Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/1/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:45
He's 19 and he just got sent back from Triple-A to Double-A. Look for him in September
Erik
10:46
Wil Myers is suddenly putting up star numbers for the Padres and is only 25. Is he maybe actually really good? And is he more valuable as the central building block or a trade piece?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
He's hitting the ball out everywhere, he doesn't hack, and he's improved his ability to make contact. I think the Padres need to keep him
mtsw
10:48
Is Dylan Bundy in the Orioles rotation by the end of the year? Obviously not ideal for him from a development perspective, but given their dearth of other options, maybe they should just throw him into the deep end of the pool?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
I wouldn't be surprised to see him spot start, but I would be surprised to see him start regularly
FirstOldTimer
10:48
Jeff, no question but I just wanted to say you've been writing some incredibly good articles recently and I really appreciate your work. Between your "Clutch" articles on the Mets and Rangers, highlighting another amazing thing about Trout, and especially that awesome article about Franco you've had the best articles on the website in the past week. Keep it up!
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
You are very kind and I'm not above publicizing this compliment
Jack Glasscock's Cup
10:49
Have you ever thought about the day-after effect from knuckleballers? I remember a decade or so ago announcers mentioning that hitters would go into the tunnel between at-bats to hit speed in the cage to avoid a Wakefield hangover. Any truth to that?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
I don't remember much about the day-after effect but I have at least become a believer in the pitcher-after effect
I think, when you start a knuckleballer, you make your next relievers more effective
10:50
And I *suspect* the same is true when using any sort of really unusual pitcher. Like, maybe it would be really hard to adjust from a Chris Sale to an over-the-top power righty
K-Man
10:51
what is the most frustrating ballpark feature in baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
The tomahawk chop
Alex
10:51
Do you see any team getting desperate enough to talk Coppy into trading Teheran?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
They'll try. With the market being what it is, Teheran is one of the more obvious pieces to move. So much talk lately about the Braves keeping him, but I can't imagine that isn't just posturing
Mike
10:52
Did the Braves wait too long on Vizcaino? His recent struggles have to be affecting his value, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
Ultimately he still throws hard and he's super difficult to hit. Teams might give him a pass for struggling when rumors are flying around every day
marc
10:52
Does the Kershaw injury make the Dodgers re-think Urias to the pen soon?
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
I don't think so. I think preserving Urias and sticking to that plan is a priority for them
Josh
10:53
What's going on w/ Jose Abreu?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Earlier in the year, he was going similar to Puig -- couldn't do anything with inside fastballs, and then that left him vulnerable to breaking stuff away. But Abreu just posted a 128 wRC+ in June. So he's out of his slump
Mike
10:53
Surprised how hard the MLB came down on the Red Sox?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Definitely
keith
10:53
What do you expect out of Stanton ROS?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
Lots of dingers. He's fine
Josh
10:54
Do you agree with Dave that Boston might now be the favorite to land Lucroy? Does a package around Devers make sense?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
I could see it being the Dodgers.
Going to command a big haul
TheDudeofNY
10:54
Your Rangers article's headline today was a LIE! They could have had a Clutch/162 of 13.3, and thus be even MORE clutch!
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
I think that was my favorite discovery from the research. In some of the Rangers' very most clutch situations, they've hit into line-outs.
Matt
10:55
A lot has been written on luck lately. From a stats standpoint, what is it? (I'm being serious.) Is it just sequencing? Is there something more traditional that it translates to, like "intangibles" and "chemistry" or some other concept? Or is it just an accumulation of "all the things we can't currently identify in our analytical models"?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
I've never been a big fan of the word "luck". I think "luck" is dismissive and it comes with bad connotations. I prefer to think of things as being sustainable or unsustainable. Take the Rangers hitting, for instance. I could say their clutchness so far has been lucky, but you see how that sucks? They've been putting together all those at-bats, after all. Why pretend like it's just statistical noise?
10:58
I can say, at the same time, that the Rangers deserve credit for what they've done, but it's basically impossible for them to keep it up. It's not a "true talent" of theirs, no matter how much someone might try to find an explanation. Over large-enough samples, numbers tend to even out across different situations. That's an observable truth. In smaller samples, you see discrepancies. They're all usually fluke-y, but they also all matter. Ian Desmond isn't lucky if he hits a critical eighth-inning homer
TheDudeofNY
10:58
What are you doing for the 4th of July?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
Getting sunburned in the Oregon desert
Jack Glasscock's Cup
10:58
Would Jay Bruce make the Indians better for the rest of this season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
Slightly
Drew
11:01
Edwin Diaz's ceiling looks most like:
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
Maybe something like recent Arodys Vizcaino, actually
11:02
But if Diaz keeps on throwing strikes like this, he'd be a little beter
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