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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/30/17
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Chaps
9:50
Hi Jeff. Suppose the Tigers traded Verlander to the Astros (or any contending team with a SP need). Is there any way to tell if he would have a bounce back similar to Randy Johnson when he was traded from the Mariners to the Astros in 1998 (change of scenery / motivation on a contending team and whatnot)?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
I've always had a little trouble with that narrative -- advanced stats show that, even with the Mariners, 1998 Randy Johnson was dominant. His ERA was up due to luck and defense
Of course, he was better with Houston, but being in the NL was helpful
9:52
Plus, Johnson's ERA got lower from April, to May, to June, to July. So he was trending well at the time
9:53
Anyway, this isn't about Randy Johnson!
9:54
Problem with Verlander is that his indicators are actually much worse. Major decline in strikeouts and walks. Encouragingly, he's Justin Verlander, with his own experience, and his stuff looks fine. His fastball is strong. I think any team trading for Justin Verlander would expect him to pitch much better in the second half than in the first
Moelicious
9:54
Thoughts on whether Jose Pirela can stick as an above average regular?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
I'm still skeptical, but it sure looks like something has changed in 2017, and I'm probably going to write about him in some depth after he accrues a larger sample of data
YO JEFF
9:55
McCutchen to the Dodgers?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
A definite possibility
Marwin Gonzales- Power Hitter
9:57
What do you think of Paulino? The strikeouts and walks have been good, but the results haven't been great.
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
I'd like to know what changed between Double-A and Triple-A. Paulino used to throw like 68% strikes. Against higher competition, he's been more around 61-62%, and that's going to make it tough for him to pitch with any efficiency
He doesn't yet have big-league location skills, but the stuff is legitimate, clearly
KoalaMeat
9:58
Keon Broxton's K% sucks
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Yes
What's amazing is, over 518 career plate appearances, he has 38% strikeouts and an above-average wRC+
9:59
The strikeouts will always be there
StL Steve
10:00
I'm going to the Cards-Nats game tonight and was stoked to watch Trea fly around the bases. No question. Just sad.
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
If it makes you feel any better, the Cardinals have allowed the second-fewest steals in baseball, so Turner probably wasn't going to run anyway
Shuck Bowalter
10:00
Schoop seems like the Orioles' most deserving All-Star. how much are you buying his breakout?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
He's interesting, because he's swinging a lot less often than he used to, but I'm not sure he's *actually* more disciplined. There's a difference between discipline and patience. I've had him on my radar and will probably write him up before too long
Feels like an August post if he's still hitting
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
10:02
Going backcountry camping this weekend for the first time solo.  Any tips/advice?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
Nothing aside from have fun and be careful. Don't let every noise in the dark spook you into thinking something's going to kill you. I don't know where you're going to be, and maybe there will be lots of people around, but when you're solo, you have to take care to closely evaluate any and every risk. If you get lost or injured, you could be screwed. Do what you can to prevent any physical harm
Jim
10:03
The dodgers have 8 players with 1.8 WAR or greater.
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
Good baseball team
Jack
10:04
What is more valuable to a team like the Rays? The ~$5 million they have in international cap space or selling all of it for ~$20 million in payroll space.
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
The Rays are signing Wander Franco, right?
Seems to suggest they've decided they like that money more than they like what they could trade it for
Daniel Carroll
10:06
I think it'd be cool to build a twitterbot that identifies games at higher leverage situations. Do you have any idea how you'd make that?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
A form of this has existed, albeit not on Twitter https://theringer.com/mlb-tv-game-changer-redzone-4e5d5e81c99c
Peter
10:07
Do you think it's reasonable to expect Votto's BABIP to rebound in the second half and put up even better numbers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
It kind of already has -- his BABIP was truly awful in April, and it's been well north of .300 ever since
Part of the compromise here, I bet, is that he'll run a lower BABIP in exchange for the reduced strikeouts. But he's still amazing
RockiesFan
10:08
Any chance Bellinger goes back to AAA this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
lol
James
10:09
If the ball is indeed juiced, does that disproportionately impact teams that have built/developed fly ball-centric staffs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
Not as much as you'd think. There's a correlation between GB% and HR/FB%, meaning that the more grounders you get, the more dangerous the fly balls are that you allow
10:10
So a fly-ball staff would allow more homers, sure, but a ground-ball staff would *also* allow more homers
The bigger penalty would be against a team that might have built a contact-oriented staff. That's a whoopsadoodle
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