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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/8/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:34
If you don't like that, then, last year's Tony Watson trade
Or the Pat Neshek trade!
9:36
Multiple prospects coming back. Don't expect any of the Gleyber Torres type. But Herrera will be one of the better late-inning relievers available
kevinthecomic
9:36
How often when a coach makes a 'mechanical' change, either with a pitcher or a batter, is the change is actually something real as opposed to a placebo so that the pitcher or batter can believe that an error was found and then corrected?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
I think that does happen, but probably not very often, because it's hard and disruptive to make a mechanical change, so there's risk that goes along with it
If you're just making a change for mental reasons, well, what are you *actually* changing? You have to be careful
9:39
I do think -- and this should maybe be written about -- the media at large makes too much of reported adjustments. It's a whole genre of baseball writing now: player improves after making X change. It's compelling and insightful when it's true and significant, but, I mean, baseball players are ALWAYS making adjustments. It's critical to separate the impactful ones from the routine and useless ones
Kyf
9:41
What’s the deal with Gary Sanchez? Is he just getting unlucky, with his low Babip?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
Not quite -- he does have a career-high pop-up rate. Those are basically automatic outs
He hit 14 pop-ups last season. He already has 15 this year
9:42
But still, here are Sanchez's year-to-year BABIPs on ground balls: .250, .240, .071
That's going to change moving forward, as the occasional grounder with eyes makes its way to the grass
Joe
9:43
The Orioles aren't gonna get much for Machado, are they? Relatedly, everything is terrible.
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
They'll do okay, but at shortstop, Machado is likely to be in a market with Andrus, and at third, he's likely to be in a market with Donaldson, Beltre, and Moustakas
9:45
Machado is the best of all of those players, but there aren't many teams with needs. The Braves are there, of course, but they're unlikely to want to sacrifice too much for a short-term 2018 push
Machado will easily bring more back than J.D. Martinez did last summer. But I don't think such a trade will involve a blue-chip, can't-miss prospect. There's just not enough value there
ChiSox2020
9:46
True or False: Baltimore gets a better return for Machado than NYY got for Chapman?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
According to Baseball America, Gleyber Torres entered 2016 as the No. 41 prospect, and he entered 2017 as the No. 5 prospect
Right in the middle of that, he headlined the Chapman return
9:48
I think it's important to understand there's a difference between Torres then and Torres today, but that being said, if the Orioles get someone of Torres' caliber in this move, they should be very pleased
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:49
Whenever expansion is brought up, there is a question of if the area can support a team. Certainly NYC or north Jersey could support another team, but teams have veto power for whatever reason within their territory. Is it a foregone conclusion that the Yankees and Mets cannot be persuaded ($$$) to allow another team into an MSA with more than twice as many people as Chicago?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
I expect that overall it will just be much much easier to put a new team in a brand-new market
The New York area could *definitely* support a third baseball team, but it's not a coincidence you never see Manfred talking about that
Guest
9:51
Admit it. You're late on purpose at this point. There's no way you always have stuff going on Friday mornings.
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
We record a podcast almost every Friday morning from 8-9am
As typically happens with every goodbye, it stretches longer than it ought to
Shawn Baseball, baby!
9:52
Hi Jeff,
I find myself having a hard time arguing against people who say the shift should be banned, or at least limited. While obviously technically within the rules, all it seems to do is limit non-home run offense and take away potentially awesome defensive plays.
Am I a grumpy old man? I do turn 30 in a couple weeks.
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
For one thing, it's hard to create a rule in the first place. How do you define a shift? Do you draw a line out from home plate, intersecting second base? Even if you did that, teams would still shift right up to the line
9:54
And for another thing, I don't know if you've been reading Russell Carleton's recent work at Baseball Prospectus, but there's compelling evidence to suggest that, overall, the shift hasn't actually...worked
Now, it's changed the game, certainly, but BABIP has hardly moved, and where the shift takes away some singles, it apparently replaces them with increased walks
No evidence I've seen to suggest that great defensive plays have been reduced. They're just different
9:55
If there's a problem, it's strikeouts. Reduce strikeouts and you get a lot of baseball back
TJ
9:55
Happy Friday!  Thanks for the chat. What's your outlook on Pomeranz?  He had a couple good starts, but in general has looked pretty abysmal.  Think he turns it around like he did last year if/when healthy?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Very difficult pitcher to trust to remain healthy
9:57
I like his actual talent, and his curveball is special, but this year he hasn't thrown his usual stuff. Higher risk than most
Pat
9:57
How popular is THE BOARD now? While I'm really enjoying reading your many articles, THE BOARD gives me another reason to come to fangraphs.
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I love THE BOARD
Kiley and Eric are so wonderful
Slugger27
9:57
at what point will hand gestures to the dugout after every base hit stop being a thing?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
It's probably just habit now, like basketball players giving muted low-fives between free throws
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