JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/26/17

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/26/17

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Jeff Sullivan

10:50

I don't think there's anything seriously wrong here. Schwarber was always going to strike out. Power hitters who whiff a bunch go through hot streaks and cold spells

Anthony

10:50

Is there an ideal Z-swing% or ZS%-OZS%? Higher seems better of course, but going too far would likely result in some weak balls - in - play because you're going after pitcher's strikes. Is there a real equilibrium point for everyone, or does this vary for player type?

Jeff Sullivan

10:51

It varies player to player. Like, Chris Iannetta has run a bunch of high Z - O-Swing rates, but he's generally just been an average hitter

Some guys are better when they target certain areas, like Joe Mauer or Matt Carpenter. Other guys could afford to be more aggressive

Jeb

10:51

Is the MLB Hall of Fame the hardest HOF to get into? I think it is.

Jeff Sullivan

10:51

It's the only one I even slightly pay attention to, but it does seem like it

10:52

Even if it's not, by the numbers, it's at least the most controversial. Other players in other sports seem to gain induction without people losing their minds

toki

10:52

What would the Cubs have to give up for Darvish?

Jeff Sullivan

10:52

There's no reasonable match right now as long as the Rangers are competitive

10:53

Charlie Blackmon = Mike Trout Lite?

Jeff Sullivan

10:53

How lite are we talking?

10:54

like how five dollars = twenty dollars lite?

Blackburn

10:54

If you were the Pirates, would you trade Mitch Keller and Tony Watson for Javy Beaz? I say hell no.

Jeff Sullivan

10:55

Tony Watson is a contract-year reliever with declining peripherals, and Mitch Keller is a non-elite prospect in High-A

10:56

I'll take the big-league asset with four and a half more years of control

Tim

10:56

What is every Cubs fan obsession with Schwarber and Baez? What am I missing?

Jeff Sullivan

10:56

The organization has hyped up Schwarber beyond any reasonable threshold, and Baez has flashed massive upside from the beginning

Kevin

10:57

Baez is similar to Josh Harrison in my opinion.

Jeff Sullivan

10:57

Baez has power and doesn't make contact. Harrison makes contact and doesn't have power

Ice Cubicle

10:58

Have you given your take on what's up with Tanaka? Either way....Mind sharing it again?

Jeff Sullivan

10:58

I haven't seen anything too terribly alarming. I think he'll be okay

Joe

10:58

Magma or lava, you gotta pick one, which do you pick, Sullivan?

Jeff Sullivan

10:58

Magma if I'm near it, lava if I'm a short-term visitor

Ryan

10:59

Should I give up on Addison Russell or will he get better as time goes on?

Jeff Sullivan

10:59

Addison Russell is a 23-year-old everyday shortstop who's been worth 7 WAR in the equivalent of two full seasons

What's in a name?

11:00

If, for some cosmic reason, you weren't allowed to go by "Jeff", and had to go by either "Jeffery", "Jefferson", "Sully", or "Funkmaster-J", which would you prefer?

Jeff Sullivan

11:00

Jefferson

It would make me sound a lot more dignified than I am as an at-home baseball blogger

A lawyer

11:00

Let's assume a player is a 40 on the 20-80 scale at all five tools, but has an 80 grade ability to draw catcher's interference. Say, Jacoby Ellsbury times 10. How often would this player need to be drawing a catcher's interference to be an above average player?

Jeff Sullivan

11:01

I'd say my guess is between 20 and 30

11:02

I don't know the run value of a catcher's interference, but it's probably similar to the run value of a HBP

11:04

And that's right around 0.6 runs, each

Give a guy 25 catcher's interference calls, and that's 15 runs, which is roughly a win and a half

Khrush Davis

11:05

As someone who saw some upside to this A's team, what record would they have to have at the end of June for you to trade Gray? Assuming he keeps pitching like this and could get back maybe 1 great prospect and 2 lesser ones

Jeff Sullivan

11:05

So, Gray has another 2.5 years of team control, basically

He could in theory be one of the only good starting pitchers available

Assume he'll be joined by Quintana, at least

11:06

The A's will be aggressive about moves like this but I think if they're even sniffing the WC hunt, they'll need to be strongly persuaded

Laroo

11:06

What can rodon become? Is he max scherzer good?

Jeff Sullivan

11:06