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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/9/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:30
Just leaving aside the injury problems of 2017, I bet Otani would project as something like a 5-win pitcher
Yu Darvish so far has topped out at 4.6
Otani, obviously, would come with big upside, but you know how projections are
curious
10:31
buying domingo santana breakout?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
He's been a good hitter for a while. Now the numbers are just doing a better job of showing it
Frankie
10:32
Thoughts on Segura extension?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
Maybe the most interesting aspect is how it signals the Mariners' refusal to tear down
Not that they ought to do that right now, but this suggests they won't go that far almost no matter what
10:34
He's still young enough and good enough I don't think the contract will become a problem. I do think he's meaningfully different from the bad hitter he used to be
Leraen
10:34
Any chance that Astros make a run at Verlander?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Yes
Rod
10:35
Could LAD go after Jaime Garcia and Arodys Vizcaino?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
I don't know what use they'd have for Garcia. Vizcaino, sure
Rob
10:35
I'm curious whether you think so many guys seemingly completely reinventing themselves this year has implications for the state of analytics? It seems to throw cold water on the whole notion of regression based projection models. One mechanical change and it's a completely different guy. Or does this seeming trend still only amount to a few outliers? And understate how difficult one mechanical change can be?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Mostly, I think, we're still dealing with a small number of outliers. Maybe a few more than there used to be, but overall, players still tend to be what they have been, once you give the numbers time to settle out
It's a lot easier to look different for two months than it is to keep looking different for six months
Now, I do think there are more changes being made than ever, and that raises important questions. But our models will just change and improve, and projections haven't gotten any better or worse over the years. We're still doing all right
LA
10:37
Is Mike Trout the Clayton Kershaw of position players, or is Clayton Kershaw the Mike Trout of pitchers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Kershaw was good first
Cumby
10:37
Joe Girardi seemed pretty confident that Tanaka still has all his regular pitch movement and attributes for him. In a press conference he said that he doesn't really know what the deal with Tanaka's increased homerun rate is. I know it's not like a manager to just completely attack a starter's methods in a press conference, but is he right? Is Tanaka just pitching the same way and getting punished more for it?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
When I've looked, I haven't been able to find anything. And I'm sure Girardi has asked the Yankees' analysts about the same stuff, and he's probably just passing along their message. If Tanaka is off, it's for reasons that aren't evident in the measurements
Pine Marten
10:38
Is the the NL playoff picture already set? I feel like the only situation in flux is if the Brewers can outlast the Cubs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
It definitely feels predictable. Which, hey, it's interesting how different it looks from what appeared like a predictable preseason landscape.
I think we'll end up with the same three division winners as expected, but at least we should have some new WC blood
Nick
10:40
Now that you are a co-host on the Effectively Wild podcast, does that mean you won't be doing podcasts with Cistuilli anymore? :( It feels like it's been awhile since I've heard you there.
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
That's always up to Carson, not me. We haven't talked about it
jon
10:40
If the Phillies really view Maikel Franco as part of their future, why don't they send him down to AAA to help him regain some confidence?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
Because you could make the argument that he won't learn anything in Triple-A
10:41
His problem is major-league pitching, not necessarily his confidence
Odubel Herrera might've been suffering from a lack of confidence. Now he's on a hot streak.
Bullins
10:42
As a baseball and Red Sox fan, I am sick to death of David Price whining and crying at the media. He brings this upon himself and I dont feel the least bit sorry for him. Any way this works out for Price? Obviously Boston isnt going to trade that salary and talent away.
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
I can tell I'm doing something right by the fact that I have no real good idea what you're talking about
JKD
10:43
Since being moved to the bullpen (in AA), Erick Fedde has a 35.6% K-BB. How long before the Nats call him up?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
It's still just nine games, and he's thrown only 63% strikes. That being said, he just worked back-to-back days for the first time, so his moment is coming soon
Troutmageddon
10:44
Is Puig ever going to get back to where he was his rookie year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
No
Frankie
10:44
When was the last time you cried?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
March
David
10:44
It'll take some time getting used to the new page, but I think I like how it's laid out. Once I get used to it, I think it'll be easier to find things.
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
Excellent!
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