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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/6/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:30
And they're my current deGrom favorite, if the Mets choose to go that way
Rob
9:31
Which helps the Brewers more this year in their run for a playoff spot:  Machado or Degrom.  If you knew they were for sure going to make the playoffs, who would you want then?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
I think it's deGrom. More of a difference-maker in October
There's a reason why pitchers get more of a deadline premium than hitters
jason
9:32
Who do you think the Yankees go after this offseason with all the money they have to spend
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
Can we talk about the midseason Yankees first?
zvazda
9:32
I believe a couple years ago you (or Matt) said that you would record another podcast with Matt Carruth if the Mariners made the playoffs... was that only for that year or is that still true?
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
Did we say that?
We're not going to do that
9:33
And even if we did, it would be considerably less useful for you, because we are no longer devoted Mariners fans
You would probably hate it!
Bill G
9:33
Hi Jeff.  Thanks for doing these chats.  Max Kepler was forecast by many to break out this year, that has not happened especially against RHP.  What do you see?  Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
We all pretend we can predict breakouts. We cannot predict breakouts. The most we can do is identify breakouts that have quietly already begun
9:34
Like, Blake Snell. He broke out in the second half of 2017. Now he's great! But he was already more or less great
9:35
If it makes you feel better, here are Kepler's expected wOBAs over the years: .291, .302, .323
9:36
He *has* gotten better, in a way the surface numbers are hiding. His walks are up and his strikeouts are down, and that's a plus
9:37
You'd hope that, maybe soon, he can turn on the Benintendi-style power
Zonk
9:39
Do you see a way out of the Dexter Fowler situation?  A trade perhaps with St. Louis eating some money?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
One possibility would be a bad-contract swap -- would Fowler like to return to Colorado? Come on down, Ian Desmond!
9:41
Desmond's no good, either, but he'd at least offer the Cardinals a greater amount of versatility, or something
9:42
Otherwise, yeah, you're paying down his deal and letting someone else take him. Fowler is sinking too quickly on the St. Louis depth chart to earn his way back into good graces. Hard to justify playing him now over Bader, and if Fowler isn't playing, how are his numbers supposed to improve?
Tim
9:43
It’s fair to say the Mariners and their luck dragons have ruined this season, right? Before the season, we were all saying thank god for the second wild card, because while four AL playoff teams seemed certain, at least the race for the second wild card should be fun and wide open. But nope, instead we already know the five AL playoff teams halfway through the season, and MLB has an attendance crisis in part because two thirds of the AL are already out of the playoff race. Way to go, Mariners. Jerks.
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
The National League is fun!
9:44
I don't think anyone ever figured the two league wild cards would win a hundred games
At the same time, Safeco is selling an awful lot of tickets. A fan base is currently being restored, which is good
BHAM
9:45
Jesse Winker has an ISO over .200 in his last 100 PAs. Is that real and sustainable improvement? Or is his reality a number closer to .100?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
No, I think Winker is a solid hitter all around. Should be good for a roughly .200 ISO and nearly as many walks as strikeouts
The issue is just that the guy can't play defense
9:47
That's a bummer, because I'm really fond of his bat
Mature Adult
9:48
Is T.J. McFarland more valuable than some of the stats suggest? He is doing his best 1999-2000 Derek Lowe impression right now.
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
2017 McFarland: 54 innings, 29 strikeouts, 11 unintentional walks, 42 runs
2018 McFarland: 54.1 innings, 29 strikeouts, 11 unintentional walks, 13 runs
9:49
That's something we all just discovered at the same time
Let's not collectively get our hopes up about TJ McFarland
Kyle
9:49
Are the Reds good?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
No
9:50
They are simply better than dreadful
They are a team with good players, but still too many bad players
borksadork
9:51
How do you see Victor Robles projecting out?  Do you have an active comp?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
I don't have a comp, especially because Robles has been hurt this season
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