Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/26/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
9:03
Miss you, Bork
Sylvio Dante
9:03
should i be selling the farm for Berrios?
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
It's not allowed to possess another human person, but from a more distant perspective, there's not much here not to like
9:05
I'll be interested to see how Berrios fares against big-league lefties as he gets settled, since that breaking ball is so good but seemingly so much better suited to cripple righties
But he's basically trying to follow the Jose Fernandez mold. Lots of repertoire similarities there. There are worse profiles
Johnny5Alive
9:05
Can we fire Terry Collins yet?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Do what you want, but he's not your problem
9:06
When you don't have your best position player, starter, or reliever, I don't know how much you can expect to accomplish
To say nothing of whatever Harvey has become
Stuafoo
9:06
What are you thoughts on JeDi's body of work with the Ms?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Generally more positive than negative; this year has already been crippled by injuries
9:07
It's one thing to plan on players getting hurt. Always happens, every season. It typically doesn't happen all at once
JTT
9:07
Jeff Sullivan, does Carson still call you and Dave by your full names when talking to you in person?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
You are under the mistaken impression that we see each other in person more than a couple times a year
9:08
But he will slip it in occasionally. It's weird
JTT
9:09
Teams sign way fewer bad contracts than they used to but do we overestimate how good teams are at predicting how guys will age? Heyward, Bourne and Crawford have all been bad while guys like Nelson Cruz and Adam Dunn stayed (relatively) good. How much are teams just guessing?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Over the last four years of his career, Adam Dunn was worth a combined -0.2 WAR
9:10
I know what you're getting at, though, and I do think sometimes that our understanding of aging curves is too simplistic.
9:11
Over the long haul teams more or less get it right, but I don't know how you're supposed to be able to identify exceptions. No single player perfectly fits the normal curve
Proswagonist
9:12
Lance McCullers Jr. is 23 years old and has the lowest ERA in the AL since 2015 (min 250 IP). When does he enter the top 10 pitcher in baseball discussion?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
When he shows he can make 30 starts
9:13
Everything for McCullers right now is there. But it's perfectly understandable to worry about a guy who throws breaking balls as much as he throws his fastball
9:14
On some level Lance McCullers was born to pitch for the present-day Dodgers
Charlie
9:15
Where's Wednesday's Effectively Wild?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
All the week's episodes have been recorded but Ben is in charge of the actual details and he's out of the country on a trip. So it's not an ordinary week
Big Tuna
9:16
The Astros seem to be using Devenski more frequently and he's been giving up more runs. Are they at risk of over using him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
This is going to be the big question with any of these relievers around the game. Always a matter of knowing how hard they can be pushed. But, for example, Mike Montgomery has now actually surpassed Devenski in 2017 innings. Is Montgomery being overused? I'm not sure
For Devenski, some kind of statistical drop-off was inevitable, but this is something to watch as the season rolls on. He's still not pitching *poorly* but he hasn't been what he was in April
Hank
9:17
We need to have a talk about Keon Broxton. .430 BABIP, 38% K rate, on pace for 20HR 40SB, and around league average offensive production. Is there anyone with a more interesting profile in the league than him right now?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
At some point I owe the audience a Keon Broxton update. It's inevitable and it's coming. He's a fascinating dude, and what's crazy is that his overall numbers this year are acceptable even though so many indicators have veered off in ugly directions
9:19
His exit velocity is way down. His walks are way down. His O-Swing is worse and his Z-Swing is worse
And he's still on pace to be an above-average player. Okay!
9:20
It is worth noting that Broxton's BABIP is based on a pretty small sample of batted balls, since he strikes out so often
Big Tuna
9:20
Is David Price gonna make it through the season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
I am usually not optimistic about these situations
Chris
9:20
What are the chances Joey Votto gets in the hall of fame?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Pretty low, since he's in his mid-30s and his career WAR still isn't even 50. Not a big precedent for these guys making it. But I wouldn't be surprised if it were personal priority No. 1 or 2
9:22
By value and career path he's kind of similar to Chase Utley. I can see how Utley would make the sabermetric Hall of Fame, but I assume he'll fall short of the actual one
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