Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/9/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friends
9:08
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Sorry for that delay, was finishing a podcast
FanGraphs looks different now. I wonder if there are opinions
Dodgers
9:08
Do the Dodgers make a big splash this summer?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
I'm not anticipating one, but I suppose it could in part come down to where they are with Hill and Wood. Just generally I continue to figure they'll make the B- and C-tier moves, around their own flexibility
Jack
9:09
Will both American League Wild Cards come from the East again this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
That's my operating assumption, although the Mariners could make a valiant attempt at prevention
Stuafoo
9:09
Why does yovanni gallardo still have a job? I realize the Ms are in need of a human meat shield or two to suck up some innings, but a guy like andrew moore has to be a better option
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
They're in no position to turn down innings at this point. Gallardo is basically an MLB #6, but they're missing a lot of 1-through-5
9:11
If and when healthy pitchers return, Gallardo is likely to be on the outs
Which is actually kind of a shame given that he's shown a significant velocity bounceback. He's up something like three ticks! Three ticks!
Dion Phanooooof
9:11
How do think the Rockies are likely to split playing time when David Dahl returns? If story continues to struggle do you think Desmond gets any starts at SS?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Last I heard, Dahl's rehab process had stalled
That was a few days ago
9:12
Soooooooo nothing to worry about any time soon. Dahl seems like he's still a long ways off. And if he does get back, chances are someone else will be injured or struggling
Moltar
9:13
Which team is closer to contention, the Mets or the Mariners?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
Well, the Mariners, since they're in a better spot just in 2017
Like, the Mariners are technically in contention *now*
JTT
9:14
Jeff, counterpoint to your Epstein/Boras debate. Scott Boras is disgustingly rich, like “F you” rich. Theo Epstein is just regular rich.
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
Yes, this is among the valid counterpoints. The Boras life plan is really not so bad
Roaches, Twinkies, and Bartolo
9:16
If MLB expanded with two more teams, how many players would teams be able to protect in an expansion draft? Who would be a potential first pick in such a scenario?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
If it worked anything like the previous expansion draft, teams would be able to protect 15 players from throughout their entire organization
9:17
Plus I'm pretty sure recent draft picks were also automatically protected
9:18
So while I can't predict how the draft would look without doing a lot of background work, I wouldn't be surprised if the first pick came from one of the very deepest organizations, like the Cubs/Dodgers
You know how the Cubs look. They're more than 15 quality players deep
Tj
9:19
What does a 2018 CC Sabathia free agent contract look like? I can't wrap my head around it
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
He'll be 37 years old, and very obviously that's going to work against him. A few years back Bartolo Colon signed that deal for 2 years and $20 million. Wouldn't be shocked if Sabathia wound up with something similar, albeit maybe higher in salary since he's younger and coming from a very tough division
It's a virtual impossibility he gets 3+ years, and teams will also limit themselves given that Sabathia probably won't be thought of as a guy you want starting in the playoffs
Chaps
9:21
Have there been any studies indicating a relation between a pitcher's pitch type & speed to a batter's exit speed & trajectory, or is it widely understood that there's no strong correlation between the two?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
Just in general, there's a very weak relationship between pitch speed and exit velocity. Pitchers "providing the power" is mostly a myth
As for speed and trajectory, though, you can probably use your imagination. Sinkers get low launch angles. Four-seamers get high launch angles
Baryolo Cologne
9:24
Do you think we'll see a breakout from Castellanos coming? All of the underlying seem to assume its coming...
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
He is much better than his current 90 wRC+
9:25
My favorite thing about him is that he basically never pops up
I'm not convinced he has the approach to become an elite-level slugger, but he should be comfortably better than average
weezy
9:26
finding this chat was harder than expected on the new layout!
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
For me, too!
Matt
9:27
Just looking at Odor's periphs. Everything is in line with last year - K%, BB%, GB%, FB%, etc. ONLY difference is IFFB% and it's massive. Is there some buy-low opportunity there? Can he turn it around this year, or is he just swinging super hard and not going to stop?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
No, he's a lot better than this. I never loved Odor because of his approach, but he's good enough to be something like an average hitter. When he's going bad, he looks terrible, but he's going to have a much improved second half
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