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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/28/17
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Ryan Minor
10:19
Where do you stand on Jay-Z' s claim that he "made the Yankee hat more famous then the Yankee game"
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Preposterous
Max
10:20
I saw a headline saying "Rangers WILL trade Darvish by Monday." Does this mean they already have an acceptable offer on the table and are using it as leverage for a better deal, or is it something else?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
I'm going to guess that was a headline written to twist the words of existing reports, which say the Rangers strongly believe they'll make a trade
10:21
Doubt that article offered any new information of its own.
But the Rangers will find an offer that's better than any compensation they would otherwise stand to receive
GK
10:21
Clint Frazier has walked twice in 77 PAs. He always had pretty good walk rates in the minors, so is this probably a small sample size issue? Or is it a sign of something that might eventually come back to bite him?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
The samples are small but his actual discipline metrics are terrific. He hasn't been chasing. His walks will look more normal eventually
PTBNL
10:22
As a Red Sox fan, I'm sad :( 6-12 in our last 18, nobody is hitting, and now Price is back on the shelf. Starting to feel like NYY might take the division.
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
I'll point out that, by BaseRuns, the Yankees have been the better team already by an awful lot
10:23
The Red Sox have a 72 wRC+ in July, worst in baseball
(The Astros are at a hilarious 157)
(That's more than twice as high)
Dylan
10:23
Lucas Duda is going to carry the Rays to the World Series
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
That would be neat!
mtsw
10:24
Did we underestimate how changes to the QO would make the divide between buyers and sellers more stark? Seems like teams standing pat makes a lot less sense on the borderline-seller side now.
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
Well, there's less compensation to be gained, but that also means there's less value to be gained through a trade. Trading teams no longer have to try to offer more value than a high comp pick. They're still negotiating against one another, of course
J
10:27
Gray has the same amount of years of control as Miller had when he was dealt, but shouldn't Gray be worth more since he's a SP?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Yes, and Gray will go for more
Yung Gamel
10:27
Do you think Jerry deals for Gray? Whether or not he should, does he like Kyle Lewis too much and believe in the longevity of his core too much to pull the trigger?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
My understanding is the Mariners are prepared to pay what they can to get Gray. It's an aggressive pursuit. It'll come down to whether another team plays some prospect trump card that the Mariners don't have
TJ
10:30
Is Travis Shaw this good? If he this is legit, did he change anything in his approach? I'm a little confused by his success.
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
I think he's a slightly better version of the hitter he already was in 2015. Going to the worse league and a much worse division probably helped
Mike
10:31
Do you buyers with good systems have their prospect quality held against them by sellers? It seems insane for the A's to be demanding Torres or Frazier from the Yankees when they're not going to get guys of that quality from other orgs that don't have that type of prospect. Or is it just a negotiating tactic?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
It's all a negotiating tactic. GMs will try to convince other GMs with deep farm systems that they can afford to trade from a position of depth, but said other GMs aren't stupid. They all understand the value of a highly-ranked prospect
AJ
10:33
Where does Darvish end up? If anywhere?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
I feel like the Astros would make a lot of sense if the two sides could get over any intra-Texas awkwardness
10:34
And I suppose the Red Sox do now count as a stronger fit than before
CaptainPeanutbutter
10:35
Have the redsox ever disclosed what the actual injury that price has been dealing with?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
There's almost no way he's not dealing with an at least partially torn UCL
John
10:36
Would getting Darvish help in landing Otani for Yankees? Is Mateo + Tate back to Texas enough?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Getting Darvish for 2017 won't mean anything regarding Otani in 2018
hoju
10:37
Would a Jaime Garcia trade be the saddest and quickest white flag in memory?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
It's objectively sad and hilarious that the Twins are in this position, but in reality, their odds *have* gotten dramatically worse in the last few days. So it makes sense that their trading position would have changed
mtsw
10:37
At what point do we have to look at the ENORMOUS (~1.50 points of ERA) split between Caleb Joseph and Welington Castillo's catcher ERA as a cause of the Orioles' pitching struggles?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
I think everyone has at least some understanding that Caleb Joseph is a good defensive catcher, while Welington Castillo is a terrible one
And it just so happens that Joseph has been the better hitter this season, too!
Big Joey
10:39
I know it's nearly impossible to accurately project a prospect, but what do you think Moncada's peak season will look like? I've been seeing a lot of Melvin Upton comparisons.... 265  20HR 30SB is not what I thought Moncada's hype was all about.
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
The hype is because he's laden with outstanding tools. So that means his ceiling is super high if he finds more consistent contact. Upton is a reasonable comp, and it looks a lot better if you think of that as sort of a 50th-percentile projection.
Collin
10:41
Do you think Chacin will be moved?
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