Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/16/17
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Its Pronounced Robert not Robert
9:49
Matt Davidson is up to 14 homers for the year on only 183 plate appearances, does he have 2+ WAR upside or does the strikeouts and lack of walks limit him to just being a bat off the bench?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
I don't think he does enough outside of the homers. Maybe he's Mark Reynolds, but Reynolds has had exactly one season of 2+ WAR
Big Tuna
9:51
I had written off Wacha's earlier bad starts because they came against LA and CHC, but last night against MIL has me thinking the early success may have been fluky. What is your take on him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
I'm encouraged that his stuff has improved, but he seems like he's a mid-rotation starter more than he's anything else
curious
9:52
how long do LD rates/fly ball rates etc become stable for pitchers and hitters? Also how consistent are they year to year and how predictive of next years' numbers.
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
LD% is the noisiest of the bunch. GB% and FB% tend to find their stabilities pretty fast
You can usually tell if someone is a grounder guy or a fly-ball guy after a few weeks or a month
9:53
Skillsets do change, though. You can have new pitches or new approaches, and you'll always have the occasional Yonder Alonso
kim
9:54
What happens down in AAA that gets Zunino back on the right track? Not the first time he's gone down for a reset and come back a "different" hitter.
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
Well, for as good as his post-recall numbers have been, he's still struck out 40% of the time, and he's hit most of his home runs against the Twins. So I'm not sold that Zunino is actually fixed. But all that was was about making a tweak or two and getting some confidence back in a low-pressure environment. Basically a reset button
CamdenWarehouse
9:55
Are we allowed to think nice thoughts about Mike Zunino yet?  Since returning from the minors he's started 19 games and slashed .319/.368 /.652.
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
See above. He's hit like Matt Davidson!
5 walks and 30 strikeouts since returning. That's not an encouraging ratio
Zonk
9:55
Jayson Stark said recently that he always gravitates toward the funniest guy in the clubhouse.  I asked Eno this, what players do you find funny?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I cannot emphasize enough that I do all of my work alone in an upstairs bedroom in a city without a baseball team
Hunky Dory
9:57
If you're NYY, do you go for Alonso or Duda?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I'd try for Alonso but he might not be available. A's might want an extension there. So even though I made fun of this a week or two ago, Hosmer could be the guy if the Royals decide to sell. Which is not a given
Master P
9:57
Yovani Gallardo has been worth 0.2 more WAR than Motter - as a hitter. Do you still see Motter as a utility guy with a potentially long future? (Hope so!)
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Motter hasn't adjusted to the adjustments. He showed me enough to demonstrate that he has MLB skills, but he hasn't shown anything since
Ben Gamel
9:58
Are you ready to take the 4th OF label off me yet?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
The .463 BABIP would suggest that the answer is no
9:59
But there's the upside there to be a regular
curious
10:01
how much of a role is the shift playing in Odor struggles? Will his babip bounce back
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
The shift seems to have taken a chunk out of Odor's value, but that doesn't explain why his homers are down while his pop-up rate has tripled
10:02
Odor's BABIP will improve from here, but he's not built to be a high-BABIP hitter
Ethan Hunt
10:03
HanRam is batting .240-9-26 in the middle of a top three lineup in baseball -- is he done?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
I don't think so. All the indicators are basically fine. He has the exact same xwOBA as a season ago -- .355
10:04
He should be an above-average hitter
Dirt Dingerer
10:04
Jeff Sullivan writes about Andrelton Simmons being cool again, and he hits a cool dinger. Who are you writing about next, Jeff?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Actually, Simmons had already hit the cool dinger. After I put up my post, Simmons went 0-for-4
But I've been meaning to take a look at Chase Anderson at some point. Going to give him another start or two to see
JKD
10:05
What does this version of Mark Melancon - same K/9, lower BB/9; but also lower GB%, and already 2 HR allowed after 1-2-4-3 over the past four seasons; and also three and a half years of a big contract - cost in a trade?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
I have a really tough time seeing Melancon getting dealt so soon. Doesn't seem like the Giants' style. But if they *did* move him I bet they'd have to eat some salary to get worthwhile prospects back
curious
10:07
any take on the baseball proscpectus story from this week re:financial issues?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
Haven't read such a story but it would be worth pointing out that this is not exactly a lucrative business
Marcus Banks
10:08
Is Aaron Judge's batted ball profile strong enough to support a .300 batting average while striking out 200 times a year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
Stanton topped out at .290, even when strikeout rates were lower. Now, Judge doesn't seem to have Stanton's pop-ups, so that'll help. But I'd expect Judge closer to .280 than .300. For Judge to stay around .300 he'd have to remain *really* elite
Spreadsheet Scout
10:10
How much stock should we put in rather extreme minor league batted ball numbers for high-end prospects? For example, Victor Robles has carried very high pop up rates throughout his pro career. This year, it's gotten even worse: his IFFB is near 30%, hitting 21 pop ups compared to only 17 line drives. Is this a major red flag? Or is it just an elite talent with a raw approach, simply swinging for the fences too often as he dominates lower levels of competition?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
I wouldn't worry about something like that too much. Especially since Robles hasn't yet appeared in Double-A. God knows how reliable the High-A batted-ball stringer data is. It's something to note as Robles continues to develop, but it's not in red-flag territory
Dirt Dingerer
10:12
Andrelton Simmons is cool again!
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