JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/19/17

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/19/17

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Jeff Sullivan

9:22

Watson at the absolute very least, and probably for a guy who might be able to help as soon as 2018

2-D

9:22

Nice timing on the Kahnle article.

Jeff Sullivan

9:22

I was thinking about scheduling it to post this morning, instead of yesterday afternoon, but I had a hunch, because this time of year always makes me worried about scheduling ahead. Got lucky

Neal Huntington

9:23

Is there any chance I trade Cutch or Cole at the deadline?

Jeff Sullivan

9:23

Cutch yes, Cole probably no

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

9:23

Who made the better trade yesterday--the Diamondbacks, the Tigers, the Yankees, or the White Sox? Ooh, or the Rays (Chaz Roe for cash considerations)?

Jeff Sullivan

9:24

I think the Diamondbacks did well. You wouldn't believe how close I came to writing a Chaz Roe post, though. I think he's going to help more than people think

That is, if he's healthy now. The Rays know how good his slider is

Zane

9:24

Do you think that how the White Sox fare in the next 5-ish years is going to seriously affect how prospects are valued in trades? If they do really well, not much would change, but if their rebuild doesn't go well, will prospects be valued lower in trades than they are now?

Jeff Sullivan

9:25

You'd need to have a whole bunch of prospects disappointing, across the board. The White Sox aren't the first team to try to rebuild. It's worked for the Astros. It's worked for the Cubs. It's working for the Brewers, and one could argue it's working for the Braves

John

9:26

Rosenthal's most recent column suggested the idea of the Yankees trading Betances for a starter, you think theres any chance of that? I feel like the Dodgers have enough young starters in AAA to make something work

Jeff Sullivan

9:26

Don't know what the appetite is right now for a power reliever who can't throw a strike. Betances is great but he's stuck in a worrisome slump. Timing doesn't feel right

Attila the Hunplugged

9:26

What do you make of Black's comments on Dahl? If he keeps hitting like he is, I don't see how they keep him down. Parra can't keep this up, and Dahl's just better, no?

Jeff Sullivan

9:27

It's already a crowded outfield, and Dahl needs to play a bunch. Performance and health will dictate how this goes. Dahl still needs some weeks to get up to speed

The Average Sports Fan

9:27

How would you grade the sales job of the White Sox?

Jeff Sullivan

9:27

It's been going extremely well, but then, they've had an unusually valuable crop of assets to move.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

9:28

What is the worst take you ever saw on a trade? (Inspired by someone in the media opining that NY had to deal Blake Rutherford to make room for Harper in the 2019 Harper/Frazier/Judge OF.)

Jeff Sullivan

9:28

That is a bad take

But I'll go retroactive and point to everyone who said the Mariners got screwed when they traded Griffey Jr.

I mean, it was kind of understandable at the time, but, wow

vimarkings

9:29

Why are the Blue Jays still a playoff possibility.

Jeff Sullivan

9:29

Because they are not bad

MN Bartolo

9:29

Do you foresee the Twins making any moves before the deadline? Maybe bullpen help?

Jeff Sullivan

9:29

I think they do some very boring stuff. They're not going to make any splashes. Would've liked to see them get Roe instead but that's pretty damn minor

next year feels amazing

9:30

Cubs have interest in Phelps but I can't help but feel they could have expanded the Eloy package to get Kahnle. Something like Candelario and De La Cruz or Justin Steele. Thoughts?

Jeff Sullivan

9:30

I'm sure Kahnle's name came up. Maybe they just don't like him as much as the Yankees do. Maybe they'd prefer a reliever who can go more than one inning at a time

MAS

9:30

What is your take on the Yankkkes/White Sox trade? Big upgrade for Yankes bullpen but Frazier as a 1B? Meh. And Rutherford is a pretty valuable chip.

Jeff Sullivan

9:31

I don't think this locks Frazier in at 1B. And now it seems like the Yankees have an unbelievable bullpen. Going to write about that when this chat is over

Roberto

9:31

With the relative lack of return on the JD Mart deal, how can we expect other teams, both buyers and sellers, to adjust moving forward?

Jeff Sullivan

9:32

Pitching will remain expensive. Bats, on the other hand, seldom get big return packages around now. Probably related to how you can increase a pitcher's relative playing time in the playoffs, but you can't do that for a hitter

Jack

9:33

Evan Longoria's career:

VS RHP: .266/.334/.475

VS LHP: .283/.365/.521

Evan Longoria's 2017:

VS RHP: .292/.329/.477

VS LHP: .202/.301/.375

My question is: What the hell?

Jeff Sullivan

9:33

.216 BABIP!

9:34

But also way, way more grounders against lefties than ever. Small enough sample it might not be anything, but he wasn't great against lefties last season, either. Something has been changing here

Evan

9:34

Jeff, it seems like teams are moving quickly this year before the deadline. Four major moves by July 19th seems like a lot. Any thoughts as to why? And will we still get a flurry of activity on July 31?

Jeff Sullivan

9:36

I don't know how much activity there will actually be on July 31, because there are still so many teams seemingly caught in the middle. That's going to depend on the standings. But as for the recent big moves -- it seems like teams trading for players should want to have them for as long as possible. So they're incentivized to try to get things done earlier on. Trades now might be easier to negotiate than ever, since every team has similar evaluation tools, so it's possible there's just less value in hanging onto an asset until the last possible hour

ledwards

9:36

Does it even make sense for the Dodgers to make a deal? I could see adding a LH-RP at a reasonable price... don't quite see a reason to move Verdugo, Buehler, or Alvarez for a marginal upgrade.

Jeff Sullivan

9:37

They could probably stand to make an improvement in the bullpen, but, yeah, they're not desperate for anything. If they have a problem, it's a problem of having too many talented young players. Might just make sense eventually to consolidate

Luke

9:37

Zach Britton, what kind of package does he bring? A top 50 guy?

Jeff Sullivan

9:37

Depends how quickly he can get back to being dominant. Clock is ticking

9:38

If scouts tomorrow see him and say he looks like himself, yeah, he'll get a haul

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