Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/19/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Big problem with measuring wind effect is that wind measurements are taken only once, before the game starts. (As far as I know.) And then, the general wind strength/pattern doesn't always tell you about the micro-environments within a ballpark itself
Brett W
10:08
In your estimation, what are the odds that at some time in MLB history two teammates have been romantically involved with one another?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Probably 100%
Jump man
10:09
Any expectation of when Carter Capps will be called up
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
Last I heard, he's still in extended spring training, because his mechanics are off
God knows what they're working on, but the last time Capps pitched in the minors, he couldn't throw nearly enough strikes. It could be a while
Beasy Bee
10:10
Dave said something about forcing you to write about Jason Vargas. Are you allowed to tell him no?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Yes
We joked about it last weekend. I usually take any topics I'm given, but, Jason Vargas? Heavens no
JV
10:10
When do you think Edwin Diaz regains the closer job?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
2-3 weeks
baby bull
10:10
With new 10 day DL, how long till teams expand rosters to 26 or 27 guys? If you increase 25 man roster do you also have to increase 40 man roster?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
With the 10-day DL, you could argue teams have already effectively expanded their rosters to 26 or 27 guys
Zonk
10:12
Javy Baez has just about the worst plate discipline numbers in baseball. At this point, is this just who he is? Can he survive and thrive with his hacktastic ways?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Javier Baez is never going to be a disciplined hitter, not in the way that we think about disciplined hitters. You can't restrain his aggression and expect him to thrive
10:13
As such, his upside is, what, a better defensive Jonathan Schoop?
Perfectly fine player, but he'll have extremely frustrating stretches of ugly outs
Brad
10:13
No one can fill his shoes, but who steps up for Freeman in his absence? Is there a Braves prospect who is on the cusp?\
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
No
2-D
10:13
Should different levels of saves be awarded based on leverage index? Holland's last two saves for getting 1 out with a four run lead hardly deserve a full save.
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
I don't think there's any appetite for adjusting the save statistic. It's not worth trying to fix
cardsjason
10:15
So the 31% cost of living increase led us to turn down the job offer in Portland. Sucks but man that's crazy. Baseball: Are the Astros the best team in baseball? I mean, I know their record indicates that they are, but ARE THEY?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
I'm inclined to think it's the Dodgers, but the way Keuchel has come back has really solidified what could've been a suspect rotation. The Astros are unquestionably elite
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:16
The projections are understandably still chilly on the Brewers, having the suspect pitching they do, but let's say they keep up the (full season) pace they're on for the forseeable future. How long do they need to keep it up before "playing above their talent level" becomes "bonafide contender"? How much of that would come from bringing up some MiLB pitching reinforcements to replace some of the underperformers on their pitching staff like the recent banishment of Wily Peralta to the bullpen?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
It would take months to convince me that the Brewers are really and truly a lot better than their projections. That's based on...historical analysis of overperformance vs. projections
10:17
But the Brewers are now projected to end up 78-84, or thereabouts. That includes what they've already done. Play like this for another month or so and they're in the wild-card conversation almost by default
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
10:18
Whats your favorite hike you've done in the Western half of the country?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
Probably either exploring the Mt Margaret backcountry just north of Mt St Helens, or getting to Glacier Lake in the Eagle Cap Wilderness
DTH
10:18
Berrios was looking pretty pretty prettaaaaaay good. what level is he going to settle into this year? and do the Twins sneaky good young core have a shot at the playoffs this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
The pitching staff is just too bad, even with Berrios. But now we're seeing why the Twins could have a real direction. So much comes down to Buxton/Berrios/Sano because the upside is massive
Julio Teheran
10:22
Whats up with me this season? Am I worth buying low?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
Teheran has just completely collapsed against left-handed hitters
Against righties, he's been basically normal
10:23
Lefties, though, have smacked him for a .400 wOBA, and they have six more walks than strikeouts
Having a worse curveball is a problem, and his changeup has barely gotten any whiffs at all
10:24
As usual, it's probably more mechanics than anything else, but this is a big concern right now
RJ
10:25
alford getting the call; hes been great in AA... can he make an impact at the big league level?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
I wouldn't expect him to be up more than a few days
He needs more time, and he'll get it
JTT
10:25
What is your early guess for "Trade that makes a ton of sense for both teams and needs to happen but won't?"
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