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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/8/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:41
I just have to think they come to their senses and move Teheran in the coming weeks. I don't get the argument for keeping him
Wardo
10:42
Chris Sale is running a career-low BABIP and a career-low K rate. All of the projections have his Ks coming back up. What if this is the new Chris Sale... is his 3.58 xFIP a little more indicative of what to expect going forward?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Sale hasn't lost his old ability level. He's doing this on purpose, to try to be more efficient with a better defense behind him. I suspect that, if he starts to wobble, he'll just go back to being overwhelming
Inquiring Minds Want to Know
10:43
Who under 20 is the next Trout??
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Nobody
Mark
10:43
Is there a more depressing team in all of pro sports than the Seattle Mariners?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Yes
Erik
10:44
When (in terms of playoff odds) would you say a team should go from buyers to sellers at the deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
Depends on individual circumstances, but if you're below 10-15%, you shouldn't fool yourself
Frowny McSadface
10:44
It's July 8th, and Bud Norris (whose not even on the team anymore) still ranks 4th among Braves hitters with a 104 wRC+ and 8th with 0.3 batting WAR. No question, just depressed.
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
On the plus side, Erick Aybar isn't playing like literally you anymore
FireDrayton
10:45
Re: Bregman at SS in Fresno, Luhnow said a couple days ago it was so that he could get comfortable at the plate at a new level without having to worry about a new position at the same time. Luhnow acknowledged that now that Bregman is clearly OK at the plate, they'll start moving him around.
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
There we go. Everything checks out. Bregman rocks
Trea Turner
10:45
Any chance I get back to the show this year before September Call-ups?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Today!
Rick C
10:46
With Vizcaino's recent struggles, is his trade value down enough that it might make more sense for the Braves to keep him at this point?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
Well, they shouldn't trade him today. But they still have a few weeks and he misses enough bats that it shouldn't be too hard for him to rebuild value fast
10:47
I was looking at him yesterday. Didn't write anything, but I couldn't find a glaring problem. Obviously, he hasn't thrown strikes, but his delivery looks the same. The stuff is the same. Hitters have laid off more would-be balls but I think that's more of a blip than a concern
Erik
10:48
Will Mike Trout ever agitate for a trade, or is he just too nice? Hard to remember any play this good on a team this hopeless for this long in any sport, ever.
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
I think players start getting deeply frustrated around 30-31. That's when they realize they don't have all that much time left. Trout has time left
Baltimoron
10:49
People around these parts seem to think trading Trumbo can fetch a #3-4 starter. That seems crazy. What kind of value (if any) does Trumbo actually have as a one-dimensional bat rental?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
Not much. He's still Mark Trumbo. And the Orioles are in first place!
Malcolm
10:51
Pitch me a Danny Valencia trade you like for both sides.
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
Valencia and Hill to the Mets for Conforto and the required dump of Jose Reyes
Guest
10:52
My biggest fear is growing old. What's yours?
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
deterioration of mental acuity
10:53
and spiders that jump
James
10:53
The Matt Carpenter injury is an enormous blow to the Cardinals... if they become sellers, what kind of return could they get for guys like Jaime Garcia, Matt Adams, Jhonny Peralta, and Brandon Moss (assuming health for the latter two)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
I don't accept the premise that the Cardinals would ever sell
Sean P
10:54
Do you think Javy Baez might end up being a better player than Addison Russell?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
I'd put the odds at maybe 30%. I much prefer Russell's plate approach and shortstop defense
Alex
10:55
Hey Jeff. So Paxton has 2 strikeouts in each of his last two outings... any cause for concern? Is he going back to being the old Paxton, a guy with tantalizing talent, but no results?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
He's still throwing strikes and he's still throwing with crazy velocity, so he's neat. Not a shock he struggled to get strikeouts against the Royals. He still is searching for reliable secondary stuff
Erik
10:56
Do GMs and other executives have strong enough tendencies that it should affect our prediction of what they'll do at the deadline? Or do they all act more or less similarly and "rationally"? Would we ever say, for example, "The Cubs should do x, but they have Theo Epstein, who always does y, so they'll do y"?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
I think you can have general senses. Dombrowski has a style. The A's have a style. The Indians have a style. But mostly, executives will act on the information they have to try to make the best moves possible
A. Reitz
10:58
As a Cardinals fan, everyone know about A. Diaz 4 years ago when he signed (understandable if some bloggers didn't). When he came over, he hadn't played in almost 18 months, it took him some time to adjust. Something clicked after he was DFA'd and he absolutely raked from that point on and hasn't stopped. To say, it makes no sense, means you haven't tracked his career. Sure, he can't be THIS good, but he's a damn fine player and anyone that says it might be luck...well.
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
Overnight, Diaz went from bad hitter to good hitter. It's legitimately stunning. His very organization DFAd him in favor of Dan Johnson.
10:59
That "something" you refer to -- that's exactly the miracle
Guest
10:59
Some people view morality as something made up by inferior people to hold back superior people. Is there anything to this?
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
We're born with an innate sense of morality. The explicit rules are made up, and they vary, but the idea itself is natural
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