syndergaard?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
What makes it tricky is that there's a blurry line between sliders and cutters. So while Syndergaard was throwing a slider, and it surprised him, a slider is thrown with almost identical cutter action, and then you can think about, well, Kenley Jansen?
10:10
So the answer is more gray than black and white. What's immediately obvious is that Syndergaard's repertoire is unfair and overwhelming. So maybe that's enough. 98 mile per hour run, 95 mile per hour cut? *And* a changeup and a curveball?
Guest
10:12
if there is a lazy fly ball hit to right center, and the RFer and CFer could both easily catch it, but someone calls it first... that routine catch helps the guy who caught it (in terms of UZR), correct? even if its one of those plays listed as 99%?
Jeff Sullivan
Seems like Lesson #6 applies here?
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