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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/29/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Since the Mariners' system is almost empty, you could say the Rangers could have their pick. Maybe -- maybe -- Kyle Lewis is too steep, but he also didn't make the updated top 131 prospect list, and you just know Dipoto is itching to turn him into someone else
Babe Lincoln
9:35
Do Wheeler and Matz have much trade value?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
Somewhat limited, but it's there. Neither starter would be a rental, and they have both mostly maintained their stuff. Matz is still hovering around 93 miles per hour. The Mets could get something interesting
Joey Bats
9:36
Max Muncy is taking a page out of my book! I can’t find a better comparison
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
I continue to come back to Matt Carpenter, after he turned on the launch angle
9:38
Very similar approaches. Muncy might have a little more power while Carpenter might have a little more bat control, but the profiles and trajectories are right there
Nick
9:39
The Padres got Esteury Ruiz (currently their #11 prospect) and Matt Strahm for Trevor Cahill, Brandon Mauer and Ryan Buchter.....lol
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
Ruiz is having the worst season of his young career and Strahm is essentially a long reliever who was hurt at the time of the exchange
9:41
Doesn't mean the Padres didn't get the better side of the deal, because they did, but it's not like this is laughably one-sided. As much as I'm interested in Strahm, he still hasn't done very much
Vslyke
9:41
Should the A's be sellers at the trade deadline given their low (~10%) playoff odds? If so, would they deal Treinen?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Treinen is going to be the fascinating variable. If the A's creep any closer, I imagine they basically stand still, but Treinen isn't that young and he could become arguably the best reliever on the market
9:43
The A's and the Rays are similar -- they're consolidating while playing for 2019, and I don't think they're eager to subtract. But there's also a lot of merit to the idea of trading good relievers when you have them, if you're not going to make the playoffs. The 2018 A's are very unlikely to make the playoffs, and Treinen could go right in and disrupt the Brad Hand market
Brood550
9:44
Has Hernandez played himself into a starting role in LA?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I'm sure they still don't really trust him against righties
Matt
9:45
Amir Garrett’s velocity seems to have steadily risen all season, as has his K/9. What’s his ceiling? Do you see him closing soon?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
He's probably just getting more and more comfortable with the idea of being a reliever. Don't think he's on the verge of replacing Raisel Iglesias, but if, say, Iglesias is moved, well, Garrett can strike out both righties and lefties, which is what you want from a high-leverage fireman
Garrett might not close any time soon, but he appears good enough to do it
Now, there's a worthwhile conversation to be had regarding whether he should be in the bullpen in the first place. But it's not like the Reds have had any luck at all developing starters
ATL
9:50
How real is Aguilar?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
The power is real, and he seems to have closed up a vulnerability around the top of the zone. That being said, I don't love a chase rate of 35% when it's paired with an in-zone swing rate of 60%. I don't think Aguilar's discipline supports such a high slugging percentage, but even with some imminent regression, Aguilar is an above-average bat
David
9:53
Mariners and Cole Hamels: Seems like a bad idea for the Mariners. Hamels seems like a regression candidate with that FIP
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
An 84 ERA- is good! A 125 FIP- is bad. A 100 xFIP- is okay!
9:54
Hamels seems similar to what he was in 2016. Despite the homers, it's not like he's been totally abused. He's faced tougher opponents than league average.
9:55
Somewhat relevantly, of Hamels' 20 homers allowed, 15 have come with the bases empty. Over his career he's pitched better with runners on, which is something that helps to keep his ERA in check
GraphsFan
9:56
Jeff, what's up with Jose Quintana? Feels like he hasn't been his usual dependable self since the trade to the Cubs.
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Across the board, so many Quintana metrics have gotten just a tiny bit worse. This year he's pitched similar to how he pitched in last year's first half with the White Sox, when his walks had a curious spike
9:59
It's clear that his stuff is mostly okay. Quintana still throws first-pitch strikes. But he has the lowest chase rate he's ever had. Hitters aren't going out of the zone for his fastballs, and that's making everything a little harder
10:00
We know that Quintana likes to work the edges. Someone like him is particularly vulnerable when the zone gets even slightly squeezed. Doubt he feels sufficiently confident to throw over the plate
Nick
10:00
Where will Cole Hamels wind up? Is Seattle a realistic option?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Since they're not on his no-trade list, it's a good possibility, but me, I'd be looking for teams more likely to need help in the second half, or teams more likely to make an actual playoff series
Flex
10:01
Are Tyler Chatwood days must watch baseball? How does he keep wiggling out of it?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Pretty sure he's the opposite of must-watch baseball
Guys with walk problems are unwatchable
10:02
He wiggles out of it because he gets lucky
10:03
Chatwood's ball-in-play wOBAs:

2016: .335
2017: .368
2018: .319
10:04
Chatwood's ball-in-play xwOBAs:

2016: .334
2017: .356
2018: .371
Luck and good Cubs defense. Otherwise Chatwood would be rightly exposed as a disaster
Tony Womack
10:04
What does a Yankee trade for MadBum look like?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Two mid-tier live-armed unicorns
LFC Mike
10:05
Is there any hope for Jose Quintana? He can't go 5 innings anymore.
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