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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/25/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Yep
Jeremy
10:20
What's your favorite show to watch right now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
Not head-over-heels in love with anything, but happily going through Crashing and Atlanta
Teoscar the Grouch
10:23
Altuve and Hoskins were supposed to be the cornerstone of my fantasy team. They have 8 HR's combined and Hoskins has almost 20 more K's than hits. What's up with them?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
Altuve is one of the last players I'd worry about. He's probably going to go on a homer flurry at some point
10:24
As for Hoskins, he's sitting on a 124 wRC+. All things considered, that's terrific
It's true that May hasn't been pretty, but Hoskins was also kind of overdue for his first real big-league adjustment. He wasn't up long enough last season to get figured out
10:25
This month, Hoskins has seen far more changeups and far fewer fastballs
10:27
Worth noting that, in April, Hoskins saw first-pitch strikes less than half the time(!). In May, that's normalized
10:28
Contact quality is still there, and the contact rate hasn't plummeted to some horrible depth. I think Hoskins gets out of this, but something like this was coming
Hendrik
10:29
Is there even one legitimate reason for the Red Sox to not even try Swihart at Catcher? He can't be any worse than what Vazquez and Leon are doing and I doubt his bat will be worth much at 1B, not to mention that it's a huge waste of his athleticism.
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
Probably comes down to the fact that Swihart himself hasn't hit well in a very long time
And it's not like, compared to Vazquez or Leon, he offers any meaningful defensive advantage
10:31
Hard situation to disrupt on the fly when you're playing for first place in your division
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
10:31
How would you recommend using xWOBA to predict future outcomes?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
Carefully
It's just one component to me, and I'd rather look at launch angles, exit velocities, and discipline rates
10:33
I like xwOBA as it's constructed because it's an easy way to say "hey this guy has been good/bad" but xwOBA is probably going to mirror BABIP and we know that BABIP bounces around all the time
If a guy hits a bunch of weak bloopers, then xwOBA will consider that good! Even though nothing about a blooper is sustainable
Harristotle
10:34
Lots of questions have been asked about the Astros pitchers spin rate absurd increases. Have there been answers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
Verlander has always had a high-spin fastball
Mostly this is about Cole
10:36
Cole had some games last year where his four-seamer was exceeding 2200 RPM. Now it's just exceeding 2300 RPM
It's also getting a little more rise and a little more cut
10:37
Wouldn't be surprised if Cole were just releasing the ball slightly differently
10:38
I am not a conspiracy theorist
Palardelphia
10:38
On May 13th, the Phillies played the Mets. Bottom of the 5th inning, Aaron Nola delivered an 85.4 MPH changeup, which Jorge Alfaro received and then threw out a runner with a 91.3 MPH fastball. That difference has to be some sort of record.
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
Probably not! Because Alfaro has probably made another strong throw after an Aaron Nola curveball
Jake
10:40
What should the Cardinals do with Dexter Fowler?  Signed to be CF and leadoff, now bottom of the order platoon RF.   Does he get the Mike Leake sendoff?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
In Triple-A, this very season, Tyler O'Neill had three walks and 28 strikeouts
10:41
Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler is sitting on a BABIP of literally .164
10:42
Fowler's launch angle isn't meaningfully different and I don't think he completely forgot how to hit overnight
10:43
He hasn't had a below-average batting line since 2010
10:44
Last year, through to this point, Curtis Granderson had a 47 wRC+, and a .191 BABIP
The rest of the way, his wRC+ was 132
10:45
Fowler deserves some patience
Mac Gwire
10:46
Who is this year's Jason Vargas: overperforming veteran you have no desire to write about?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
Let me check!
10:47
Oh right, Nick Markakis
It's Nick Markakis
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