Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/16/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:51
I'm virtually certain Theo wouldn't change anything that in any microscopic way contributed to how things went in 2016. Because the Cubs won the World Series, and that's the whole point
majordanby
10:51
how far ahead is baseball relative to other sports with respect to using analytics to evaluate players and make personnel moves? It seems like certain sports like tennis and boxing would benefit greatly from analytics given the structure of their competition.
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
I couldn't tell you the first thing about tennis or boxing analytics. Among the major sports, baseball has the best analysis, but they're all using numbers more often to make their decisions
Jaack
10:52
Better HoF chances - Posey or Mauer?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Probably Posey. He'll get a lot of extra credit for the championships
Nats Fan
10:53
Which big-name reliever do you think the Nats are most likely to add?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
I continue to assume Robertson. They just need the ownership permission to spend
Bryan
10:53
If Hosmer gets traded, what do you think it will cost?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Some kind of B-prospect. Non-elite position player in his contract season
Pete Rose
10:54
Never could understand the difference between DRS and UZR. For instance how are the Giants -37 in DRS yet have a positive UZR at 0.6? That's a pretty significant difference
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
One minor point: DRS does include catcher and pitcher defense, which UZR does not. So that's a partial factor
But overall they're just two different attempts at measuring the same thing. There can be large discrepancies and in those cases, it's best to assume something in the middle. Generally, the numbers do show good agreement
Bryan
10:55
What computer program do you use for your work? R? SAS?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
When it comes to baseball analysis I am a complete and utter idiot. I use Microsoft Excel, and I use it poorly
Hammer Longballo
10:56
6 of the last 7 WS winners didn't make the playoffs the next season. Is there anything to that (statistically or otherwise) other than 'baseball is hard'?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
Probably not
D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe
10:56
What's your favorite baseball movie?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
Twilight
In that Twilight portrays the most laughably entertaining version of baseball
10:57
Shut up
Billy Beane
10:57
How likely do you think it is that a team is reading the KATOH's top undrafted college players list and re-looking over their own scouting reports?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
I guarantee you more than half the baseball teams have had someone at least read over the list
Taylor
10:57
Contracts aside who would you rather have the next 5 years? Judge or Stanton?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
Judge
Brian F
10:58
I gots to know: do you see anything different in Jose Pirela's swing this year? I know to take the PCL numbers lightly, but it's hard not to look and see a player with a much different approach. Breakout at 27, or PCL foolery?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
I'll take a look at him later on if he continues to prove that he's worthwhile.
weezy
10:58
previously on effectively wild, it was mentioned that reaching on an error is a skill. There is also evidence to support that fewer and fewer errors are being handed out in baseball games. How far are we from removing the error entirely? It really serves no purpose at this point.
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
I don't think we're going to see anything as ingrained as the error get eliminated
I mean, it's one of the classic three columns on the scoreboard. And players will always fumble the baseball
Taylor
10:59
Do you see Swanson as about a 270/330/350 ish player going forward and throughout his career?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
He'll hit for more power than that. You have to be an especially weak kind of hitter to post an ISO of .080 in this day and age
Rasta
11:00
O's trade Machado for a package built around Bregman+...would this be realistic?
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
I think it's realistic that the Orioles would try for that, but I still don't think the Astros would go for it
majordanby
11:00
do you think the tigers will sell at the deadline? they talked a lot about pulling back in the offseason, but that just led to the maybin trade and nothing else.  if they are not within striking distance of a playoff spot, will we see the tigers go full rebuild?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
They'd have to fade more, but they have only so much to sell for real value. What they could really use are a few strong starts by Justin Verlander
Tito
11:01
If the Dodgers trade for Chris Archer do they become the favorites for a championship?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
Technically, according to our own World Series odds, they're already the favorites for a championship
11:02
Now, I don't quite believe that, given how far up the Astros already are. But still, the point remains
Drenjamin
11:02
Is there anything wrong mechanically with Brandon Belt that's led to his lower BABIP and in turn BA this season? ISO and BB% look pretty similar, and he's not one of those fly-ball revo guys
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
No, that'll improve
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