Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/15/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Hello friends
Sorry about that delay, had an actual work phone call!
I got to say words out loud! In the morning!
somedude
9:12
How much value will Tyson Ross hold when he comes off the DL?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
Very very little
9:13
First of all, he's still not particularly close. And then other teams need to see him pitching effectively. That's impossible for him to do before this year's deadline
With a hot finish, provided he gets back, he can be an offseason move, but I see this one stretching to next July when Ross can be offered as a rental No. 2
Mike
9:14
Better player in five years, Swanson or Albies?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
I'll take Albies
Good thing they have them both!
Section 118
9:15
How much does the Pomeranz trade inform us about the haul Rich Hill will bring back for Oakland?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
I don't think it sheds that much light -- pretty different circumstances. And Boston might've paid the most for Hill, and now they're effectively out of the picture. But Hill is going to cost a pretty good prospect or two, even though how much he has left this season is an open question
9:16
This is the big issue with Hill and Pomeranz, both -- they're obviously effective starters, but they're getting into high-innings territory without throwing many innings last year or the year before. So it's hard to see how much they could help in the playoffs
A-A-Ron
9:16
Hey Jeff - It was announced that Dylan Bundy is getting the start for the Orioles @ Tampa this Sunday. Do you think the O's give him a shot in the rotation for the second half or is this just a spot to see how things go?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
It starts as a spot. If he shows promise, there'll be more opportunities. They have to be careful with him, on account of his workload and whatnot, but the Orioles are not in position to turn down giving more innings to an electric arm in the rotation
JTT
9:17
Jeff, nobody saw Pomeranz breakout coming but this does not look good for Beane. Identifying these types of players is what he has built his entire career around. 2014-2016 have not been banner years for him. Also, what the hell is Carson saying at the beginning of all his podcasts? It sounds like “Spittoon made of brass this is carson cistulli”
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
"That's Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass..."
9:20
You're right, obviously, about the A's. Even in the best evaluation, Yonder Alonso wasn't an exciting acquisition. Not a lot of upside there. The A's went for perceived safety and gave away Pomeranz's ceiling. Now, to them, Pomeranz was a reliever. To a lot of teams, he was a reliever. And there was talk he was going to be non-tendered. But if there's a lesson in there, it's that you should prefer the certainty of *good* hitters, but you shouldn't bother with the certainty of mediocre ones
9:21
As Mets vs. Cubs conversations demonstrate, you prefer to have good young bats over good young arms. But if you have a boring bat and an arm with upside, maybe don't sell that upside
JR
9:22
Hello, friend. Today I just learned Michael Fulmer and Carson Fulmer are not, in fact, the same person. What a country!
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
Who's ready for another live-armed White Sox pitching prospect who doesn't throw enough strikes?
Frankie Fast Hands
9:24
What are the chances Dbacks keep Shelby Miller down long enough to get an extra year of control?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
Let's see if we can walk through this one
Miller has already pitched in the minors this year, but that was a rehab assignment, so that still counts as big-league service
9:26
Coming into the year, he had three years and 30 days of service. A service year is, what, 172 days? So Miller would need to finish this year short of 142
9:27
That works out to something like a month and a half in the minors. That would be pushing it, I think. If Miller *really* struggles down there, then maybe. But he was good in the minors in his rehab. I think he's back in a few weeks
Dude
9:29
Thoughts on Hosmer & Boras "asking" for $200M. It may have just been typical agent talk, but what do you see Hosmer getting once he hits the market?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
Working to Hosmer's advantage is that he'll hit the market going into his age-28 season. So there'll be some prime left. But he's not a superstar player, and the market might have learned a little something about big commitments to first basemen. Brandon Belt just had his FA years valued at $16 million or so, a couple years out. Does Hosmer really deserve more?
A-A-Ron
9:32
Are you buying a second-half rebound from Sonny Gray? He looks healthy finally, but God those numbers...
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
He's been better since coming off the DL, and I don't think he's broken, so he should pitch pretty well. But I don't think he's going to get traded in the next two weeks. I don't think he can answer the lingering questions that fast
ken
9:32
will aroldis chapman ever start?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
nope
mtsw
9:34
Dylan Bundy is starting on Sunday. Have the Orioles found a new and exciting way to convert a valuable future asset into a mediocre present one?
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
Gotta see if he can start sometime. Might as well do it when your pitching sucks and you're in first place
Mike
9:34
With the Red Sox being out, do the Braves actually hold on to Teheran? The Red Sox were the best match, right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
The Red Sox were the best match, but not the only match. Teheran's cost-controlled nature really helps him out here. I can't imagine the Braves hold on to him unless they're being silly
9:35
When Pomeranz got traded yesterday I was in the process of writing a post about how the Braves shouldn't keep Teheran. I had to stop that and pivot, but maybe I'll get back to it Monday
Josh
9:35
Any major disagreements with Dave on trade value?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
Dave opened up his list to FanGraphs feedback before anything was published so we all got to weigh in before the list went up. So the big disagreements were hammered out
9:37
And I think it's important to note that Dave talks to a lot of people actually in the game. That's what the list is really about. I can have my own opinions on various players, but I'm not in position to make a trade, so my perception is functionally irrelevant
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