Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/5/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:49
124 since April 10
9:50
He's fine. The homers will come
Jim-Bob
9:50
If Joey Votto is "THE GUY" and Jose Abreu is "a guy" and Tommy Joseph is "just some guy" at 1B, where do you see Josh Bell settling in over the next few years?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
another guy
Beep Boop
9:50
You buying into Yonder Alonso's changes? He's always had some raw power, and he seems to have made changes that are allowing him to access it in games. Viable everyday 1B?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
He's showing all the hallmarks. Strikeouts up, ground balls down, power up. He's always had a decent idea of the strike zone so I can see this being a real change for the better. He's not *this* good but I can finally see him as being a relevant player
9:52
Yonder Alonso figured out how to be good, and we're still waiting on Eric Hosmer.
Blah
9:53
Bogaerts: 0hr. What's going on with him? Did he change his approach? Time to worry, or too early?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Bogaerts, 2015: 109 wRC+. Bogaerts, 2016: 113 wRC+. Bogaerts, 2017: 113 wRC+
9:54
He's back to spraying the ball and hitting the ball on the ground. He's making more contact than ever, while swinging less than ever at pitches out of the zone. At some point, he'll hit a homer, but this version is fine
ChiSox2020
9:56
Who's hot start are you buying: Derek Holland or Miguel Gonzalez?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Neither
Freddie Freeman
9:56
Is Sportvision still there running PITCHf/x behind the scenes at MLB stadiums or did they stop once MLB went full Statcast for the 2017 season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I don't know the actual answer to this, but I can guess -- I don't know why Sportvision would still be doing anything in the majors
9:58
I *think* they had year-to-year agreements they'd renew, and now that Statcast has gone full, there's no point
Daniel Castro
9:58
What should we expect from Amir Garrett going forward this season? The Brewers game seems like the outlier of a pretty solid start to his campaign.
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Seems like a league-average-y starter. Will probably tire in September, but that won't matter much
Hector
9:59
Hello - what is your opinion of Robbie Ray so far? Has he made any tweaks that make you think he can sustain a low to mid 3 ERA? The Ks seem to still be there.
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
The easiest possible answer: this year's ERA is simply in line with last year's (and this year's) peripherals. Which is what you'd normally expect
It's not like he's gotten meaningfully better about contact management. His hard-hit rate is 50%! The hits just aren't there so much
10:02
He is throwing a lot more of his curveball, and it's been a valuable pitch. So his contact rate has plummeted. He's also in the zone less, so he's got more strikeouts and more walks
He's a slightly different pitcher, but you probably don't need to overcomplicate -- he's got the ERA he should have
Tanner
10:02
Is Keon Broxton's last few ABs a validation that you've actually been a genius all along?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
Even if Keon Broxton is good, that doesn't make me smart. That just makes me someone who believes in Statcast data
This is important! Do not give me credit if Keon Broxton is a good player. I didn't "see" anything in him beyond his statistically-validated defense and statistically-validated contact.
10:04
He was already a good player last season
He was good before I called him good
Matty
10:04
So, Cesar Hernandez seems to be following up his 2016 with an even better 2017. Time for us to acknowledge that he's actually very good?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
I don't think he's very good. I think he's kind of good
Peter
10:05
Neftali Feliz has a long leash since the Brewers are just trying to flip him towards the deadline. He got the save last night, but overall he has been less than impressive early on. At what point to Brewers start putting their young guns like Barnes or Knebel into the high leverage situations to develop them more?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
The Brewers would probably tell you their pitchers can develop just fine in non-closing roles
10:06
Feliz indeed leads the team in average leverage, but Knebel is second, and Barnes isn't exactly making mop-up appearances
10:07
They love Barnes. He'll get his shot
Gest
10:07
Have you done any investigations on Fulmers reduced fastball spin rates?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
I have not
10:08
I'm inclined to believe there's nothing there
10:09
Fastball velocity is the same. Horizontal movement is the same. Vertical movement is the same. It's the same fastball
Blah
10:10
Marwin Gonzalez has gone scorched Earth as of late. His discipline and numbers all suggest a real change. What's your read?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Power, obviously, is way up. What's fun about this one is he's actually hitting *more* ground balls! The approach is the real change. Fewer swings, especially out of the zone. I'm not going to analyze heat maps on the fly in a live chat, but I suspect he's just targeting pitches a little better, allowing him to tap into more strength he always had
10:12
I lied, I looked
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