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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/8/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Hello friends
Sorry sorry! Podcasting!
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
hscer
9:08
I know they're completely independent, but the Caps make me feel better about the Nats chances this year. Is that sports?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
That's sports
It also shows the power of the narratives we make up about them to make them more interesting
9:10
It was compelling to think of the entire DC area as simply being cursed. Now, the Nats' history is unchanged from where it was yesterday morning, but it's easier to see how that doom isn't actually permanent. Every year, there's a champion! If it can happen for Ovechkin, it can happen for anybody
Poised
9:10
Is Arenado a better walker now or is he just seeing fewer pitches to hit?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Arenado is a little more selective than he used to be, but he's also been swinging and missing a little more often, which has led to deeper counts. Deeper counts invariably lead to more strikeouts and walks, and both those rates for him are up
Chapultepec Audiorama
9:12
The Capitals won! Which of the 7 World Series-less teams is most likely to win their first in the next 5 years?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
So we're picking from the Mariners, Nationals, Padres, Rockies, Rangers, Rays, and Brewers
9:13
I'll immediately eliminate the Mariners, Padres, Rockies, Rangers, and Rays
Leaves us with the Nationals and Brewers. I think it's a toss-up between them. I've been concerned about the Nationals' future before, but with Soto emerging as he has, it might not be so bad
Ghost of Billy Butler
9:14
With the M’s and Red Sox/Yanks looking good for the two AL wild cards, do you think the A’s and Rays are kicking themselves for putting together middling teams this year, instead of pushing one way or the other?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Both the A's and Rays know exactly where they are -- teams on the upswing who aren't yet quite ready for prime time. Too talented to tear down, but too limited to build up like crazy
9:16
They haven't done things perfectly, but I think they're content. They've long figured they were playing for .500. And even though the records are what they are, I'll point out that, by BaseRuns, the Rays' winning percentage should be .546, with the Mariners at .547
The Rays have a better BaseRuns record than the Brewers, Indians, and Cardinals. I know there are reasons for underperforming, but the Rays have not been bad
Stuafoo
9:17
How does Felix’s curve stack up? Could upping its usage be a path back to average?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
That's sort of what he's been trying to do. He has the highest curveball rate of his career. He could probably stand to push it even further, but ultimately, he needs to be able to locate a fastball. I wonder if he'd be best at basically a 1:1:1 mix of fastballs, curveballs, and changeups
Lunar verLander
9:18
So when are we getting tWRC+ and sWRC+?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
We need to get BB- and K- first!
Kiermaier's Post Nasal Drip
9:20
Hi Jeff.
What is up with Dallas  Keuchel?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Overall, he's been almost exactly what he was two years ago. Not too far off. His slider hasn't been very effective -- its whiff rate is way down -- but otherwise, he's a familiar-looking guy. One tweak away from getting back on track
Rick Souddress
9:23
What reliever should the Angels be targeting and what should they give up?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
How aggressive the Angels are is going to depend on how much closer they can get to the Mariners/Astros in the coming weeks. They know they're in the race, but you don't want to push too much into the middle when you're several games out of a playoff spot
9:25
It would probably be pretty easy for them to trade for like Darren O'Day. But I wonder if they look to San Diego for a Tyson Ross/Kirby Yates two-fer
Solves two of their major problems. Might even be able to throw in an outfielder if Kole Calhoun doesn't figure out baseball again
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
9:26
Where do you stand on luke heimlich not being drafted: elated or ecstatic?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Surprised. I figured there were a few teams willing to take the chance, but in the end maybe they got peer pressured into staying away
9:27
There's still time for a team to sign him as an undrafted free agent. Such a team might think that doing so quietly will keep it off the media radar. It would not
Overall, it's kind of powerful to see baseball collectively prioritize something other than winning
Brandon M
9:29
Should the rangers consider optioning Odor? Profar has been performing well and Andrus will be activated from the DL soon while Odor has continued his poor performance from last year
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
I'm given to understand that Odor has a couple of option years remaining. As you say, his wRC+ is 51, after last year's 61
9:30
I think the Rangers should do more than consider it -- I think the Rangers should do it. Profar has earned the opportunity, and Odor has lost the benefit of the doubt
9:31
He's been an awful player for too many months. He needs more work, or at least a shock to the system
CamdenWarehouse
9:32
Kelvin Herrera is quietly having a great year in relief (no walks and only one HR allowed in 25 outings). what sort of value could he return to the Royals?
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
That breaking ball is really working wonders for him
He's slowed it down by four miles per hour. Four miles per hour!
9:33
Good reliever, contract season
Looking at something kind of like last year's Addison Reed trade
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