Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/30/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:09
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Hello friend
I've missed you
Edwin
9:09
Approximately what % of Wins are attributed to Starting Pitchers?  Any idea?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
A very precise idea!
9:10
This year, there have been 1184 wins, 799 of which have gone to starters. So that's 67.5%
Two decades ago, the rate was 69.9%
9:11
Not actually that much of a drop, but I'm sure it gets more and more dramatic the further back you go, obviously
v2micca
9:11
It feels like Tyler Flowers morphed into an elite pitch framer in the last couple of years and no one really noticed.  How did this happen?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
According to the data at Baseball Prospectus, Flowers has actually always been a really good pitch-framer. Maybe now it's just that more people are recognizing him for it
9:13
The *real* dramatic shift has been as a hitter. Flowers has cut wayyyyyyy down on his strikeouts and pop-ups. He's a good hitter now! It's incredible. And I'd be writing about him, but I know that Ben Lindbergh is already in the process of writing about him, so I don't want to step on toes
Plus Ben is just going to be more thorough than I would've been anyway
9:14
In 2014, Flowers struck out or popped up in 38% of his plate appearances. This year he's at 21%.
Daniel Carroll
9:15
I'm getting laid off from my day job today (I've known in advance for months, and I'm getting a nice severance). Do you have any life advice to share? I'm thinking about playing some pickup baseball today, too.
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
An opportunity like this is exceedingly rare. Go do at least one of the things you've been putting off for some time. One of the big things, I mean, one of the things you always said you didn't have time for
9:16
If you're a traveler, travel. If you're a hiker, hike. If you're a hobbyist, hobby. Immerse yourself in something. You will rarely have the chance to be so unencumbered
Jack
9:17
The Red Sox can't call up Rusney Castillo or eat any salary of his in a trade without going over the misery . However he is hitting very well in AAA.
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
In fairness, he's not hitting *that* well in Triple-A
9:18
But, yes, he is a little bit trapped. It's a shitty circumstance
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:18
Is Logan Morrison getting lucky or unlucky, or is this about what we should expect from his batted balls? On the lucky side is a good but not outrageous 24.4% HR/FB rate. But on the unlucky side, despite 43.1%/42.6% Med/Hard contact, he's running a .257 BABIP. He's underperforming his xwOBA by a bit under .01 but I don't have a great sense of that metric yet.
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
As a pull hitter who now puts everything in the air, Morrison is never going to run a normal-looking BABIP. He's a slow, fly-ball-hitting lefty
9:20
That's the profile of most of the xwOBA underachievers
But the power is legitimate. I don't know if Morrison is really a 140 wRC+ type, but 120-130 isn't unreasonable
Turns out, just like the Blue Jays with Justin Smoak, the Rays saw something here
9:21
Or they got lucky. Who knows!
Bork
9:22
Is Yunel Escobar the dumbest MLB player? His antics last night keep supporting this.
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
I'm not going to say he's the dumbest, but he's probably in the lower quartile
9:23
It wasn't even that long ago that Escobar was considered a toxic personality. It's remarkable he still has a job in the first place
“I think that’s stupid, man,” Jansen said. “Nobody’s going to fight. Just the stupidity of major leagues, when it goes to a brawl like this. I wish this could be over with. If you want to go 1-on-1, go 1-on-1. You can meet somewhere else. Nobody’s going to fight.”
Jacob h cornhole
9:23
Every time I see PST I think its a secret (i.e. Jeff Sullivan chat starts at 9 am pssst). I'm just lucky to be one of those who were on the invite
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
And then the damn front page runs that banner up top that spoils the surprise
This is like a FanGraphs speakeasy
another bad dynasty manager
9:24
Jeff:  I've read rumors that Justin Bour might get traded to the Yankees.  I can't seem to confirm that anywhere.  What have you heard?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
I haven't *heard* anything specific. It makes all the sense in the world that Bour would be on their radar, as a good lefty-hitting 1B on a go-nowhere team. I don't know why the Marlins would be in a hurry to move him, though, since he's cheap and fine and under control for a while
9:26
The Yankees should just trade for Duda and be done with it
I bet they could get Tommy Joseph for pretty cheap, but Duda's a better fit
The Average Sports Fan
9:27
How were so many people so wrong about the Giants?
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