Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/19/17
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Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:25
Where do you see Corey Dickerson's slash line at the end of the year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
In the vicinity of his Colorado lines. I don't think he's changed much; he's a talented pure hitter
I've liked him a lot more than his 2016 numbers. Pretty swing
toki
9:27
Wild idea for the all-star game. Use Dead-ball era rules and allow pitchers to modify the crap out of the ball like they use to. And, play till the ball comes apart. Just for this one game a year. Think it would be interesting?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
It would be interesting in a no-one's-going-to-watch-but-we're-all-glad-it-happened kind of way
AD
9:29
Any idea if Hunter Renfroe's newfound ability to take walks is legit or if it's just SSS noise?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
My assumption is that this is mostly a fluke, but at the same time, I can't find much in the way of minor-league precedent for him
9:31
So by no means should you just dismiss what he's done. It takes a lot to convince me that an aggressive hitter isn't too aggressive anymore, but this is exactly what you'd like to see from someone with Renfroe's many talents
PTBNL
9:32
Jeff - it's been reported that both the Nats and Red Sox are sending scouts to kick the tires on White Sox players....again. When can we expect trade talks to heat up in earnest, and which players and teams will you be keeping an eye on?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
The White Sox are starting to drop in the standings and everyone knows they're rebuilding. So I'd say that, even right now, the White Sox are ready to go
But as a rule of thumb, no one really gets too invested in the trade stuff until post-draft
9:34
So you're looking at another handful of weeks before you could realistically see something semi-major happen. And even there, another team would have to force Chicago's hand, because it would work in their best interests to drum up more demand as the deadline gets closer
I wouldn't be surprised to see Robertson on the move around the end of June, though
9:35
The White Sox might anticipate there could be a bunch of relievers hitting the market in July and Robertson is so obviously available
Wild thing
9:36
What's your take on Matt Harvey? Do you think he can get his walks down?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
Feels like something has to be mechanically off and I wonder if his muscle memory got out of sync when he was forced to make that spontaneous start against Atlanta
9:37
That's just speculation on my part but Matt Harvey is *not* this bad
Jim Lahey
9:37
Am I the only one who doesn't get the hype for Quintana? Yes the contract and durability is nice, but he doesn't get swings and misses, he's basically a 2 pitch pitcher (and his curve isn't even that good, its all FB/FB command), and his peripherals have been trending downwards for 2 years now. Isn't it obvious the market has spoken about their view on him too with no one biting on CWS's presumably massive price tag?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
No one believes that Quintana is an ace, but everyone believes that Quintana is a major value. Everyone's correct!
9:39
At the end of the day, this is a guy who was worth 18 WAR over the past four seasons. He's been able to consistently prevent home runs in a hitter-friendly environment. He's the real deal
Daniel
9:39
What's the best way to go about hiking a Colorado 14er for the first time?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
Make absolutely sure you're as acclimated as is reasonable for the circumstances
Don't just fly to Colorado and immediately try to hike. Give yourself time, at the very least, to get used to Denver
9:40
If possible, acclimate even higher than that. And then just go slow with *plenty* of fluids. If you feel light-handed, do not push yourself. It's not worth it
guy
9:40
Is there a place to look up what percentage of the time a pitcher throws a first pitch strike or anything along those lines?
toki
9:41
Since Kemp seems to be playing himself into a possible trade chip. Who would be the most likely suitors? Al teams in need of a dh, NL teams in need of a part-time corner OF/1b/DH?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Probably an AL/DH situation. Every team in baseball realizes Kemp is not an outfielder. He just happens to be playing the outfield. He also isn't this good and front offices can see his .410 BABIP
Zack Morris
9:42
Any insight on what's going on with Mike Trout's defense? His UZR/150 is -18.7, by far the worst of his career. Even with SSS I wouldn't expect him to be Nelson Cruz bad. Call me greedy, but I want the best to be even more better
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
Most of that is his arm. Similar story with DRS. His range remains perfectly fine, but Trout's never been blessed with a cannon. He improved there for a little stretch so I don't know if this is arm-related decline or just bad luck
With arm ratings in particular, I think the underlying numbers tend to be super noisy
9:44
So far Trout has just one assist, and he's at a career-low rate of "holding" baserunners. But the sample is so small I don't think it means anything yet
Shawn
9:45
What are the main issues with Daniel Norris and how are they fixed?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
One thing I just realized: Norris' average time between pitches last year was about 21 seconds. This year, about 26 seconds. What!
He has to knock that off. That sucks
9:47
That's not the issue, though. Without going too deep, it seems like a problem of inconsistent breaking balls. Hitters aren't willing to chase out of the zone right now, which lets them sit on in-zone fastballs. Norris' zone rate does not match up with his walks, so I think he's better than his numbers, but there appears to be an underlying breaking-ball problem
AC
9:48
Is J.D. Martinez's .938 ISO sustainable?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
What if-
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