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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/18/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Jack
9:06
Is C.J. Cron for real?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
I've always liked Cron as an obvious source of power. There were hints of some development that got hidden in his "down" 2017; the Rays jumped on the chance to land some upside
9:08
That being said, he's neither a premium defender nor a premium pitch-taker, so he's limited in how valuable he can become. I think, at the time, it made enough sense to basically swap Dickerson for Cron, but not because Cron was on the verge of becoming a four-win player or anything
greg
9:09
What kind of trade value does Scooter Gennett have?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Low!
9:10
It's good to be a home-run hitter, and teams like to acquire home-run hitters, but he doesn't do a whole lot else. And I'm sure there are still teams out there who remain skeptical of the Gennett breakout
9:11
If the Reds sell him as a guy who can conceivably cover four or five positions, that's something, but Gennett isn't a good defender at any of them
9:12
Maybe the Brewers would like to have him back, but you're not looking at a premium prospect exchange
James
9:12
Justin Verlander
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
Fun fact, building off of that:
Last year the Indians set the all-time record with 31.7 pitching WAR
This year the Astros are on pace for 37.8
9:13
They're on pace to beat the record by 19%
lol
Q-Ball
9:13
Who do you think emerges out of the competitive NL Central?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
Still think Cubs
But I'm absolutely delighted it remains this tight
The Cardinals are interesting because they're good despite being let down by so many of their good players
9:15
The Brewers are interesting because they're good despite an underwhelming starting rotation
And the Pirates are interesting because what!
If the Pirates were to actually pull this off, I don't know how the front office couldn't spend the entire next offseason telling people "I told you so"
Ross
9:17
Have you been watching the hockey playoffs at all and do you have any rooting interest or did the Sens cause you tune out hockey in like December? I want a Caps-Knights Final, because I really want Ovechkin to win a Cup, and also because I’m interested to see how Golden Knights superfan Bryce Harper will handle it if they’re playing Washington’s hockey team in the Stanley Cup Final
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
Close friend of mine here is a huge Caps fan so I'm kind of pulling for them because I'm pulling for him. But I don't have a strong pull in any direction. Just happy to not see the Penguins, Bruins, or Leafs
9:19
Honestly though one of the things about hockey is that it's such an emotional sport that when you cheer for one team, you find reasons to hate literally everyone else!
aw
9:19
I'm wondering if your position on Aaron Sanchez as a starter pre-2016 breakout was right. That 5.19 BB/9 isn't inspiring confidence he'll get back to his 2016 level of success...
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Sanchez is weird -- he appears to have a quality changeup, and his contact rate is by far the lowest it's ever been. Yet he has a K-BB% of 5%
9:21
And this is pretty easily traceable
Sanchez vs. righties is no worse
9:22
Sanchez vs. lefties: .441 OBP, .478 SLG
20 walks, 14 strikeouts
9:23
It's not because of the changeup. The changeup has actually gotten strikes! But almost literally half of Sanchez's fastballs to lefties have been balls
9:24
He hasn't been down in the zone like he used to be, and for a guy with such a premium sinker, that's not great
Q-Ball
9:26
Toast, or NOT Toast:  Chris Davis, Jason Kipnis, Ian Desmond
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Fun fact about Chris Davis: he currently has the same average exit velocity as Juan Lagares!
9:27
I think Davis is done being good, I think Kipnis will be salvageable, and I think Desmond is a catastrophe
9:28
So far, in return for the Rockies' $70-million investment, Ian Desmond has provided them with -2.0 WAR
9:29
I know he's forever attempting mechanical tweaks, and I know the turnaround might be just around the corner, but there's not one single positive indicator anywhere in his profile
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