Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/19/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:07
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friend
Snowflake
9:08
Are Eric Sogard and Carson Cistulli the same person?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Eric Sogard went to Arizona State
Can you imagine Carson at Arizona State?
JTT
9:08
Where is that blistering hot Jason Vargas content the entire blogosphere has been waiting for?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
It's never going to happen
It's never going to happen because he's the same freaking Jason Vargas as always
9:09
#TheResistance
Bork
9:09
Anthony Alford has been called up by the Jays. Are you on the Alford hype train?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
I am not
fake newss
9:10
Thoughts on Berrios after last night's game? More optimistic now?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
I don't think I was ever particularly un-optimistic. I never saw a convincing explanation for why what happened in 2016 happened, and the high-minors numbers have always been so promising
Berrios last year went from 67% strikes in Triple-A to 58% strikes in the majors. That just wasn't going to hold up. In two starts in the majors this year, he's thrown plenty of strikes, and it turns out a strike-throwing Jose Berrios can be super good
Jrk
9:13
What's been the issue with machado's hitting this season
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
One answer is just bad luck -- horrible BABIP despite what would be easily a career-best hard-hit rate
9:15
But I suspect there could also be an issue of feeling caught in between -- Machado hasn't very consistently blended good bat-on-ball productivity with patience. He's been swinging less, and it's good to see more walks, but maybe he just needs to be more aggressive to fire on all cylinders
I'm still more encouraged than discouraged
Stuafoo
9:17
Cano's contract is admittedly terrible, but entertain the following experiment if you will. Let's assume the Ms are sellers, and that Cano is both healthy and productive. How much money mould the Ms have to eat to both entice someone to take him and get a young mid-tier prospect in return? 75%?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
Sorry about that delay, got a phone call
Okay, we have a 34-year-old second baseman
9:19
From the start of this year forward, Cano's due $168m over seven years
9:20
Based on our contract-tool estimates, Cano is projected to be "worth" something like $128m over the same seven years
As always, you could quibble with that. Teams don't have a great appetite for big commitments to players so old
9:21
But I don't think you'd be looking at a 75% situation, unless you were talking about a high-quality young prospect. Mid-tier, maybe more like 40-50%
Joe and Paul
9:21
Where do you rank Knebel among NL closers for the rest of the season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
I don't know, middle? Clearly has swing-and-miss stuff but he doesn't throw enough strikes for my liking, and that's a bullpen that's going to have plenty of role-switches
JTT
9:22
Over/Under on Dustin Ackley appearing in 100 games over the remainder of his career?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
Checking in, right now he has a .671 OPS in Salt Lake
9:23
He turned 29 in February
aaaaaaaaaand he's spent nearly every game as a DH
I'll take the under, I'm afraid
Big Joey
9:23
How encouraged by Berrios' start are you? Think he can outperform Dallas Keuchel the rest of the way?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
Keuchel has pitched like an ace before. He's doing it again. Believe in Keuchel.
This feels like a fantasy question
Dudeman
9:24
How impressive is an immaculate inning?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
Both very impressive, and less impressive than ever
With strikeouts up and contact down, we'll see more of these, but they're still remarkably uncommon
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