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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/12/17
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Sim
9:41
What are your thoughts on Rich Hill going forward? Return to last years form if healthy the rest of the way?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
At this point I don't think you can ever count on him to be healthy the rest of the way
9:42
It's good that he's not fighting a bad elbow or shoulder or anything but the blisters might just be a part of it now
Otters
9:43
How much more valuable is a player with peak Bonds hitting skills but otherwise a replacement level player as opposed to with peak Ozzie Smith (or similar) fielding skills but otherwise a replacement player?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
Peak Bonds was worth about 110 runs just on hitting alone. Peak Smith came in around 40 runs combining defense and positional value
Dougie
9:46
I read the other day that Logan Morrison has the 22nd highest WRC+ among hitters with 400 or more PA in the last calendar year. Has LoMo finally figured it out?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
His exit velocity this year is actually a little down. But his approach isn't horrible and he has at least average power. He's an okay player, but he's playing over his head
Shawn Baseball
9:48
Hi Jeff!

Vlad Guerrero Jr's bat was compared to Mike Trout's on twitter yesterday.

How hyped can i be without being too hyped.
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
Prospects and draft picks get flattering comparisons all the time. It's always hyperbolic, whether intentional or not
9:49
This feels too hyped, but then, who cares? What does it matter? He'll arrive on his own schedule
Jack
9:49
Is CarGo gonna be ok? This is a bummer
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
I honestly don't know why he wouldn't be
Everything seems basically normal. He'll go on a crazy hot streak, as he does
9:51
Last year, he had a 30-game stretch where his wRC+ was 43. The year before, he bottomed out at 34. This isn't unprecedented
Stuafoo
9:52
Surprised the Ms are hanging around .500 despite future all stars like Chase DeJong taking the bump?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
They can hit the crap out of the ball
Mariners are fourth in baseball right now in wRC+
mtsw
9:52
So are the balls juiced or not?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Sure seems like no
canofcorn66
9:53
Altherr or Broxton long-term?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Broxton is a premium CF
jake
9:53
With familia injured, wouldn't it make sense for the mets to just get a good middle reliever and convert to an indians style bullpen instead of overpaying for a "closer"
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
The Indians have a closer
Matt
9:53
Aaron. Alther.

Thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Liked him in March, like him now. He's going to keep playing; the Phillies are big fans
Terry Collins' Pen
9:55
Hypothetically, imagine Harper, Machado, and Otani are free agents at the end of the year and with no signing pool restrictions for Otani. Would you rather have Harper at $450M, Machado at $400M, or Otani at $325M? Assume length of deal is the same for all three.
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
I'll take Machado
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:56
I enjoyed your piece about the Orioles surpassing expectations again, but I couldn't help but notice that the Rays were second to last in Actual-BaseRuns wins 2012-2016 and dead last for this year. We've talked about what it means for the Orioles to continually "overperform", but what does it mean for the Rays to have been at the bottom of this metric for so long (and across both Maddon and Cash)?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
The Orioles were, of course, the most exceptional team, but there are always two sides to everything, and I think the Rays have struggled with a fair number of difficult bullpens. This year in particular, they're near the bottom in most meaningful metrics
The Rockies have also been down there in the past. Part bullpen, part just difficulty getting the right sequences. I don't think it's some kind of organizational disease
Barry Manilow
9:57
So the Dodgers are totally gaming the system for their rotation right? How long does this go on?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Everyone knew this was coming and they won't be the only team to do this
Guest
9:58
Senators....
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Senators!!
YKnotDisco?!
9:58
This seems like a very difficult accomplishment thru 119 PA: O-Contact% - 82.3% - Z-Contact% - 80.0% - Yadi Molina
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
I can't imagine why his wRC+ is bad
Stevil
9:59
Hello, friend! The Mariners have a lot of odd things happening which will lead to some odd decisions. In the coming months, it's hard to imagine them not shopping for pitching, but Catcher is looking like a real area of need as well. They'll have to weigh the possibility of an all-rookie outfield when Haniger returns as well, though that seems less concerning. What's your mid-May on what might happen?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
I don't think they're actually going to shop for much. I think they're comfortable in Ruiz playing a little more than expected, and the outfield has so many overachievers. Their season is going to come down to how the presently injured pitchers fare when they return
10:00
Felix and Paxton seem close. Cishek is close, for the bullpen. Smyly, who knows
Matt
10:00
Cotton has got to be down for minimum 10 days (unless injury in MLB). How much past that 10 days you think he stays down?
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