Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/11/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Feels like it's been a while
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
9:06
I appreciate you, Jeff.  You make Fridays so much better.
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
/pats self on back
9:07
Let's just go ahead and appreciate me for the next couple of hours
David Keys
9:07
Rhys Hoskins, bust?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Rhys Hoskins, quality player
Might get a little overrated in the short term given how bad the Phillies have been to this point, but there's not much not to like
Forrest
9:08
How reliable is baserunning data (compared to defense, hitting, and pitching) and:

Is it possible Trouts WAR total is inflated by an otherworldly (but unreliable) BsR?

Case in point:
-Trout had 6th highest BsR season of all time his rookie year (in just 130 games).
-Chase Utley has 16th highest BsR of all-time with just 150 career SB's (WTF?)
-Trout is 4th best base runner of all-time thru age 25 season
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Comparing present-day players to historical players has its shortcomings, because the baserunning methodology changed somewhere around 2002
9:09
If I'm not mistaken, pre-2002, players are given baserunning credit only for steals. More recently, we've been able to fold in UBR and double-play stuff
9:10
So it's better to just look at the overall baserunning metric from 2002 on. Otherwise, if you want to go back further, only look at wSB
Alternatively, I think Baseball-Reference's baserunning stat tries to be somewhat consistent throughout, as best as it can
Mr. Nor'easter
9:11
Do you think that Hicks will out-produce Gardner ROS in run production in the Yankee’s lineup? Gardner’s early season power has faded, but Hicks is coming off an injury.
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
I think they're likely to be quite similar, with Hicks getting a slight advantage on account of being a switch-hitter
RK
9:12
If you were the Dodgers, would you even want Adrian Gonzalez to return?  think there's a chance he's DFAd?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
I think the Dodgers feel a very, very low sense of urgency here
9:13
But healthy Gonzalez can still be a modestly helpful player, so they'd probably like to have him available for the playoffs as a reserve
Baseball Fan #1
9:13
Any fun plans with Ben when he comes to visit you?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
Sit in eclipse traffic forever
It's going to be a catastrophe
JTT
9:14
So Heyward still can't hit, 6 years left on his deal. This is going to get ugly, right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Past 900 plate appearances now in which Jason Heyward has hit like a fourth outfielder
9:16
As long as he can preserve his contact and athleticism, he'll keep himself from becoming a zero, so this won't end up, like, Pujols or Cabrera-level bad. But yeah, this has never looked worse, so far
Joey Gallo
9:16
Everyone talks about my elite TTO ability, but what about my elite baserunning so far?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
It's probably a fluke, for the most part, but Gallo's athleticism is definitely underrated as people focus on the other two things
9:17
Pretty obvious that Gallo will always run a good wGDP
Vince Clortho
9:17
If current trends hold, the first immaculate game will be pitched in the year 2____
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
never
AK
9:17
No question, just want to say you and your chat were missed last week <3
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
Send all such complaints to MR DAVID APPELMAN
Detroit's Most Wanted
9:18
Hey Jeff, thanks for the chat. Tyler Glasnow has been baffling AAA hitters for the last month. When will the Pirates make the call and give him another chance?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
It really can't be far off
9:19
Glasnow, in the recent past, has struggled to throw 60% strikes
This year in Triple-A, he's at 65%, with an extremely low contact rate
The Pirates probably want to see if the muscle memory holds up, but there are at least these signs that Glasnow has made the necessary improvement
The Average Sports Fan
9:20
I do not have a great understanding of the advanced fielding metrics.  But it seems that in a small sample, Moncada is proving to be a average or better 2b.   Am I looking at it correctly?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
He has a DRS and a UZR of +1, so that's more good than bad. But it's also based on 164 innings, so it's effectively meaningless
LegallyEagle
9:21
What are the chances Houston blows their lead in the AL? It seems like a legitimate possibility, albeit still small (for now).
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