Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/7/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:52
The thinking has been that, if you're okay, you can sneak into the wild card, and then anything can happen. But there's so much parity that just being okay doesn't work. You have to get good
Marty McFly
9:52
Jeff, what can you tell me about Mark Trumbo? He hit 49 homers last year and in the year of the long ball he's at 13.
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
The year before last year, he hit 22
He's better than this, but he isn't actually very good
Matty P
9:53
Hey Jeff, what baseball player do you think you would be friends with in real life?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Can I count some minor-league nobody?
9:54
My go-to answer is Michael Saunders
Jobu
9:54
What would be a realistic package for the Cubs to land Verlander?  One of Schwarber/Baez/Almora and a couple prospects? Can they do it without including Eloy Jimenez?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
If the Cubs actually gave the Tigers substantial talent without asking them to pick up salary, I think the Tigers would go for that in a heartbeat
9:55
Schwarber would be a fascinating centerpiece. Bad year for him, but also bad year for Verlander. Cubs could say they only gave up their guy for an ace; Tigers could say they only gave up their guy for a wunderkind
Both, obviously, would be lies
9:56
But useful for PR purposes
Q&A
9:56
Is AJ Reed a legitimate prospect? Does he help deepen Astros lineup? Doesn't move the needle enough?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Doesn't do enough
Isaac
9:56
Hey Jeff - regarding your article on Verlander's HH rate from the other day - Tigers sluggers Miggy, Upton, V.Mart, and of course, Castellanos, all have incredibly hard hit rates... what's going on in DET? Is it the ballpark?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
yeah, there's something weird happening there
9:57
Maybe it's all actually true, but I suspect there's some kind of scorer bias
Jeff's Friend
9:57
Aaron. Judge. Is the guy really a .300 hitter like his xBA might suggest?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Giancarlo Stanton has topped out at .290, and his career average is .266. I figure Judge will encounter some kind of slump sometime soon
The ballpark helps -- he can mis-hit some balls out to right field. But batting .300 these days as a high-strikeout hitter is incredibly challenging
Daniel
9:59
More likely: Cubs acquire Quintana/Gray or Brewers acquire Quintana/Gray
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Feel like the answer is Cubs
Sean
9:59
How about a couple second-half "bold" predictions?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Aaron Judge won't lead the majors in second-half WAR
Is that bold? I don't even know if that's bold
Q&A
10:01
What are your thoughts on Logan Morrison? Is he a legit masher now? Where does he go next year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
It's funny to me in hindsight how much crap we gave the Jays for Smoak, the Rays for Morrison, and the A's for Alonso
Surprise! They're all amazing!
10:02
I think Morrison has taken a legitimate step forward, although he still won't be valued all that high in free agency because of the longer, mediocre track record. It wouldn't be a *complete* surprise to see him re-signed
Matt jardine
10:02
What's your take on the royals and where they're currently sitting? Would you expect to see them but or sell before the deadline
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
Almost impossible to see them selling. They're currently in a wild-card spot. Why would they give that up?
As you could guess, I still don't think the Royals are actually very good, but they know what they're facing. This is their last go, very possibly. Unless things come apart, they'll add minor pieces
Gary
10:05
Why Mookie hit so many pop ups?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
Over the last three years, 230 players have batted at least 1,000 times. By IFFB%, Betts ranks in 40th place
Now, that's a higher rate than average, but it's not so uncommon for a guy who's more of a fly-ball bat. Betts is at 12.3% over the three years. Kevin Kiermaier leads the way at 17.9%
Kevin
10:08
So Blake Parker was demoted...?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Seems like somebody somewhere along the line made a typo. Parker Bridwell was demoted
Q&A
10:09
Is Whit Merrifield a legit starter? Seems like a nice bump or KC hitting leadoff - doubles, stolen bases, etc.
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Runs well, seems to defend pretty well, makes contact. Low-ceiling kind of guy, but for now he can play every day
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