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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/6/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
I was all prepared to bury the Nationals, and then they came back from down 9-0. That's the Marlins for you!
:/
9:07
how long can the mariners pretend Ryon Healy is not a 0 WAR player and try something else?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
The Healy thing is really not going very well
9:08
Not because he's a bad player, but because he's an entirely unimproved player
Meanwhile Triple-A Vogelbach is slugging .547 with 52 walks and 36 strikeouts
9:09
The Mariners are fooling themselves if they believe Healy is the meaningfully superior everyday player
Sam
9:09
Does the Ranger's Ronald Guzman profile as a poor man's Brandon Belt? If not, what's his ceiling?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
You're getting pretty poor, here
Dollar store Brandon Belt
9:11
Belt destroyed the minors, and always drew plenty of walks. Guzman's career walk rate is in the single digits
Right now I don't look at Guzman and see a quality future regular
Jack
9:12
If they don’t get hot over the next few weeks, should the Nationals seriously consider selling? I know they already made a buyer’s move in acquiring Herrera, but should they maybe pull a Twins from last year and flip him before the deadline? Despite his relatively disappointing season, I’d imagine they could still drum up a serious bidding war if they let teams know Harper was available, right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
The Nationals would have to lose several more games of ground. As is, their playoff odds are actually 63%, and even if you're somewhat skeptical, the history here is encouraging
9:13
They're likely to get healthier and unless they go like winless until the All-Star break, they're too talented to take apart
I'm Keith Hernandez
9:14
How soon does Kyle Tucker come up to the bigs??
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
I'll say somewhere in the vicinity of the trade deadline, unless the Astros make a deal for an OF. Tucker has long been the favorite to finish the season as the Astros' regular LF
mike
9:15
What would it take for the Yankees to get degrom without including Torres?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
I don't say this to be annoying, but I genuinely don't think the Mets and Yankees would be able to reach an agreement
9:16
I mean, on paper they could, because the Yankees have the prospects, but I don't think the Mets would be willing to send deGrom across town. Teams still care about this stuff for some reason
stever20
9:16
what do you make about the huge spike in hard hit ball % this season?  It's gone up 1st half of season:
2010 29.3
2011 23.8
2012 28.4
2013 30.4
2014 29.9
2015 28.6
2016 31.3
2017 32.2
2018 35.6
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
So, on the one hand, league-average exit velocity is also up a little bit
You're also seeing a few more balls hit in the air
9:19
On the other hand, soft/medium/hard are subjective categorizations, and you can see an almost identical jump between 2015-2016. I think hitters overall are probably hitting the ball a little bit harder, but much of the difference here has been turning medium contact into hard contact
9:20
Soft contact has remained basically steady. So I think a few fliners are being pushed across the hard-contact threshold, if that makes sense
Tom
9:20
What Rangers' position players have positive trade value other than Mazara?  Choo and Andrus are on bad contracts. Beltre and Chirinos have been often injured. Odor and Profar haven't reclaimed any value. DeShields cannot find his stroke. What would Gallo fetch?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
For whatever it's worth, if it weren't for the injury, I think Andrus might've become tradeable. He's restored a lot of his previously lost value
Profar and Beltre, in theory, could get something. Profar is getting his career back on track
9:22
I don't think Gallo would get very much right now. There would be a market for him, but not so much among midseason contenders. More of a winter consideration
Ross
9:23
So what should the Blue Jays do about Donaldson? He’s been hurt most of the year, hasn’t been very good when he has played, recently had another setback and now may not even be back before the trade deadline now. I can’t imagine they’ll be able to get much for him. There doesn’t look to be a huge market for third basemen, and there are also guys like Machado, Moustakas and Beltre out there for the teams who are looking for one. Even though the Jays are obviously in a seller’s position, should they just keep him and make him a qualifying offer after the season? If you’re Donaldson’s agent, there’s no way you let him turn down a QO after this season, right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
Right now I do think you keep him and offer the QO. Not much of a market for a broken-down player, but the Jays could afford to have Donaldson around in 2019 if that's the way things broke. You sort of do a DH/3B alternating swap
9:27
At the same time I don't think it's a given that Donaldson would accept the QO. Even after the year that he's had, I could see someone in the market potentially offering $20m+ as a pillow contract. Still a lot of upside in there if you believe you can help him keep his legs healthy
Jim
9:27
Andujar for Nick Pivetta. Who says no?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Yankees wouldn't and shouldn't do it
9:28
You take the young position player over the young starting pitcher almost every single time
Vineet
9:29
The Brewers could probably do nothing at the deadline and be Ok? No reason to make a big push right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
I don't think they necessarily have to make a splash, but they're not *that* far clear of the wild card, to say nothing of the Cubs
9:30
There's a ton of value in winning the division outright, and the Brewers are short a starter, especially with Jimmy Nelson seemingly not all that close
I'd be shocked if the Brewers didn't make at least one semi-significant trade
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