Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/7/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
9:06
Sorry for that delay, was finishing a podcast
Stuafoo
9:06
Dave made an interesting claim recently that Brandon Belt might be the player who is hurt most by their home ballpark. Who else would be on that list?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
So I actually kind of disagree with Dave there
It's true that Belt has hit twice as many home runs on the road as he has at home, over his career. But his career home wOBA is .359. His career road wOBA is .348!
Even unadjusted for park, Belt has been more productive in San Francisco. Worse power, so worse reputation, but he's been good
9:10
Tried to do some quick side research that didn't work. Sooooo that's a bummer
But a name that at least used to come to mind is Christian Yelich
Yelich at home: .335 wOBA. Yelich on the road: .357
9:11
The park has changed a little bit to become more favorable, but under other circumstances, he'd be more widely recognized as a star
Q&A
9:11
Thanks for the chat! What are your thoughts on Tanaka of late? Has he turned a corner?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
I'm unconvinced anything was actually wrong. I mean, it's bad to give up so many home runs, but I could never find a reason. The stuff was fine. The other results were fine. Now the home runs have just kind of gone away. Similar to Mike Fiers. There's a reason why we consider home-run rate one of the least stable metrics out of all of them
JTT
9:13
Jeff, let’s say you were gifted a MLB team this offseason. Would you be level headed and run it responsibly, or could you not resist the urge to go out and acquire your favorite players and past their prime former favorite players? Sign Ichiro, trade for James Paxton and Keon Broxton regardless of the cost
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
No, I wouldn't do that. For one thing, the Mariners and Brewers know what they have in Paxton and Broxton. I'd just try to have the organization develop my new favorite players. Always move forward, and whatnot
Q&A
9:14
How do you view Peacock? Does Houston really need another starter? Can he be the guy?
Jeff Sullivan
I think he's become very good. I also think he's inefficient and maybe best utilized as just another Devenski type, but if Houston is comfortable with it, I could see Peacock becoming kind of a four- or five-inning starter down the stretch and in the playoffs, with the bullpen assuming more of the burden
9:15
The Astros bullpen is so deep that they don't need so many innings from the staff
matt
9:16
How do you think Aaron Nola will fare in the second half?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
He's good, he seems healthy, and he's throwing harder than ever. Good second half coming
Daniel
9:16
Realistically, what are the chances Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits? Or even 2500?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
Currently, he's at 1,980
9:17
His bat is aging okay, but he doesn't do anything else particularly well, so he's not someone you have to try to keep in the lineup as he declines
Decent shot at 2,500 within three years, but 3,000 strikes me as a fantasy
Ben
9:18
So, 3 hour rain delays without rain are the worst type of rain delays.
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
At least the second one of these we've had this year. Maybe there've been more. I don't have an actual opinion that isn't pure hindsight, but it's never a good look
Jordan
9:20
I’ve asked this in every chat (here and MLBTR) and haven’t received an answer so I’m starting to wonder if it’s coming across as trolling lol, anyway….
If the Jays were to market Donaldson would the framework of something to the respect of Devers & Raudes for Donaldson & Happ/Estrata/Liriano work for both sides?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Leaving aside divisional concerns, I'm not sure the Red Sox would go there. Donaldson hasn't been playing at his peak, and there are going to be cheaper 3B alternatives that don't cost the organization one of the better prospects around
9:22
Given the Red Sox' position, they could add Todd Frazier and call it good
Q&A
9:22
Is Andrew Miller the most underrated franchise player? Besides being awesome on and off the field, he leaves every franchise better when the team trades him (w/ exception to Marlins?). Weird to think of a reliever this way but he's incredible
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
It's probably still Paul Goldschmidt
It's always going to be Paul Goldschmidt
Cheese
9:23
Who is a realistic SP for the Dodgers, and what does it cost to get him.  Verdugo + Calhoun plus a minor piece for Gray?  Would they go for an all LHP playoff rotation if they can get Quintana?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
I remain unconvinced the Dodgers actually need a front-line starter. I'm also unconvinced they'd pay the price for one. Their depth is still insane and Kershaw/Wood/Hill is fantastic
I could see them instead making a package move for a reliever and an outfielder
Dan
9:24
Rich Hill's player page:
6/16 - Rich Hill Is Out Of Whack - Jeff Sullivan
7/6 - Rich Hill Got Good Again - Jeff Sullivan

Quick turnaround. Why doesn't everyone just add a cutter and become amazing?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
Something we probably don't appreciate enough: players are always going through slumps and hot streaks. They don't happen by accident. There are real things going on; they're just often temporary
Q&A
9:26
How do you compare Judge and Bellinger outside of the batter's box? Huge Yankees fan so have seen the arm and defense on Judge but see very little written on both outside of dingers...
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
I can tell you that, currently, Bellinger has the higher Statcast sprint speed
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