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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/25/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Sorry about that delay -- very much podcasting this morning and afternoon for some reason
Put me in coach
9:06
Worse contract at this point - Heyward or Pujols
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Pujols. Heyward, despite everything, still isn't an overall negative
9:07
It is too bad though -- earlier this season, it seemed like Heyward was showing some real signs of life. They've all but disappeared, although in fairness he has experienced a concussion
Jack
9:08
So who should pick up Hanley Ramirez for league minimum after he’s released? The Rays could use another right-handed 1B/DH type who isn’t Rob Refsnyder to spell Miller against lefties. Do you think Ramirez has anything left?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
I don't know what the point of Ramirez would be for anyone anymore
9:10
He doesn't field, he doesn't run, and he's no longer much of a hitter. I know that he can still generate some impressive peak exit velocities, but in terms of value, this isn't a desirable or unusual skillset
9:11
Refsnyder probably isn't worse than Ramirez these days, especially given that he can somewhat play the field
Sean
9:12
What kind of impact do you see from Alex Reyes this year? Also will he have an innings limit?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
I remember reading that the Cardinals had something around 100 innings in mind. That was a few months ago but I doubt much has changed
9:14
The Cardinals, per usual, have assembled an impressive amount of depth. And that's going to be useful over the coming months as they try to balance innings among their young starters, from Reyes to Weaver to Flaherty
9:15
Reyes should find his way close to that innings target. And he's a big reason why the Cardinals are a very legitimate contender in the division
Put on your tinfoil hats
9:16
MLB released a statement that the balls aren't juiced, but something is up with the aerodynamic properties. Some have suggested that every team should have a humidor. The official report mentioned that they have "...not yet succeeded in definitively explaining the cause of the decreased drag coefficient...". Is this just a ploy by Big Humidor to boost sales?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
Follow the money. It all goes back to Halliburton
9:17
Realistically it's kind of surprising there isn't already a league-wide humidor policy
I know in a certain sense baseball thrives on everyone having a unique playing environment, but there's no reason not to ensure greater baseball consistency ball to ball and park to park
Parts + Gleyber
9:17
Does this spell the end of Hanley's 30-30 comeback tour? Where does he end up?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
I'm sure he'll end up with some kind of job but his regular playing days are over
9:18
Baseball doesn't give that many extra chances to declining veterans these days
Why pick up Hanley Ramirez if you could try to deal for Jabari Blash or something?
I really like Jabari Blash
The Tone
9:19
Jeff! Just an announcement: based on the completely cherry-picked threshold of 100 min. PAs, Brandon Nimmo is third in MLB in wRC+. Also Ohtani is seventh, which is whacko.
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
Brandon Nimmo is good!
Not .393 BABIP good, but he's a good player. And if you look closely, you can see a lot more fly balls all of a sudden
Granted, that's come with an unsettling increase in his pop-ups, but that could settle down
HappyFunBall
9:20
Good morning Jeff! Do you suppose that the Mets will have enough patience to wait out the waiver process before picking up Hanley? Or will their washed up slugger fetish compel them to eat the contract as well?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Thank goodness for them that Wilmer Flores has a three-digit wRC+
James
9:21
How much have analytics affected baserunning tactics? I feel like teams should still be more aggressive, especially with 2 outs.
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Let's try to take a look!
I'll compare 2018 to, I don't know...1998?
1998 feels pre-analytics
9:22
In 1998, the average runner moved up an extra base 42% of the time
In 2018, the average runner has moved up an extra base...42% of the time
9:23
Stolen base success rate has gone up four percentage points
I don't have an easy way of breaking this down by outs
I think that analytics has had a definite effect on steals, but I don't know about the rest of baserunning. Feels like that's still steeped in old-school mentality, because we haven't come up with much of anything better
Stuart
9:24
Should Padres fan have any hope for Margot offensively? Slump or is this just who he is offensively?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Well, he's definitely not *this* -- his true talent isn't a 47 wRC+
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