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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/12/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:12
Hello friends
Welcome to baseball chat
delayed by ESPN stuff. everybody has wonderful timing!
Bork
9:12
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
Hello friend
Anthony
9:12
Andrew McCutchen HOF odds: over/under 50%?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
At this point I'd say under. He's had some absolutely fantastic seasons but I'm concerned by what's taken place in 2016. If he gets himself back on track, then he's looking good -- he's already a hair north of 40 WAR. But to refer to the old-timey baselines, he's not even at 200 homers or 1,500 hits. Long, long way to go
Jimi
9:15
You're the manager. Before the game, you can guarantee your starter as many strikeouts as you want, but each strikeout will be an eight pitch at bat. How many do you sign up for?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
How's my bullpen?
9:16
I'll give him...12 or 13 strikeouts
And if I further get to choose, I'll space those 12 strikeouts evenly over six innings, getting the first two batters in each inning out
Houzer
9:17
Is Girardi missing the forest for the trees?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
I have to figure there's some stuff we don't know, but I lean toward yes. I sort of get the we-want-to-win perspective, but Alex Rodriguez is one of the greatest players in baseball history, and the game is about more than each day's result.
Kim
9:20
Would Vogelbach be as good as Lind if he were called up now?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
I'm actually not convinced, but the two would be very close. Lind still projects for a 101 wRC+, whereas Vogelbach comes in at 97. Lind has been an adequate hitter since the end of April
bzimm22
9:21
Help settle a debate for me. Who was a better hitter, A-Rod or Manny Ramirez? My initial reaction was A-Rod by a mile, but the numbers suggest otherwise.
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
At their respective peaks, Ramirez was a little bit of a better hitter. Rodriguez canceled most if not all of that out by being superior on the bases
And then, of course, there was everything else
9:23
Who else here forgot that Ramirez made his last big-league appearance with the Rays?
And the White Sox! Totally forgot about the White Sox.
Manny
9:24
If the Mariners make a playoff series - and have the flexibility to arrange things in their favor - what *should* their rotation look like?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
Felix, Paxton, Iwakuma, water main break, Felix, Paxton
Matt
9:24
Obligatory question on your thoughts of how the Yanks FO is handling the A-Rod situation.
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
To follow up on earlier, I've tried not to get too invested. I don't *really* care and I'm glad he's at least getting his sendoff tonight. I also recognize that the way I feel about Rodriguez isn't the way everyone else necessarily feels about Rodriguez so who am I to project my opinion on others?
9:26
More than anything I'm grateful for Rodriguez giving the game so much color. Did it for two decades. Wasn't always good! Was always entertainment. There's a reason people get sucked into tabloids and soap operas, and Rodriguez lent the game some of that character
JTT
9:27
Jeff, does your dad like baseball? If so, what are his stances on typical the hotbutton issues for dads. The DH, interleague play and world series games being played at night. Does he have an affinity for white players wearing stirrups/high socks?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
My dad died in a plane crash in 1991!
Thanks a lot, JTT!
(awkward silence)
9:28
To my knowledge my dad didn't know anything about baseball. I think he did play tennis. But maybe that was just because of a hat he wore.
Alex
9:28
What would be the easiest 2 pitch arsenal to master? Fastball changeup?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Based on both theory and practice I think we have to say two-seamer/slider
9:30
Those pitchers are everywhere. Changeups are super hard to pick up. Maybe that's just my own personal experience since I don't have big giant fingers, but I don't think it's a coincidence that so many pitchers end up in the bullpen because they can't develop a reliable offspeed weapon
A four-seamer is even easier to throw than a two-seamer but my sense is that a two-seamer is more forgiving
Snowflake
9:30
Who would win a game of aquatic baseball, Team Crabs or Team Octopi?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Team Octopi
Alex
9:31
Are you wearing your bright salmon shirt
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
too god damn hot already :(
Nick
9:31
Can you clear something up for me. What's the difference in Bumgarner and Sale's WAR. Bumgarner has more innings and a lower FIP, yet the same WAR. Is FIP not park/league adjusted? If not what similar stats are?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Raw FIP is not park-adjusted, which is why I always love looking at FIP- (which is). Bumgarner pitches in a very pitcher-friendly environment. Sale pitches in the bed of a pickup truck. So while Bumgarner has the better FIP by 36 points, Sale has the better FIP-, by two points
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