JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/26/17

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/26/17

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Nelson

9:22

Does the defensive component of WAR rely on opportunities? For example, would Trouts WAR be higher if the Angels only had extreme fly ball pitchers?

Jeff Sullivan

9:23

It's more based on the difference between converted opportunities and *expected* converted opportunities

Proswagonist

9:23

Astros top hitters with at least 60 PA by wRC+: 1. Marwin Gonzalez 172 2. Jake Marisnick 153 3. Jose Altuve 136

Jeff Sullivan

9:24

Raise your hand if you thought Jake Marisnick would out-hit Carlos Beltran

9:26

Both Gonzalez and Marisnick has super interesting player pages right now. Gonzalez has basically tripled his walk rate. And Marisnick is hitting for more power, while his contact rate has dropped by NINETEEN POINTS

9:27

Neither hitter is experiencing what I would call sustainable success, but they're still doing some pretty neat things

Ben

9:27

The playoff odds page currently lists Baltimore and Toronto with a virtual tie, approx. 22.5%, in playoff odds. Which team do you think has a better change to reach the postseason?

Jeff Sullivan

9:27

Blue Jays

9:28

Donaldson and Tulowitzki both seemingly back today

9:29

And the Jays have been pretty good ever since starting 2-11

It's Robert, not Robert

9:29

What a game 7

Jeff Sullivan

9:30

Couldn't have asked for much more. I guess one extra goal. But I feel a weird mixture of disappointment and pride

Fandom is so bizarre

Pretty Tony

9:31

Jeff will Justin Upton opt-out after this season?

Jeff Sullivan

9:31

I'd be pretty surprised if he did

He's guaranteed almost $90 million over the next four years. He'd have to really want out of Detroit

Mark

9:32

Thanks for the weekly chat. Do you see Duvall and Schebler both settling in at 3+ WAR players? Feels like the Reds did well in the trades for both (plus other players).

Jeff Sullivan

9:33

Because of his defense, it's easier for me to see Duvall as a three-win player. Schebler is more in the 2-3 range. But they're both perfectly useful and the Reds seem to have a better group of position players than they were given credit for

Connor

9:33

If the season were to end today, what would be the World Series matchup

Jeff Sullivan

9:34

Wouldn't be one. Season ended

Big Tuna

9:34

Is Sonny Gray back?

Jeff Sullivan

9:34

I wasn't going to need very much convincing. I don't think Gray is anyone's idea of a legitimate shutdown No. 1, but I think he's back to being pretty good again

Naveen

9:35

What can we learn from how the Nelson Cruz contract was so widely panned at the time of its signing? Is there something everyone missed?

Jeff Sullivan

9:35

One lesson is to never take the ordinary aging curve for granted. Some players will just age better than others

9:36

Another lesson is to keep in mind that a PED suspension doesn't necessarily mean a player's body is back to normal at the end

I don't mean to suggest I know anything about Cruz's case in particular, but you can't not think about it

9:37

In any case, the way Cruz's contract has worked out has been one of the few things keeping the Mariners somewhat afloat

A win for Jack Zduriencik!

Sylvio Dante

9:37

After the Votto article, he seems like one of these guys thats going to be offensively-elite until he's 40

Jeff Sullivan

9:37

Votto strikes me as the position-player version of Zack Greinke. There are no other players I would trust more to squeeze the absolute most out of their respective aging processes

Chris

9:38

Ever do any off trail hiking (bush whacking)?

Jeff Sullivan

9:38

Yes, although I'd say the bulk of my off-trail hiking occurs above timberline

tip tipson

9:39

Who is Souza really? Have we figured this out?

Jeff Sullivan

9:39

He's a strong dude with better defense than I expected him to have

A few years ago there were people who said even then that they liked Souza more than they liked Wil Myers. We're seeing some of why that belief existed

Vin

9:41

Thoughts on Marwin Gonzalez's power surge?

Jeff Sullivan

9:41

*Mostly* a mirage, but I do think he's improved his left-handed swing. He's a better hitter, but he's not a great hitter

9:42

Aaron Hicks: All Star? Or still too early to think that?

Jeff Sullivan

9:42

Still too early. Plus, how many outfielders actually make it each season? It's not like he'll get in through voting.

9:43