Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/11/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:02
I think it's mostly a midseason thing -- pitcher value is elevated around the trade deadline because pitcher playing time can be more disproportionately leveraged in the playoffs
nelson
10:03
Now that the White Sox have assumed the throne as the best team in the American League, what should we expect tonight from Reynaldo Lopez?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
Strikeouts and walks
Jim
10:03
At what point do we believe in the Corey Seager defensive metrics? last two years he has basically been top 5 by DEF.
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
I believe that Seager has been an above-average defensive SS. Open question as to how long he'll remain such
Charlie
10:04
If Bsr includes running to first on a single or to second on a double, wouldn't that be counting them twice if both hitting stats and baserunning stats are included in WAR?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but I don't think BsR gives players credit for ordinary hits. It's more about advances
Zane
10:04
If I'm not mistaken, Wilson Contreras has a hamstring injury. How much does this impact the Cubs, and, in turn, the NL Central, which now appears to actually be close?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
The Cubs are still easily the best team over there, and I liked their Avila pickup. So I think they'll be okay, but I'm thankful the division remains as interesting as it is
Jon
10:05
Do you think the Mariners' 2018 (and beyond) strategy differs if they make the playoffs this year or not?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Not meaningfully
Zonk
10:06
What is the latest on Shohei Otani?  Isn't it interesting that the Yankees have been acquiring IFA slots?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
I haven't seen any significant update. Can't check his numbers right now with there being some kind of Baseball-Reference bug. The Yankees might be boosting their own spending capital with Otani in mind, but with how much he'll eventually make from an MLB team, I doubt he'll be swayed by a million dollars here or there up front
JB
10:07
Schwarber at catcher: bad idea, or the worst idea?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
Bad idea
T
10:08
Cameron thinks there's a better chance Stl catches up in the WC.. but Cards fans root for AZ this weekend, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Cards are one back in the division and 5.5 back in the WC. There are like seven weeks left in the season. Seems to me like the division has the clearer path, although I'll note the Cubs and Diamondbacks are now projected to finish with almost identical records
I'd root for Arizona, myself, but mostly, I'd be glad that *someone* will be losing ground
Phil
10:10
Arizona just played a feisty 3 games against the Dodgers. Gotta think that LA prefers a matchup against COL no?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
I would think so, yes, because I believe Arizona has the better baseball team
NYtoLA
10:11
What's your read on Dom Smith?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Ehhh
10:12
I can see how he could benefit from how the ball is flying in the majors, and he's been good at pop-up avoidance against quality competition. But I'm not sold that Smith will be anything special
Jon
10:13
Can you attribute many of Haniger's struggles to his oblique injury? Is that something that usually lingers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I think his timing got borked. His approach after coming back was really quite awful
Chet
10:13
Andrelton Simmons is a star!!
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I hope that more people notice this. The Angels are more than one player
Pat
10:14
As a Rangers fan I am thrilled that we got Willie Calhoun, but suddenly have amassed many LH power bats with Gallo, Mazara, Odor, Calhoun, and eventually Guzman. If you were the GM, who would you keep and who would you trade for upgrades elsewhere?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Odor has a 68 wRC+, and Guzman has yet to see big-league competition. I wouldn't be worried about a logjam yet
Helpful Reader
10:15
Hey when you guys go to that eclipse game don't look right into the eclipse without protective eyewear. You're gonna want to but don't do it!
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
The Volcanoes are very helpfully providing special eclipse glasses to everyone in attendance!
Slugger27
10:15
whats the point of revocable waivers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
To facilitate trades like Jay Bruce going to Cleveland
OdoubleG
10:17
Help settle an argument between friends.  Runners on 1st and 3rd, no out, batter GIDP and a run scores.  My buddy says that the batter generated positive value from that at bat on account of getting the run home.  I say that any positive value from the play was on the account of the runner putting himself in that position and the batter actually had a negative value AB when taking into account the range of potential outcomes from that situation.  Who is right?  (nothing riding on this other than I want to hold it over his head)
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
Run expectancy of the initial situation: 1.73. Run expectancy of the resulting situation, plus the run scored: 1.11
In general, the batter will have done a bad thing
10:19
Now in very specific situations, that grounder can *help* a team win. So it's better to look at this by win expectancy, instead of run expectancy. But it's pretty much always a bad thing to have happen
Kim
10:19
Can you pencil Gamel in as a starting OF for the next few years with a good-ish degree of confidence?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Not sold on him quite yet. I don't think he'd be a disaster, but he has a rather unpleasant combination of walks, strikeouts, and homers
Wax on...
10:20
What percentage of the Dodgers motivation for getting Darvish was to prevent a playoff opponent from having him?
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