Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/6/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Hello friends
Bork
9:09
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Hello friend
Let's baseball chat
Bork
9:09
Can Trout trade the Angels?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Have to examine the particulars of his contract but you have to think that the answer is yes
eknpdx
9:10
Mount St. Helens: Earthquake Swarm Detected Below Washington Volcano, Report Says
The swarm is occurring several kilometers below the currently dormant volcano, Erik Klemetti of Wired reported. They are occurring as Mount St. Helens is "recharging" its magma stores.
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Business as usual for an active volcano. St. Helens has had several earthquake swarms in the past few decades that didn't immediately precede any activity. The mountain will erupt again, probably in the not-too-distant future (geologically speaking) but this specific series of events is nothing to worry about
Joe
9:11
Let's say the Os completely fell out of the race. What kind of hypothetical trade package would Machado command at the deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
Something kind of insane, of course. You'd be talking about 2.5 more years, at least, of an elite-level player, and you've also got the midseason trade premium. Two top prospects head the return package. Maybe a top prospect and a young big-leaguer
9:14
Question is, who would buy? Red Sox would fit if Shaw cools off, but that's a big deal to make in the division. Astros could try to jump in.
9:15
And, of course, the Orioles are 16-11, so this is just a thought experiment for now
Kari Faux
9:15
Since your article about pitchers adjusting to Trevor Story on 4/27, he's hit .314, 12.5 BB%, 30 K%, .343 ISO. What do you think a full season looks like for him, excluding this year's ridiculous start?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
I saw him homer off Cain yesterday, and he drilled an outside pitch out to left-center. It looked like Story was leaning to try to cover the outer third, and he clearly made sufficient contact. It's something
9:16
I knew about the fly balls but he's stronger than I thought. As a Rockies player, seems like something like .260/.330/.500
Fire Derek Shelton
9:17
Where's all the talk about Logan Forsythe, who has very quietly been one of the best second basemen in baseball since 2015?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
He undeservedly gets lost in the mix, but you can kind of get it. He's not a young player, his isn't a popular team, and at second base right now we're trying to figure out Altuve's power surge and Cano's comeback. Forsythe will get his moment, I'm sure
9:19
Fun fact: over the past calendar year, Forsythe has been worth 4.7 WAR. That about ties him with Jose Bautista and...
Odubel Herrera
9:19
How much longer can I keep this up?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
...this guy!
9:22
When I wrote about Herrera like a week and a half ago, I observed that pitchers just hadn't been throwing him first-pitch strikes. Since then, they've thrown him a lot more first-pitch strikes, but Herrera still has walked 17% of the time, with precious few whiffs, and plenty of hits
9:23
Increasingly, this looks like it's for real. Not to *this* extent because Herrera isn't among the league elite, but he's figured out an approach for himself and he does have quick hands and sneaky strength. Really good player here
The Phillies are on the way. Certain young players are maxing out, and that pushes a rebuild forward pretty fast
Ronnie
9:25
Chris Carter's plate discipline numbers are improved across the board and he is currently sitting on a 158 wRC+. Say he cools down to around a 140ish wRC+, what kind of trade value would that be at the deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
Still limited -- his track record speaks for itself and he's not an outstanding defender at first. The team control helps, though -- he'd fetch a second-tier prospect, if he's still producing
Nervous Tigers Fan
9:26
Who breaks out of their slump first? JD Martinez or Justin Upton. The tigers 1-5 was suppose to be up their with the Blue Jays. You think as the weather warms up, so does their bats?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Funny thing is as a team the Tigers have still out-hit the Blue Jays, 105 to 102 in wRC+
9:27
I think Martinez comes out of it first -- Upton keeps striking out and that suggests to me something a bit deeper
9:28
Martinez is actually hitting fly balls pretty hard. Just not quite hard enough yet
Billies B
9:28
Do the A's sign Lincecum now that the Angels genuinely need him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
California is opening up for him. Two injured pitchers on the Angels. Bassitt down on the A's. Cain and Peavy suck for the Giants. Lincecum will attract attention from everybody, but he won't have to go far if he doesn't want
I will say that, for whatever it's worth, this whole showcase feels overblown
9:30
I'm intrigued, just like you are, but all the coverage lately has felt like it's come straight from Tim Lincecum PR. They've done a good job of getting the media on their side, but nobody has actually seen this guy pitch well in years
2-D
9:30
Infinite Mike Trout trade scenarios ENGAGE
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
Already did Machado. That's close enough
Alex
9:32
What's the outlook for Lorenzo Cain ROS? Meets his initial projections or is he trending downward now
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
There's something uncomfortable here. Cain's contact rate is down literally 11 percentage points. He doesn't have enough power to survive at this level
9:34
He's going to pick it up -- he's too good. He's not a .230/.300/.300 hitter. But given what we've seen I do have to knock him down some, relative to when the season began. He doesn't look right
Saul
9:36
What's going on with Giles?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
If no one gets to it first I should probably write about this next week
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