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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/29/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:56
I don't think the Mets are yet in position to blow it all up -- you want to see what second halves you get from Nimmo, Comforto, Smith, Rosario, Lugo, etc
If they're not good, then you might tear it down in the winter
10:57
For now, though, I'd be seeing if there's a huge package out there to be gotten for deGrom or Syndergaard. I'd be okay moving one of those two for a premium return, if it's available. I'd hound the Brewers every single day. Try to sell them on an ace. The Mets could reload with one of these moves, without slamming shut the shorter-term competitive window
James
10:58
At what point over the next 3 years do the Marlins move Realmuto? As a catcher don't they have to be concerned about injuries hurting his value? His value can't go up much higher than it is now.
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
I'd look for something to happen this winter
Don't think it's happening next month
Steven
10:59
Gareth Morgan, former M's 2nd round pick, currently has 138 Ks in 212 ABs between Modesto and the AZL. How historic is that insane rate, and for a guy with 12 HRs (hitting .151/.234/.358), can that be fixed or is he essentially done for?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
Fun fact! There are 946 players in the minors who have batted at least 200 times
Highest strikeout rates:
11:00
Gareth Morgan, 59%
Rod Boykin, 44%
Jhalan Jackson, 43%
Braxton Davidson, 42%
Ryan Court, 40%
A lead, by FIFTEEN PERCENTAGE POINTS
11:01
Last year, Morgan struck out 40% of the time
The year before that, 44%
The year before that, 37%
11:02
I don't ever feel comfortable making conclusive career statements about young players in the low minors, but I cannot imagine that a statistical profile like Morgan's can be salvaged
OddBall Herrera
11:02
Think Jorge Polanco's activation is much of a difference maker for the Twins, or is this too little too late?  I for one am a believer in him but not so much this team.
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
Polanco is fine, the team is not
Charlie
11:03
How many years away do you think we are from statcast-based projections?
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
One or two from the earliest attempts, but I doubt the earliest attempts will make that much of a difference in the grand scheme of things
Blerg
11:04
You wrote about how the fans were projecting surprising hitters. What do you think Max Muncy is going to do the rest of the season?
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
I buy him as something like a 130 wRC+ hitter
I think he's definitely over his head right now, but I believe in his discipline
Adam
11:04
You've been one of my favorite writers of any genre for a decade—which is no small thing because I read a lot! I miss some of your deeply passionate and personal writing, like "The Seattle Mariners Won the World Series: Day X." Having followed you for years, it was hard to watch you burn out (my perception, maybe not yours). Do you think you'll write and share those kind of things again? (Or have you somewhere and I've missed it?)
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
No, you're right, it was definitely burnout. That pace was unsustainable into adulthood
11:06
But also, that particular kind of writing comes out of a strong personal attachment to a baseball team, as a fan. That's been almost completely eroded, to the point where now, professionally, I am a shell of myself!
Go Paxton go!
National League Umpire
11:06
How good could a player with Mike Trout’s skillset be if he simply didn’t care that much about baseball (like Colby Rasmus)? Apologies for the EWPod-style question in a Jeff Sullivan baseball chat.
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
To a certain extent, you could argue the player could be *better* if he reduced how much he cared
11:07
Might achieve psychological optimization if he didn't live and die with every game
11:08
But there's approaching the game with a healthy perspective, and then there's approaching the game with indifference. If a player is good but indifferent, he won't work that hard to improve. And that's when the value starts to disintegrate
Slumps would last longer, declines would be more pronounced. You'd start with an All-Star, and then the WAR would steadily drop year over year
E
11:09
Is Adam Eaton the odd outfielder out in Washington?
Jeff Sullivan
11:09
Not as long as Michael Taylor has an 86 wRC+
CT
11:09
So JD Martinez is on a permanent hot streak since last ASB?
Jeff Sullivan
11:09
He is an elite hitter
National League Umpire
11:10
How many games ahead of the Cubs would the Brewers need to be at the All-Star break for you to have them as NL Central favorites?
Jeff Sullivan
11:10
Five
PTBNL
11:10
I'm kind of surprised I haven't seen any pieces about Richard Rodriguez. After bumbling around the Orioles and Astros minor league systems for a few years, he's having a great year in the Pirates bullpen. 2.12 FIP, 12:1 K:BB ratio in about 30 IP. Thoughts on what the Pirates might have found to unlock his potential?
Jeff Sullivan
carl
11:11
why do you think the rest of season projections for trout would show a low 4 war, which prorated over a full season would be his worst season? he's in the middle of his best ever season and has set his bar so high so it's weird to see a half season projection that sets his bar "low"
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